• Travel and investment are shockingly depressed 旅游和投资的低迷令人震惊

image: ap 图片：ap

2023 年 9 月 26 日 | 上海

The ranks of foreign businesspeople in Shanghai are much depleted these days. Those who remain closely monitor the comings and goings of multinational executives. So all eyes were on the Bund Summit, a globally minded economic and financial forum held in the city from September 22nd to 24th. In previous years the forum brought in a-list chief executives from around the world. The latest edition, the first since China lifted its draconian covid-19 restrictions and declared itself open for business, was expected to draw high-powered crowds once again.
如今，在上海的外国商人已寥寥无几。留下来的人密切关注着跨国公司高管们的一举一动。因此，所有的目光都投向了 9 月 22 日至 24 日在上海举行的外滩峰会--一个具有全球视野的经济和金融论坛。往年，该论坛都会吸引来自世界各地的一流首席执行官参加。新一届论坛是中国取消苛刻的 "19 条 "限制并宣布对企业开放后的首次论坛，预计将再次吸引大批高层人士参加。

Not so. Nearly ten months in, President Xi Jinping’s grand reopening from his zero-covid fiasco has been a big disappointment. Foreign investors believed that 2022, when quarantines threw China into a deep freeze, would be the bottom for sour sentiment. Instead the Chinese economy is creaking and cross-border investment flows have weakened. Foreign businesses have been raided by the authorities. On September 25th the Financial Times reported that Charles Wang Zhonghe, the China chairman of investment banking at Nomura International, a Japanese bank, had been banned from leaving China. Many foreign investors are skipping trips and putting off investment plans.
并非如此。将近十个月过去了，习近平主席从 "零疫情 "惨败中重新开启的宏伟蓝图令人大失所望。外国投资者认为，2022 年，当隔离措施使中国陷入极度冰冻时，将是情绪低落的谷底。然而，中国经济却在吱吱作响，跨境投资流动减弱。外国企业遭到了当局的突击检查。9 月 25 日，英国《金融时报》报道称，日本野村国际银行投资银行部中国区主席王忠和（Charles Wang Zhonghe）被禁止离开中国。许多外国投资者放弃旅行，推迟投资计划。

Those that are showing up in Beijing and Shanghai this year say the damage wrought by zero-covid is palpable. Some of this, like the deteriorating English-language skills of hotel workers, is superficial. Other problems cut to the bone. Local staff have been deprived of foreign travel for years, and so from mingling with a previously steady stream of colleagues, engineers and scientists. China’s legions of well-trained white-collared workers appear less prepared to engage with the rest of the world than they did a few years ago, the visitors lament.
那些今年出现在北京和上海的人说，"零感冒 "造成的损害是显而易见的。其中一些问题，如酒店员工英语水平的下降，只是表面现象。其他问题则是切肤之痛。当地员工多年来一直被剥夺了出国旅行的机会，因此也无法与以往源源不断的同事、工程师和科学家打交道。访客们感叹道，与几年前相比，中国大批训练有素的白领员工似乎不太愿意与世界其他地方接触。

Communication between the government and foreign investors is even more stilted. Local officials are less willing to have open discussions with visiting investors. Most queries from foreigners receive boilerplate responses. That is particularly unhelpful at a time when dizzyingly complex new compliance rules for things like data transfers pose big legal risks for companies.
政府与外国投资者之间的沟通则更加僵化。当地官员不太愿意与来访的投资者进行公开讨论。外国人的大多数询问都会得到模板式的答复。在数据传输等新合规规则复杂得令人眼花缭乱、给企业带来巨大法律风险的时候，这种做法尤其无济于事。

Perhaps as a consequence, few foreigners bother coming. Inbound travel is still shockingly depressed. The number of passengers entering the country on international flights in the first half of the year was down by more than three-quarters compared with the same period in 2019. As late as July the figure was still only just over 50%. Western tourists have been almost entirely missing from China this year, depriving the country of useful interpersonal connections. Group travel from America was down by about 99% in the second quarter of the year, compared with 2019.
也许正因为如此，很少有外国人愿意来。入境游依然低迷得令人震惊。与 2019 年同期相比，今年上半年乘坐国际航班入境的旅客人数减少了四分之三以上。截至 7 月，这一数字仍略高于 50%。今年以来，西方游客几乎完全不在中国，使中国失去了有用的人际关系。与2019年相比，今年第二季度来自美国的团队旅游减少了约99%。

image: the economist 图片：经济学家

Business travel, which ground to an almost complete halt in 2022 as China issued few visas and required up to three weeks of quarantine, is far below Chinese expectations and increasing only at a snail’s pace. Harrington Zhang and colleagues at Nomura warn in a recent report (published before their colleague’s predicament came to light) that the “lack of business contacts and civilian exchanges between China and the outside world may have more profound implications for China’s economic growth potential in the years ahead”. Already foreign direct investment collapsed to $4.9bn in the second quarter, down by 94% from the same period in 2021. Just $4.4bn in foreign venture capital flowed into China in the first half of the year, down from about $55bn for all of 2021, according to PitchBook, a data provider (see chart).
2022 年，由于中国签发的签证很少，而且需要长达三周的隔离期，商务旅行几乎完全停滞，现在的商务旅行远远低于中国的预期，而且仅以蜗牛般的速度增长。Harrington Zhang 和野村（Nomura）的同事在最近的一份报告（在他们同事的困境曝光之前发布）中警告说，"中国与外部世界之间缺乏商业联系和民间交流，可能会对中国未来几年的经济增长潜力产生更深远的影响"。第二季度，外商直接投资已降至 49 亿美元，比 2021 年同期下降了 94%。数据提供商 PitchBook 的数据显示，今年上半年流入中国的外国风险投资仅为 44 亿美元，低于 2021 年全年的约 550 亿美元（见图）。

Those who stuck it out during the punitive zero-covid years are re-evaluting their commitment to China. According to a survey of American companies in the country by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, released on September 19th, just 68% were profitable last year. Only 52% think this year will be better. Roughly as many were optimistic about the next five years, a record low. Some 40% of companies say they are moving investments elsewhere or planning to do so.
那些在惩罚性零利率时期坚持下来的企业正在重新审视他们对中国的承诺。根据上海美国商会于 9 月 19 日发布的一项针对在华美国公司的调查，仅有 68% 的公司去年实现了盈利。只有 52% 的公司认为今年会更好。对未来五年持乐观态度的公司数量与去年持平，创历史新低。约 40% 的公司表示正在或计划将投资转移到其他地方。

The chamber noted that “2023 was supposed to be the year investor confidence and optimism bounced back”. But, it added grimly, that rebound has simply “not materialised”. Instead, business sentiment has “continued to deteriorate”. Merely flinging the door to the world open has not worked. Meanwhile, the window to meaningfully re-engage with the West is closing. ■
该商会指出，"2023 年本应是投资者信心和乐观情绪反弹的一年"。但该商会严峻地补充道，这种反弹 "根本没有实现"。相反，商业情绪 "继续恶化"。仅仅向世界敞开大门是行不通的。与此同时，与西方重新进行有意义接触的窗口正在关闭。■