So is China going the way of Japan? Chinese enterprises have accumulated even more debt, relative to the size of the country’s gdp, than Japan’s did in its bubble era. China’s house prices have begun to fall, damaging the balance-sheets of households and property firms. Credit growth has slowed sharply, despite cuts in interest rates. And flow-of-funds statistics show a narrowing in the financial deficit of China’s corporations in recent years. In Mr Koo’s judgment, China is already in a balance-sheet recession. Add to that a declining population and a hostile America and it is easy to be gloomy: will it go the way of Japan? It should be so lucky.
那么，中国会走日本的老路吗？与日本的泡沫经济时代相比，中国企业积累的债务相对于该国的国民生产总值而言甚至更多。中国的房价开始下跌，损害了家庭和房地产公司的资产负债表。尽管利率下调，信贷增长仍大幅放缓。而资金流动统计数据显示，近年来中国企业的财务赤字有所收窄。辜先生认为，中国已经陷入资产负债表衰退。再加上人口减少和美国的敌视，很容易让人产生悲观情绪：中国会走日本的老路吗？中国应该感到庆幸。
