**The Oval Office blow up between Zelenskiy and Trump laid bare for many Europeans that something critical has broken in their relationship with Washington **
泽连斯基和特朗普在椭圆形办公室的争吵让许多欧洲人意识到，他们与华盛顿的关系出现了重大破裂

A Ukraine soldier with the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade at an outpost in the Zaporizhzhia region in February.

Photographer: Dmytro Smolienko/NurPhoto/Getty Images

2 月，一名乌克兰士兵随第 44 独立炮兵旅驻扎在扎波罗热地区的一处前哨。

摄影师：Dmytro Smolienko/NurPhoto/Getty Images

2025年3月1日 at GMT+8 23:18  2025年3月1日at GMT+8 23:18

European leaders are confronting their worst-case scenario: maybe they really are going to be dealing with a bellicose Russia alone.
欧洲领导人正面临着最糟糕的情况：也许他们真的要独自应对好战的俄罗斯。

When the US lined up alongside Russia and North Korea earlier this week to oppose a UN motion condemning Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, some European officials knew that the transatlantic relationship was in deep trouble. Then they watched in horror as Donald Trump gave Volodymyr Zelenskiy a public dressing down in the Oval Office and something broke.
本周早些时候，当美国与俄罗斯和朝鲜联手反对一项谴责弗拉基米尔·普京入侵乌克兰的联合国动议时，一些欧洲官员就知道跨大西洋关系陷入了困境。然后他们惊恐地看到唐纳德·特朗普在椭圆形办公室公开斥责弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基，事情就此破裂。

In interviews with Bloomberg, more than half a dozen officials who’ve maintained their composure through wars and financial crises reacted with visceral anger. For them, the scene showed the trust and values that have bound Europe and the US together since the end of World War II are no longer shared.
在接受彭博社采访时，超过六名在战争和金融危机中保持冷静的官员表现出发自内心的愤怒。对他们来说，这一幕表明，自二战结束以来将欧洲和美国联系在一起的信任和价值观已不复存在。

“President Trump and his administration raised a more fundamental challenge to the transatlantic alliance than it has faced in many decades,” said Graham Allison, a professor of government at Harvard University, who studied with Henry Kissinger and served in both the Clinton and Reagan administrations.
哈佛大学政府学教授格雷厄姆·艾利森 (Graham Allison) 表示：“特朗普总统及其政府对跨大西洋联盟提出了比几十年来更为根本的挑战。”艾利森曾是亨利·基辛格的导师，并在克林顿和里根政府任职。

Presidents Zelenskiy and Trump held a contentious meeting in the Oval Office on Friday.Photographer: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA/Bloomberg
周五，泽连斯基总统和特朗普总统在椭圆形办公室举行了一场充满争议的会谈。摄影师：Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA/Bloomberg

French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have all described this moment as a generational challenge for the continent. They’ll meet with Zelenskiy and other European leaders in London on Sunday to work out what their next move should be.
法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙、英国首相基尔·斯塔默和欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩都将这一时刻描述为欧洲大陆的世代挑战。他们将于周日在伦敦与泽连斯基和其他欧洲领导人会面，商讨下一步行动。

The European Union is aiming to follow up with an emergency package of €20 billion ($21 billion) in military aid for Ukraine at an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday. But that’s just a down payment on the hundreds of billions they will need to mobilize for defense in the coming months if they are to take over responsibility for their own security from the US for the first time in 80 years.
欧盟计划于周四在布鲁塞尔举行的紧急峰会上，向乌克兰提供 200 亿欧元（210 亿美元）的紧急军事援助。但如果欧盟想要在 80 年来首次从美国手中接过自身安全责任，那么这只是未来几个月他们为国防动员数千亿欧元的首期资金。

After years of hand-wringing and debates over the EU’s problems and weaknesses, doing that will require forging a political will that has little precedent in the history of the bloc.
经过多年对欧盟问题和弱点的忧虑和争论，要做到这一点需要形成欧盟历史上前所未有的政治意愿。

“While I would like to imagine that Europe will step up to fill the gap, and do so in time, I’d bet 3-1 against it,” Allison said, adding that he expects Ukraine will accept a bitter peace settlement by the end of the summer.
艾利森表示：“尽管我希望欧洲能够及时填补这一空白，但我打赌欧洲的可能性为 3 比 1。”他还表示，预计乌克兰将在今年夏季结束前接受一项痛苦的和平协议。

