Don’t celebrate China’s stimulus just yet
先别急着庆祝中国的经济刺激政策

媒体报道称,中央政府可能很快会额外借款 2 万亿元人民币(合 2,850 亿美元),约占国内生产总值的 1.5%。其中一半将用于帮助地方政府处理债务,另一半将用于帮助消费者,包括直接向有一个以上孩子的家庭发放补助。
2024/10/07 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #Economist #外媒 #经济 #股市

章立言:被掩盖的真相——货币紧缩正推中国濒临金融危机

从流通基础货币/实际GDP的比值看——真正货币宽松水平,美国是中国的2.57倍,即中国人民币的基础货币供给宽松度仅为美元的38.9%。中国经济实际是基础货币严重紧缩!
2024/07/15 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #经济 #股市 #地产

How a Fading Japan Regained Its Superpowers
衰落的日本如何重获超级大国地位

When I moved to Japan, the country was searching for a way out of a long era of economic decline. The Japanese had called it *ushinawareta junen* — the Lost Decade. But they were wrong. The first Lost Decade would become a second, and then a third. 我搬到日本时,日本正在寻找摆脱长期经济衰退的出路。日本人称之为 "失去的十年"(ushinawareta junen)。但他们错了。第一个 "失去的十年 "变成了第二个,然后是第三个。
2024/04/25 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #Bloomberg #政治 #外媒 #双语 #经济

In China: The 100-Year Storm on the Horizon and How the Five Big Forces Are Playing Out
在中国:地平线上的百年风暴和五大力量如何演绎

A few years ago, President Xi Jinping started warning that a 100-year big storm is coming. As is typical of the early days of a hurricane, one can now feel it. The circumstances and the mood in China have indisputably changed to become more threatening. These changes are mostly due to big cycle forces. 几年前,习近平主席就开始警告说,一场百年不遇的大风暴即将来临。正如典型的飓风初期一样,人们现在可以感受到它的到来。中国的环境和情绪无可争议地发生了变化,变得更具威胁性。这些变化主要是大周期力量造成的。
2024/03/31 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #外媒 #双语 #经济

Apple is right not to rush headlong into generative AI
苹果没有急于投入生成式人工智能是正确的决定

China is a bigger problem with no clear solution. Huawei has become a formidable competitor, though in the long run it may be constrained by an America-led ban on sales to it of high-end chips. However big the geopolitical risks, Apple and China are so co-dependent that they may be stuck with one another. 中国是一个更大的问题,没有明确的解决方案。华为已成为一个强大的竞争对手,尽管从长远来看,它可能会受到美国领导的禁止向其销售高端芯片的限制。无论地缘政治风险有多大,苹果和中国之间的相互依赖可能使它们无法摆脱对方。
2024/03/08 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #Economist #双语 #外媒 #手机

A股黑洞背后的“超级魔术”——“贸易顺差”变“货币绞索”

【编者按】此文首次揭示了中国与美国间、货币金融与国民财富间“财富太极”的最大秘密——中国人过去10年拼命奋斗,为什么财富反而缩水了百万亿元计人民币,或者说增加了百万亿元计的债务?这可是14亿中国人人均7.1万元的损失!此文由五位爱国的货币、金融、财政专家(集体化名章立言)集中各自二三十年研究功力、合力破解的天大秘密——“美元人民币超级魔术”是如何绞杀中国国运、吞噬国民财富的,并提出了针对性策略。
2024/02/06 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #经济 #股市

卢麒元:过度资本化与工业化升级

普通经济学研究者,无法精确定义资本三流(流向、流量、流速)的战略含义。而国家级经济专家(决策者),则必须精准定义并测定资本三流,并在战略高度上评估并引导资本三流,以完成国家长治久安的战略目标。请注意基本原理:资本积累率决定经济增长水平。资本积累率狂降,意味着不可遏止的恶性通缩。
2024/01/18 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #经济 #股市 #LQY

2023,全球最多黑天鹅的一年

2023年是全球发生最多黑天鹅事件的一年,包括美股银行危机、日本福岛核事故污染水排海、AI大模型浪潮、马斯克的特斯拉和火箭项目等。中国股市低迷,但AI产业链蓬勃发展。
2024/01/01 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #经济 #股市 #民生

《南方周末》历年新年献词(1997-2022)

《南方周末》创刊于1984年2月11日,是一份立足广东覆盖全国的大型综合性周报。《南方周末》每年都有发表新年献词的传统。 而南方周末的新年贺词中都会回顾上一年典型的新闻事件,或许今天我们通过南方周末的贺词,可以来管窥中国巨变的20年。
2023/12/31 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #民生 #经典阅读

