As the nation’s property companies reel, weak disclosure standards and conflicting communications are angering global bond buyers — putting them off China long-term.
随着中国房地产公司的衰退，薄弱的信息披露标准和相互矛盾的沟通方式激怒了全球债券买家，使他们对中国失去了长期兴趣。

作者：周炜、刘明珠 2023年9月7日

For Dhiraj Bajaj, the sudden twists and turns were unlike any he'd ever seen in his two decade investing career.
对于 Dhiraj Bajaj 来说，这突如其来的波折是他二十年投资生涯中从未见过的。

First, Dalian Wanda Group Co. indicated to bondholders -- including Bajaj -- that everything was fine. The $400 million it owed them would be paid in full. Days later, some creditors were warned that the company was, in fact, $200 million short, a bombshell that triggered a frantic sell-off in the debt.
首先，大连万达集团股份有限公司向包括 Bajaj 在内的债券持有人表示一切正常。欠他们的 4 亿美元将全额支付。几天后，一些债权人接到警告，该公司实际上还差 2 亿美元，这一重磅消息引发了疯狂的债务抛售。

And then, just as quickly, lenders were informed that there was indeed enough cash, sending the bonds surging once more.
然后，贷款人很快就被告知确实有足够的现金，债券再次飙升。

A Wanda shopping mall in Shanghai.上海万达购物中心

Wanda would ultimately make the July debt payment. But Bajaj, who is Lombard Odier (Singapore) Ltd.’s head of Asian fixed income, says the incident and others like it have left him deeply wary of investing in China going forward.
万达最终将支付 7 月份的债务。但身为 Lombard Odier (Singapore) Ltd. 亚洲固定收益部门主管的 Bajaj 说，这次事件和其他类似事件让他对今后投资中国深感警惕。

This is becoming an increasingly common refrain in the financial community. As dozens of debt-saddled property companies, including industry giant Country Garden Holdings Co., struggle to stave off defaults, international money managers say that it’s the weak — and many argue worsening — governance and disclosure practices that are putting them off mainland borrowers longer-term. That could lead to diminished access to financing and higher borrowing costs for years to come, experts warn, further hamstringing China’s already sputtering economy.
这是金融界越来越普遍的说法。随着包括行业巨头碧桂园控股有限公司在内的数十家负债累累的房地产公司竭力避免违约，国际基金经理们表示，正是薄弱的--许多人认为是不断恶化的--治理和信息披露做法，让他们对内地借款人失去了长期的兴趣。专家警告说，这可能导致未来数年融资渠道减少和借贷成本上升，进一步阻碍本已萎靡不振的中国经济。

Wanda’s Bonds Whipsaw Ahead of Maturity 万达债券在到期前出现 "鞭打 "现象

Drip feed of information fueled wild price swings
源源不断的信息助长了价格的剧烈波动

“There is a clear deterioration in terms of standards, and this will no longer be tolerated by the global investment community,” Bajaj said. “We are becoming less tolerant of many Chinese high-yield companies due to the lack of disclosure standards and direct, straightforward communication.”
"巴加说："标准明显下降，全球投资界将不再容忍这种情况。"由于缺乏信息披露标准和直接、坦率的沟通，我们对许多中国高收益公司的容忍度越来越低。"

Representatives for Wanda and Country Garden didn’t respond to multiple requests seeking comment.
万达和碧桂园的代表没有回应多次置评请求。

Of course, China wasn’t exactly a shining example of good corporate governance to begin with. A number of companies have been plagued by hidden debt and accounting errors for years.
当然，中国本来就不是良好公司治理的光辉典范。多年来，一些公司一直受到隐性债务和会计差错的困扰。

But with the nation’s junk-rated dollar bonds returning an average of over 9% annually between 2012 and 2020 — versus less than 7% for comparable US debt — money managers were, by-and-large, more than fine to look the other way.
但是，由于美国的垃圾级美元债券在 2012 年至 2020 年期间的年均回报率超过 9%，而可比美债的回报率不到 7%，因此资金经理们基本上都会选择睁一只眼闭一只眼。

Those gains are a distant memory now. China’s offshore junk bonds, most of which were issued by builders, have lost more than $127 billion in value since peaking just two and a half years ago, around the time Beijing was introducing the so-called three red lines to slow borrowing by developers.
现在，这些收益已成为遥远的记忆。中国的离岸垃圾债券（大部分由建筑商发行）自两年半前达到顶峰以来，已经损失了超过 1,270 亿美元的价值，当时中国政府正在出台所谓的三条红线，以减缓开发商的借贷。

