• China’s state banks are being enlisted to support economy
• 中国国有银行正在寻求支持经济
• Beijing has struggled to boost growth, investor confidence
• 北京一直在努力提振经济增长和投资者信心
  

Listings of apartments for sale in Shanghai.上海待售公寓列表。
Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg摄影师：沉其来/彭博社

By Bloomberg News 2023年8月29日

China’s largest banks are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages and deposits, the latest state-directed measures to shore up growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

中国最大的银行正准备降低现有抵押贷款和存款的利率，这是国家指导的最新措施，以支撑世界第二大经济体的增长。

An announcement that big state-owned lenders are reducing rates on the majority of the nation’s 38.6 trillion yuan ($5.3 trillion) of outstanding mortgages may come as soon as Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter. The reductions will only affect loans on first homes, two of the people said.

据知情人士透露，大型国有银行可能会在周二宣布降低全国 38.6 万亿元人民币（5.3 万亿美元）未偿还抵押贷款中大部分的利率。两位知情人士表示，此次削减只会影响首套住房的贷款。

Lenders such as Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp. are poised to cut deposit rates later this week for the third time in a year, people familiar said.

知情人士称，中国工商银行和中国建设银行等银行准备在本周晚些时候下调存款利率，这是一年内的第三次。

The moves are part of a targeted push by Beijing to spur consumer spending, drive more funds into the stock market and alleviate pressure on lenders’ profit margins.

这些举措是北京有针对性地刺激消费者支出、吸引更多资金进入股市并缓解银行利润率压力的一部分。

While Chinese shares gained in offshore trading after Bloomberg reported the banks’ plans, it’s unclear whether the moves will be enough to spark a sustained revival in investor confidence. Authorities have so far avoided broader stimulus measures despite a deepening property crisis and growing deflation pressures that have put the government’s economic growth target of around 5% at risk.

尽管在彭博社报道这些银行的计划后，中国股市在离岸交易中上涨，但尚不清楚这些举措是否足以激发投资者信心的持续复苏。尽管房地产危机不断加深，通货紧缩压力不断加大，政府5%左右的经济增长目标面临风险，但迄今为止，当局一直避免采取更广泛的刺激措施。

“This is an incremental policy step, not a game changer because people’s confidence is still low,” said Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Group Ltd. “I think we’re going to see property easing come through in the coming weeks, I just don’t know if it’s going to be strong enough.”

麦格理集团有限公司(Macquarie Group Ltd.)中国经济主管拉里·胡(Larry Hu)表示：“这是渐进的政策步骤，而不是游戏规则的改变者，因为人们的信心仍然很低。我认为我们将在未来几周内看到房地产宽松政策的实施。” ，我只是不知道它是否足够强大。”

The People’s Bank of China didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

中国人民银行没有立即回应置评请求。

The cuts to mortgage rates were highly anticipated by investors after the central bank hinted at support in mid-July. While China has reduced benchmark rates and pushed the average mortgage cost to a record low, most Chinese households didn’t benefit as banks won’t reprice existing loans until the beginning of next year.

在央行7月中旬暗示支持后，投资者对抵押贷款利率下调寄予厚望。尽管中国降低了基准利率，并将平均抵押贷款成本推至历史新低，但大多数中国家庭并未受益，因为银行要到明年初才会对现有贷款重新定价。

JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts estimated that the annualized rate on new mortgages stands at 4.18%, about 60 basis points lower than the outstanding borrowings. That has prompted some consumers to take out out short-term loans to repay mortgages early.

摩根大通分析师估计，新增抵押贷款的年化利率为4.18%，比未偿还贷款低约60个基点。这促使一些消费者申请短期贷款以提前偿还抵押贷款。

More than 90% of China’s outstanding mortgages were for first homes as of July 2021, according to the latest public data available from the banking regulator. In 2022, more than 80% of new home loans were on first homes, according to the housing ministry.