守住不惑的底线,选择做最值得的自己
——南方周末2024新年献词

我们诞生于改革开放初启鹏程的春天里,现实百废初兴、百舸争流,未来充满未知、诸多困惑。也正因如此,穿越惑与不惑的边界,求索东方古国现代文明进步的答案,内蕴于我们的基因与使命。
2023/12/31 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #民生 #经典阅读

The Chinese yuan is losing value, yet gaining ground
中国人民币正在贬值,但同时却在获得更多的支持和认可。

China owes a lot to foreign investment. Long before Foxconn started making iPhones for Apple, manufacturers from Hong Kong tiptoed across the border to Guangdong in search of cheap labour. In 1982 Jetta, a toymaker, opened a spray-painting plant among the nearby lychee orchards of Dongguan, according to “Toy Town”, a book by Sarah Monks. Water for a shower was boiled in a wok; the plant was in a tin shack. At another firm, Ms Monks reports, the workers decided that Mickey Mouse’s nose should be red, not black. 中国在很大程度上要归功于外商投资。早在富士康开始为苹果公司生产 iPhone 之前,香港的制造商就已经蹑手蹑脚地越过边境来到广东,寻找廉价劳动力。据萨拉-蒙克斯(Sarah Monks)所著的《玩具城》一书记载,1982 年,玩具制造商捷达在东莞附近的荔枝园里开设了一家喷漆厂。淋浴的水是用炒锅烧的;工厂就在一个铁皮屋里。蒙克斯女士报告说,在另一家公司,工人们决定米老鼠的鼻子应该是红色的,而不是黑色的。
2023/11/13 [栏目]  观点  [主题] 

How scary is China?
中国有多可怕?

When joe biden meets Xi Jinping in San Francisco next week, the stakes will be high. Fighting in the Middle East threatens to become another theatre for great-power rivalry, with America backing Israel, and China (along with Russia) deepening links to Iran. In the South China Sea, China is harassing Philippine ships and flying its planes dangerously close to American ones. Next year will test Sino-American relations even more. In January a candidate despised by Beijing may win Taiwan’s presidential election. For most of the year, the race for the White House will be a cacophony of China-bashing. W 亨乔·拜登下周在旧金山会见习近平,赌注会很高。中东的战斗有可能成为大国竞争的另一个战场,美国支持以色列,而中国(以及俄罗斯)加深了与伊朗的联系。在南中国海,中国正在骚扰菲律宾船只,并危险地将其飞机靠近美国船只。明年将进一步考验中美关系。今年1月,一位被北京鄙视的候选人可能会赢得台湾总统大选。在今年的大部分时间里,白宫的竞争将是抨击中国的嘈杂声。
2023/11/13 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #Economist #外媒 #双语 #军事

乌克兰、以色列,卷入两场战争的美国还有余力对抗中国吗
Ukraine. Israel. Can America Support Two Wars and Still Handle China?

America’s long-promised pivot to Asia was finally gathering momentum — new security deals with the Philippines and India, expanded military exercises, and plans with allies to stay ahead of Chinese technology. 美国承诺已久的转向亚洲战略终于增强势头,它与菲律宾和印度达成了新的安全协议,扩大了在亚太地区的军事演习,并计划与盟友一起在技术上保持对中国的领先。
2023/11/13 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #外媒 #双语 #Nytimes #军事

The commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces on how to win the war
乌克兰武装部队总司令谈如何赢得战争

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 provoked a global security crisis. The assault on democracy by a morally sick imperial power in the heart of Europe has tilted the balance of power in other parts of the world, including the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. The failure of multilateral bodies such as the un and Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe to maintain order means that Ukraine can only restore its territorial integrity by military force. R 2022 年 2 月,俄罗斯入侵乌克兰,引发了一场全球安全危机。欧洲心脏地带一个道德上有病的帝国主义对民主的攻击已经扭曲了世界其他地区的力量平衡,包括中东和亚太地区。联合国和欧洲安全与合作组织等多边机构未能维持秩序,这意味着乌克兰只能通过军事力量恢复其领土完整。
2023/11/02 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #Economist #外媒 #双语 #军事

Ukraine’s top general on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia
乌克兰最高将领谈击败俄罗斯所需的突破