The transatlantic relationship, and the US’s broader network of alliances, was arguably unique in the post-war world because common values and trust allowed nations to share secrets and rely on each other at critical moments. The foundations of that relationship were laid down during World War II and deepened when eastern European nations were welcomed into NATO and the EU after the fall of the iron curtain.
跨大西洋关系以及美国更广泛的联盟网络可以说是战后世界独一无二的，因为共同的价值观和信任使各国能够在关键时刻分享秘密并相互依赖。这种关系的基础是在第二次世界大战期间奠定的，并在铁幕落下后东欧国家受到北约和欧盟欢迎时得到深化。

It’s that history that makes the current crisis so painful.
正是这段历史让当前的危机如此痛苦。

Many European diplomats grew up during the Cold War — some spent their childhoods in the Soviet bloc or under occupation. When they read of the atrocities perpetrated on Ukraine — the massacres in places like Bucha, thousands of children deported to Russia, the aerial attacks on civilians — they see echoes of their own families’ stories.
许多欧洲外交官在冷战期间长大——有些人的童年是在苏联集团或被占领区度过的。当他们读到乌克兰发生的暴行——在布查等地发生的大屠杀、数千名儿童被驱逐到俄罗斯、对平民的空袭——他们看到了自己家人的故事的回响。

Priests pray over a mass grave following the 2022 massacre in Bucha.Photographer: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP/Getty Images
2022 年布查大屠杀发生后，牧师们在万人坑前祈祷。摄影师：Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP/Getty Images

For all the cynicism in parts of the West and the Global South, the US really was a symbol of freedom for eastern Europeans and they aspired to the principles running through American politics.
尽管西方部分地区和全球南方国家对此持怀疑态度，但对东欧人来说，美国确实是自由的象征，他们向往美国政治的原则。

To be sure, the US has at times persuaded allies to do things they didn’t want to do. But Trump’s Republicans are the party of Ronald Reagan, the president who told the Soviet Union to “tear down” the Berlin Wall in the name of freedom. Now they are lining up with the Russian aggressors’ attempts to deprive the Ukrainians of their lives and liberty.
诚然，美国有时会说服盟友做他们不想做的事情。但特朗普的共和党是罗纳德·里根的政党，里根总统曾以自由的名义要求苏联“推倒”柏林墙。现在他们正与俄罗斯侵略者站在一起，试图剥夺乌克兰人的生命和自由。

What Bloomberg Economics Says…

彭博经济评论称……

“For the world, the Trump-Zelenskiy spat is another reminder of the mercurial US foreign policy that could turn from building a coalition around supporting a country ‘as long as it takes’ to rushing it into the settlement it had limited part in shaping.”
“对全世界来说，特朗普与泽连斯基的争吵再次提醒我们，美国的外交政策反复无常，可能会从建立一个‘只要需要’就支持一个国家的联盟，转变为仓促达成其在协议制定中只发挥了有限作用的解决方案。”

—Alex Isakov, Russia and CEE economist. For full research, click here
— Alex Isakov ，俄罗斯和中东欧经济学家。如需详细研究，请点击此处

After Friday’s quarrel in the Oval Office, EU leaders lined up to voice their support for Zelenskiy and make clear whose side they were on. Trump is putting the Europeans into a position where they have to choose between the US and Ukraine, several officials said, and most, if not all, will pick Ukraine. For Europe, it is existential.
周五白宫内部争吵过后，欧盟领导人纷纷表示支持泽连斯基，并明确表明自己站在哪一边。多位官员表示，特朗普让欧洲人不得不在美国和乌克兰之间做出选择，而大多数（如果不是全部）欧洲人都会选择乌克兰。对欧洲来说，这是关乎生死存亡的问题。

“A new era of barbarity has begun,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Saturday in a statement to reporters in Berlin. “An era of barbarity in which the rules-based international order and the rule of law must defend themselves more than ever before against the power of the mighty.”
德国外交部长安娜莱娜·贝尔博克周六在柏林对记者发表的声明中说：“一个新的野蛮时代已经开始。在这个野蛮时代，基于规则的国际秩序和法治必须比以往任何时候都更加努力地抵御强权的威胁。”

Going it alone would pose an unprecedented challenge to European nations, but it will also likely be damaging to US prosperity and security too.
单独行动将对欧洲国家构成前所未有的挑战，但也可能损害美国的繁荣和安全。