The policies were intended to help curb years of excessive debt-fueled expansion by builders and property speculation by homebuyers. But they wound up tipping a record number of firms into default as refinancing costs surged, and leading to a string of restructurings.
这些政策旨在帮助遏制建筑商多年来过度举债扩张和购房者的房地产投机行为。但由于再融资成本激增，这些政策最终导致创纪录数量的企业陷入违约，并引发了一系列重组。

Numerous global money managers said that while they were aware weak corporate governance was a risk factor when investing in China, standards, especially related to consistent communication with creditors, have been getting worse amid the mounting distress.
许多全球基金经理表示，虽然他们意识到薄弱的公司治理是在中国投资的一个风险因素，但随着中国的困境日益严重，公司治理的标准，尤其是与债权人保持一致沟通的标准，已经越来越差。

Country Garden, after missing the initial due date to make interest payments on two dollar bonds last month, then kept investors in the dark for weeks over whether it intended to pay the obligations before their grace periods expired (it ultimately paid the interest on Tuesday.) Further angering creditors was the fact that the company never clarified when the grace periods actually ended.
碧桂园在上个月错过了支付两笔美元债券利息的最初到期日后，在宽限期到期前是否打算支付债务的问题上，连续数周将投资者蒙在鼓里（该公司最终于周二支付了利息）。

Residential buildings at the Legend of Sea project, developed by Country Garden, in Ningbo, China, in August.Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
8 月，碧桂园在中国宁波开发的海上传奇项目的住宅楼：Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

Just last month, developer China Aoyuan Group Ltd. submitted a regulatory filing in which it announced that three-quarters of holders of existing notes supported its restructuring agreement. The language led some to believe that the company had passed a key threshold to get the deal approved. But the backing only applied to holders of one particular security, leading to grumblings that the developer wasn’t providing a clear picture of investor support for the plan.
就在上个月，开发商中国奥园集团有限公司提交了一份监管文件，宣布四分之三的现有票据持有人支持其重组协议。这一表述让一些人认为，该公司已经通过了交易获批的关键门槛。但这一支持只适用于一种特定证券的持有人，因此有人抱怨开发商没有清楚地说明投资者对该计划的支持情况。

Last year, state-backed real estate firm Greenland Holdings Corp. rocked the market with a surprise request to delay repayment on one of its dollar bonds for a year, only to then pay back separate notes due a few months later.
去年，国家支持的房地产公司绿地控股公司（Greenland Holdings Corp.

And in 2021 Fantasia Holdings Group Co. shocked investors by defaulting on a dollar bond just weeks after assuring creditors that it wasn’t having liquidity issues, and days after repaying a privately placed note.
2021 年，奇幻城娱乐控股集团有限公司在向债权人保证没有流动性问题几周后，在偿还了一笔私人配售的票据几天后，就出现了美元债券违约，令投资者大跌眼镜。

One investor who asked to not be identified speaking about a private matter reached out to Fantasia founder Zeng Jie via the messaging app WeChat after the company reneged on the debt asking about the non-payment. Zeng replied with a GIF of a cat on a litter box with the Chinese words “I’m pooping” superimposed over it.
在奇幻城娱乐背弃债务后，一位不愿透露姓名的投资者通过微信向奇幻城娱乐创始人曾杰询问欠款情况。曾杰回复了一个猫咪在猫砂盆上的 GIF 图，上面叠加了中文 "我在拉屎"。

Representatives from China Aoyuan, Greenland and Fantasia didn’t respond to requests for comment. Bloomberg also asked Fantasia representatives for a comment from Zeng, but none was provided. No contact details for Zeng were given, nor are they publicly available.
中国奥园、绿地和奇幻城娱乐的代表没有回应置评请求。彭博社还向奇幻城娱乐代表询问了曾庆红的评论，但没有得到任何回复。彭博社没有提供曾庆红的联系方式，也没有公开联系方式。

The Fantasia headquarters in Shenzhen.Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
奇幻城娱乐位于深圳的总部：沈其来/彭博社