Five months into its counter-offensive, Ukraine has managed to advance by just 17 kilometres. Russia fought for ten months around Bakhmut in the east “to take a town six by six kilometres”. Sharing his first comprehensive assessment of the campaign with The Economist in an interview this week, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, says the battlefield reminds him of the great conflict of a century ago. “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he says. The general concludes that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.” F 在反攻几个月后,乌克兰只前进了 17 公里。俄罗斯在东部的巴赫穆特周围战斗了十个月,“以占领一个六乘六公里的城镇”。乌克兰总司令瓦列里·扎卢日尼将军本周在接受《经济学人》采访时分享了他对这场战役的首次全面评估,他说战场让他想起了一个世纪前的大冲突。“就像在第一次世界大战中一样,我们已经达到了让我们陷入僵局的技术水平,”他说。这位将军得出的结论是,要打破僵局,需要巨大的技术飞跃。“很可能不会有深刻而美丽的突破。”
2023/11/02 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #Economist #双语 #外媒 #军事

Ties between foreign businesses and China go from bad to worse
外国企业与中国的关系每况愈下

The ranks of foreign businesspeople in Shanghai are much depleted these days. Those who remain closely monitor the comings and goings of multinational executives. So all eyes were on the Bund Summit, a globally minded economic and financial forum held in the city from September 22nd to 24th. In previous years the forum brought in a-list chief executives from around the world. The latest edition, the first since China lifted its draconian covid-19 restrictions and declared itself open for business, was expected to draw high-powered crowds once again. 如今,在上海的外国商人已寥寥无几。留下来的人密切关注着跨国公司高管们的一举一动。因此,所有的目光都投向了 9 月 22 日至 24 日在上海举行的外滩峰会--一个具有全球视野的经济和金融论坛。往年,该论坛都会吸引来自世界各地的一流首席执行官参加。新一届论坛是中国取消苛刻的 "19 条 "限制并宣布对企业开放后的首次论坛,预计将再次吸引大批高层人士参加。
2023/09/27 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #Economist #外媒 #双语 #外交 #经济

任正非:美国的先进文化还是要学习,从来没有说“打倒美国”

美国的先进文化我们还是要学习的,我们从来没有说“打倒美国”。华为也在做一些基础研究。基础研究离不开基础教育。基础教育是国家的责任,没有好的基础教育就培养不出顶尖人才。
2023/09/22 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #文化

China’s “demographic dividend” appears to be a myth
中国的 "人口红利 "似乎是个神话

If youth didn’t drive past growth, is ageing bound to be disastrous? 如果年轻没有推动过去的增长,那么老龄化就一定会带来灾难吗?
2023/09/22 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #Economist #外媒 #双语 #民生 #经济

美国的衰落与世界体系3.0版的黄昏
——兼论世界体系4.0版的全新可能

全球化进程经历了三波推动,可视为三个版本的世界体系:分别代表了生产贸易、政商机制和资本运营的全球化。冷战结束与中国的改革打破了原有社会制度限制藩篱,以美国为核心为代表的全球化秩序达到巅峰时期。然而,以民族国家为基本框架的世界各国行政制度及相应意识形态构成了对全球化进程的刚性制约,而美国正明显受此制约走向衰落。新版本的世界体系呼唤着民族国家体制的突破与变革,也将呈现出一些新的时代特征,而中国将是新版全球化的领导者。
2023/09/19 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #经济

How artificial intelligence can revolutionise science
人工智能如何彻底改变科学

Debate about artificial intelligence (ai) tends to focus on its potential dangers: algorithmic bias and discrimination, the mass destruction of jobs and even, some say, the extinction of humanity. As some observers fret about these dystopian scenarios, however, others are focusing on the potential rewards. ai could, they claim, help humanity solve some of its biggest and thorniest problems. And, they say, ai will do this in a very specific way: by radically accelerating the pace of scientific discovery, especially in areas such as medicine, climate science and green technology. Luminaries in the field such as Demis Hassabis and Yann LeCun believe that ai can turbocharge scientific progress and lead to a golden age of discovery. Could they be right? 关于人工智能 (ai) 的争论往往集中在其潜在的危险上:算法偏见和歧视、大规模就业岗位的破坏,甚至有人说,人类的灭绝。然而,当一些观察家对这些反乌托邦情景感到担忧时,其他人则关注潜在的回报。他们声称,人工智能可以帮助人类解决一些最大、最棘手的问题。他们表示,人工智能将以一种非常具体的方式做到这一点:从根本上加快科学发现的步伐,特别是在医学、气候科学和绿色技术等领域。 Demis Hassabis 和 Yann LeCun 等该领域的杰出人物相信人工智能可以推动科学进步并引领发现的黄金时代。他们可能是对的吗?
2023/09/15 [栏目]  观点  [主题]  #Economist #IT #外媒 #双语