根据银行监管机构提供的最新公开数据，截至 2021 年 7 月，中国逾 90% 的未偿还抵押贷款用于首套住房。据住房和城乡建设部称，到 2022 年，超过 80% 的新增住房贷款用于购买首套住房。

Lower deposit rates may help lenders protect their margins as they extend lower rates to homebuyers. Big state banks may cut rates on local-currency deposits across key tenors by between 5 and 20 basis points, the people familiar said, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. Regulators have signed off on the plan, the people added. The cut may come as soon as Friday, one of the people said.

较低的存款利率可能有助于贷款机构保护其利润，因为他们向购房者提供较低的利率。知情人士称，大型国有银行可能会将关键期限的本币存款利率下调 5 至 20 个基点。因讨论私人问题而要求匿名。知情人士补充说，监管机构已批准该计划。一位知情人士表示，降息最早可能在周五进行。

China’s financial sector is already struggling with rising defaults at shadow banks, which have triggered a fresh wave of anxiety about hidden stress and the potential spillover to state-owned lenders. Analysts have also highlighted growing risks associated with debt-laden local government financing vehicles, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. saying the exposure of banks could weaken their capital positions and lead to lower dividend payouts.

中国的金融业已经在努力应对影子银行违约率上升的问题，这引发了新一波关于隐性压力和潜在溢出效应对国有银行的担忧。分析师还强调了与负债累累的地方政府融资工具相关的日益增长的风险，高盛集团表示，银行的风险敞口可能会削弱其资本状况，并导致股息支付减少。

Beijing has so far moved cautiously to revive the economy while at the same time safeguarding financial stability. China’s central bank kept a key interest rate that guides mortgages on hold and made a smaller-than-expected cut to another rate in August, which could help boost supply without squeezing banks’ margins too much.

迄今为止，北京在重振经济、同时维护金融稳定方面采取了谨慎的行动。中国央行维持了指导抵押贷款的关键利率不变，并在八月份以低于预期的幅度再次下调利率，这可能有助于增加供应，同时又不会过多挤压银行的利润率。

As of June, 100 out of 343 Chinese cities have lowered the rate floor of new-home mortgages or removed the minimum required, the PBOC said in its quarterly monetary policy report on Thursday. That has brought the nation’s average mortgage rate to 4.11% in June, down 0.51 percentage point from a year earlier.

中国人民银行在周四的季度货币政策报告中表示，截至 6 月，中国 343 个城市中有 100 个城市降低了新建住房抵押贷款利率下限或取消了最低要求。这使得6月份全国平均抵押贷款利率达到4.11%，同比下降0.51个百分点。

In an extreme scenario assuming the entire mortgage loan book is refinanced with a rate reduction of 60 basis points, earnings at Chinese bank for next year will be cut by 8%, with net interest margins narrowing by 7 basis points, according to JPMorgan. The US bank expects that about 50% of mortgage owners are likely to refinance and most of the impact on bank earnings will be in the near-term.

摩根大通表示，在极端情况下，假设整个抵押贷款账户进行再融资，利率降低 60 个基点，中国银行明年的盈利将减少 8%，净息差收窄 7 个基点。该美国银行预计，约50%的抵押贷款所有者可能会进行再融资，对银行盈利的大部分影响将在短期内发生。

The last time China allowed a similar move was during early 2009, when some state-owned banks gave a discount on interest rates to qualified borrowers in certain areas in response to the global financial crisis, according to a Zhongtai Securities report.

据中泰证券的一份报告称，中国上一次允许类似举措是在2009年初，当时一些国有银行为应对全球金融危机，向某些领域的合格借款人提供利率折扣。

Futures on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.8% in Hong Kong as of 7:13 p.m. local time, building on a two-day rally that’s been fueled by a slew of market-boosting measures from authorities. The contracts are still down about 17% from this year’s high in January.

截至晚上 7 点 13 分，香港恒生中国企业指数期货上涨 0.8%。当地时间，在当局采取的一系列市场提振措施的推动下，股市连续两天上涨。该合约仍较 1 月份的今年高点下跌约 17%。

— With assistance by Charlie Zhu, Zheng Li, Heng Xie, Jackie Cai, Lisa Du, Fran Wang, Jing Zhao, Emma Dong, and Lucille Liu