“Tapping credit markets is never a one-off deal. Even after distress events emerge or defaults happen, a company should not just run to seed,” said Lawrence Lu, a senior director of corporate ratings at S&P Global Ratings. “It’s time for Chinese issuers to change the mindset if they eventually want to get back to the capital market.”
"利用信贷市场绝不是一锤子买卖。即使在困境事件出现或违约发生后，公司也不应该只是跑去播种，"标普全球评级公司企业评级高级总监劳伦斯-卢（Lawrence Lu）说。"如果中国发行人最终想重返资本市场，现在是时候改变心态了。"

‘Weak’ Governance 薄弱 "的治理

S&P evaluates corporations on the quality of their management and governance as part of its credit assessments. The rating company weighs governance factors including management culture, regulatory or legal infractions, consistency of communication and quality of financial reporting. Companies are assigned overall grades of strong, satisfactory, fair or weak.
作为信用评估的一部分，标准普尔对企业的管理和治理质量进行评估。该评级公司权衡的治理因素包括管理文化、监管或法律违规、沟通一致性和财务报告质量。公司的整体评级分为 "强"、"满意"、"一般 "或 "弱"。

Most mainland speculative-grade borrowers are scored as ‘weak,’ Lu said, amid a notable deterioration in performance in recent years that’s coincided with the property sector’s liquidity crunch.
Lu 表示，大多数内地投机级借款人的评级为 "弱"，而近年来随着房地产行业流动性紧缩，借款人的表现也明显恶化。

“Communication with different stakeholders should be more frequent, transparent and issuers should give even-handed treatment to all investors,” Lu said. “There is much to do compared to global standards.”
"与不同利益相关者的沟通应该更加频繁、透明，发行人应该公平对待所有投资者，"Lu 说。"与全球标准相比，我们还有很多工作要做。

That’s easier said than done, according to a former investors relations professional at a defaulted developer.
据一家违约开发商的前投资者关系专业人士称，这说起来容易做起来难。

Companies’ cash positions are often in flux as they seek to complete projects, and money set aside for interest payments sometimes gets used to fund operations amid liquidity strains, said the person, who asked not to be identified because they didn’t want to jeopardize their future career prospects. Some developers would rather keep a low profile than make commitments to creditors that they can’t keep, the person added.
这位不愿透露姓名的人士说，公司在努力完成项目的过程中，现金状况经常会发生变化，在流动性紧张的情况下，为支付利息而预留的资金有时会被用来为运营提供资金，因为他们不想危及自己未来的职业前景。该人士补充说，一些开发商宁愿保持低调，也不愿向债权人做出无法兑现的承诺。

‘We Can’t Invest’ 我们无法投资

Nana Li, head of Sustainability and Stewardship for Asia-Pacific at Impax Asset Management Group Plc and a former China Research Director at the Asian Corporate Governance Association, says global bond buyers are already reassessing China credit allocations.
Impax Asset Management Group Plc 亚太区可持续发展与管理负责人、亚洲公司治理协会前中国研究总监李娜娜说，全球债券买家已经在重新评估中国的信贷配置。

“Foreign money managers still have willingness to invest in China, but how much we invest is in flux,” Li said. “We’re facing a market that’s full of uncertainty, and combined with a lack of transparency, it’s harder to make forecasts. Without forecasts, we can’t invest.”
"外国基金经理仍然愿意在中国投资，但我们投资多少却在变化，"李说。"我们面对的是一个充满不确定性的市场，再加上缺乏透明度，因此更难做出预测。没有预测，我们就无法投资。

That could have significant repercussions for companies seeking financing, according to Tommy Wu, a senior economist at Commerzbank AG.
德国商业银行（Commerzbank AG）高级经济学家汤米-吴（Tommy Wu）认为，这可能会对寻求融资的公司产生重大影响。

“All companies would have to turn to onshore funding, further pressuring local banks and authorities, who are already busy clearing mounting debts issues,” Wu said. “It will also push up funding costs of Chinese companies and erode their profitability, dampening their willingness to expand business, or even leading to layoffs, all of which would further weigh on the Chinese economy.”
"所有公司都将不得不转向在岸融资，这将进一步给已经忙于清理不断增加的债务问题的地方银行和政府带来压力，"吴说。"这也将推高中国企业的融资成本，削弱其盈利能力，抑制其扩大业务的意愿，甚至导致裁员，所有这些都将进一步拖累中国经济。