The trading relationship between the US and the EU is the most important in the world, reaching €1.6 trillion in 2023, according to the European Commission, while EU and US firms have €5.3 trillion worth of investment in each other’s markets. The European Commission is already preparing lists of goods to target if Trump follows through with his threat to impose tariffs on EU exports.
美国和欧盟之间的贸易关系是世界上最重要的，欧盟委员会表示，到 2023 年，贸易额将达到 1.6 万亿欧元，而欧盟和美国企业在彼此市场上的投资额高达 5.3 万亿欧元。如果特朗普真的威胁对欧盟出口产品征收关税，欧盟委员会已经在准备针对的商品清单。

Government Support to Ukraine 政府对乌克兰的支持

Beyond that, the alliance between Europe and the US — and by extension much of America’s global power — lasted so long because it was based on trust and the fact allies chose to buy into it. Allies were in a pact that was essentially voluntary and Trump has broken the trust that underpinned it.
此外，欧洲与美国之间的联盟——以及美国的大部分全球实力——之所以能持续这么久，是因为它建立在信任的基础上，而且盟友们也选择接受它。盟友们的协议本质上是自愿的，而特朗普破坏了支撑它的信任。

Now the EU is working to strengthen ties with like-minded nations such as Canada that have also been targeted by Trump and will seek new trade relations with countries in Asia and Latin America. The bloc could also be less willing to work with the US on China and elsewhere in the far east. Many of America’s other allies will be wondering if they could be next.
如今，欧盟正努力加强与加拿大等志同道合国家的联系。加拿大也是特朗普的目标，欧盟将寻求与亚洲和拉丁美洲国家建立新的贸易关系。欧盟可能也不太愿意与美国在中国和其他远东地区合作。美国的许多其他盟友将担心自己会不会成为下一个目标。

The crisis with the US has also drawn the UK closer to the EU again, after years of bitterness over Brexit. On Tuesday, the British prime minister said the shifting geopolitical landscape means a “new alliance” between the UK and Europe will be necessary.
经过多年的脱欧苦涩，与美国的危机也让英国再次与欧盟走得更近。周二，英国首相表示，不断变化的地缘政治格局意味着英国和欧洲之间有必要建立“新联盟”。

A resident walks past damaged buildings following a Russian strike in Zaporizhzhia in January.Photographer: Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty Images
扎波罗热州一名居民走过 1 月份俄罗斯袭击后受损的建筑物。摄影师：Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty Images

Starmer has been in close contact with other European leaders to coordinate their approach on Trump and Ukraine, as well as strengthening the continent’s broader security architecture.
斯塔默一直与其他欧洲领导人保持密切联系，以协调他们对特朗普和乌克兰问题的态度，并加强欧洲大陆更广泛的安全架构。

To do that, EU nations should be increasing defense budgets to at least 3% of GDP as soon as next year, a senior European government official told Bloomberg. In extreme scenarios that may have to go as high as 7%, they added.
一位欧洲高级政府官员告诉彭博社，为了实现这一目标，欧盟国家应在明年将国防预算提高到至少占 GDP 的 3%。他们补充说，在极端情况下，这一比例可能高达 7%。

In the short term, there are holes in Europe’s capabilities that are plugged by the US. And even if they can muster the funds and the manufacturing capacity to supply Ukraine, US capacity in areas such as intelligence, space and battlefield communications would be difficult if not impossible to replicate if Trump shuts down all support.
短期内，欧洲的能力存在漏洞，而美国可以填补这些漏洞。即使欧洲能够筹集资金和制造能力来供应乌克兰，如果特朗普停止所有支持，美国在情报、太空和战场通信等领域的能力将很难甚至不可能复制。

That’s why some leaders like Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni have been calling for a summit with the US to try to salvage the relationship and experts have been arguing that European officials should do everything they can over the next four years to work with like-minded counterparts to keep the transatlantic alliance alive.
这就是为什么意大利总理乔治亚·梅洛尼等一些领导人一直呼吁与美国举行峰会，试图挽救两国关系，专家们也一直主张欧洲官员应该在未来四年尽一切努力与志同道合的同行合作，维护跨大西洋联盟。

But while it will continue to engage with Trump, Europe’s focus is shifting to what it can do without the US.
不过，尽管欧洲将继续与特朗普接触，但它的重点正在转向在没有美国的情况下该怎么办。