The world’s second-largest economy hardly needs additional challenges. A private survey of China’s services sector showed activity expanded at the slowest rate this year in August, as the outlook darkened and the property turmoil held people back from spending.
世界第二大经济体几乎不需要额外的挑战。一项针对中国服务业的民间调查显示，由于前景暗淡和房地产动荡阻碍了人们的消费，8 月份中国服务业活动的增速为今年以来最慢。

Beijing is trying to revive confidence after the latest data showed home sales slumped for a third straight month, adding to deflation pressure. Late last week, China moved to allow its largest cities to cut down payments for homebuyers, and have also encouraged lenders to lower rates on existing mortgages.
最新数据显示，房屋销售连续第三个月下滑，加剧了通货紧缩的压力，中国政府正试图重振信心。上周末，中国开始允许其最大的城市降低购房者的首付比例，并鼓励贷款机构降低现有抵押贷款的利率。

Speculative bets that authorities may widen support further sent some ailing developers surging by the most on record Wednesday.
对政府可能进一步扩大支持力度的投机性押注，使一些陷入困境的开发商周三大幅飙升，创下历史最高纪录。

Read More: Why China Is Avoiding Using ‘Bazooka’ to Spur Economy: QuickTake
阅读更多中国为何避免使用 "火箭筒 "刺激经济？快评

Lombard Odier’s Bajaj says it falls on Chinese regulators to step up efforts to better ensure high corporate governance standards.
Lombard Odier 的 Bajaj 说，中国监管机构有责任加大力度，更好地确保高标准的公司治理。

This includes Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission as well as the People’s Bank of China, the National Development and Reform Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
其中包括香港证券及期货事务监察委员会，以及中国人民银行、国家发展和改革委员会和中国证券监督管理委员会。

A representative for the SFC said incidents such as selective disclosure by companies of market moving information could fall under its market abuse provisions and would be taken “very seriously” by the regulatory body.
证监会的一位代表说，公司选择性披露市场变动信息等事件可能属于证监会的市场滥用条款，监管机构将 "非常严肃地 "处理这些事件。

The PBOC, NDRC and CSRC didn’t respond to requests seeking comment.
中国人民银行、国家发改委和中国证监会没有回应置评请求。

“Something has to be done by regulators in China,” Bajaj said. “If not, I’m afraid that the global investor base is going to shrink for Chinese company bonds.”
"中国的监管机构必须有所作为，"巴加说。"如果不这样做，恐怕中国公司债券的全球投资者基础将会缩小。

That would be another hit to an economy already struggling to lure foreign investors. Just last week US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said American businesses consider China increasingly “ uninvestable,” even as Beijing has in recent months promised to treat international investors better.
这将对本已在努力吸引外国投资者的中国经济造成又一次打击。就在上周，美国商务部长吉娜-雷蒙多（Gina Raimondo）表示，美国企业认为中国越来越 "不可投资"，尽管中国政府近几个月来一直承诺会更好地对待国际投资者。

A damaged model at the deserted sales office for the Legend of Sea project developed by Country Garden.Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
碧桂园开发的 "海上传奇 "项目售楼处被损毁的模型：Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

For Willem Glorie, a portfolio manager at LGT Capital Partners who held Wanda bonds, it will take more than a charm offensive to win back his trust.
对于持有万达债券的 LGT Capital Partners 投资组合经理威廉-格洛里（Willem Glorie）来说，要重新赢得他的信任，需要的不仅仅是魅力攻势。

He says it wasn’t the conflicting messaging or wild price swings that he found most troubling about the July incident. The more frustrating part for him was how some investors were told of the company’s plans before others.
他说，在 7 月份的事件中，最让他感到不安的并不是相互矛盾的信息或剧烈的价格波动。更让他感到沮丧的是，一些投资者是如何先于其他投资者获知公司的计划的。

It’s “not disseminated in an open way to all investors at the same time,” said Glorie. “They’d mention to some investors one thing and the next day if there’s a development, they’d mention something else. It cannot be that investors have to chat with companies everyday to get what the latest issue is.”
格洛里说，"没有以公开的方式同时向所有投资者传播"。"他们会向一些投资者提及一件事，而第二天如果有新的进展，他们又会提及另一件事。不能让投资者每天都要和公司聊天，才能了解最新的问题。"