DAVID PIERSON, OLIVIA WANG
2024年4月15日
周四，拜登总统在白宫与菲律宾总统费迪南德·马科斯和日本首相岸田文雄合影。 YURI GRIPAS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
President Biden’s effort to build American security alliances in China’s backyard is likely to reinforce the Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s view that Washington is leading an all-out campaign of “containment, encirclement and suppression” of his country. And there is not much Mr. Xi can do about it.
拜登总统在中国周边建立美国安全联盟的努力很可能会强化中国领导人习近平的观点，即华盛顿正在领导一场对中国进行“遏制、包围和打压”的全面运动。而习近平对此无能为力。
To China, Mr. Biden’s campaign looks nothing short of a reprise of the Cold War, when the world was split into opposing blocs. In this view, Beijing is being hemmed in by U.S. allies and partners, in a cordon stretching over the seas on China’s eastern coast from Japan to the Philippines, along its disputed Himalayan border with India, and even across the vast Pacific Ocean to a string of tiny, but strategic, island nations.
对中国而言，拜登的行动无异于冷战的翻版，当时世界被分割成对立阵营。在这种观点看来，北京受困于美国的盟友和伙伴——一个从日本到菲律宾沿着中国东海岸延伸，沿着中国与印度有争议的喜马拉雅边界，甚至穿过浩瀚的太平洋，一直延伸到一连串面积虽小但具有战略意义的岛国所形成的包围圈中。
That pressure on China expanded Thursday when Mr. Biden hosted the leaders of Japan and the Philippines at the White House, marking the first-ever trilateral summit between the countries. American officials said the meeting was aimed at projecting a united front against China’s increasingly aggressive behavior against the Philippines in the South China Sea and against Japan in the East China Sea. Mr. Biden described America’s commitment to defense agreements with Japan and the Philippines as “ironclad.”
周四，拜登在白宫会见了日本和菲律宾领导人，这是三国举行的首次峰会，标志着对中国的进一步施压。美国官员表示，这次会晤旨在建立统一战线，反对中国在南海对菲律宾、在东海对日本日益咄咄逼人的行为。拜登表示，美国与日本和菲律宾的防御承诺“坚定如铁”。
The summit ended with agreements to hold more naval and coast guard joint exercises, and pledges of new infrastructure investment and technology cooperation. It builds on a groundbreaking defense pact made at Camp David last August between Mr. Biden and the leaders of Japan and South Korea, as well as on plans unveiled last year to work with Australia and Britain to develop and deploy nuclear-powered attack submarines.
峰会结束时，三国同意加强海军和海岸警卫队联合演习，并承诺进行新的基础设施投资和技术合作。此次峰会的基础是拜登与日韩领导人去年8月在戴维营达成的开创性防务协议，以及去年公布的与澳大利亚和英国合作开发、部署核动力攻击潜艇的计划。
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Mr. Biden has also sought to draw India, China’s chief rival for influence with poorer countries, closer to Washington’s orbit through a security grouping called the Quad. And a high-profile visit to Washington by the Indian leader last year has intensified Chinese suspicions about India.
拜登还试图通过一个名为“四方安全对话”的机制将印度拉近华盛顿的轨道，印度是中国在对欠发达国家施加影响力方面的主要竞争对手。印度领导人去年对华盛顿的高调访问加剧了中国对印度的疑虑。
“China is clearly alarmed by these developments,” said Jingdong Yuan, director of the China and Asia Security Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. “Chinese interpretations would be that the U.S. and its allies have clearly decided that China needs to be contained.”
“中国显然对这些事态发展感到震惊，“斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所中国与亚洲安全项目主任袁劲东说。“在中方看来，美国及其盟国已经明确决定需要遏制中国。”
周四，中国高层领导人赵乐际抵达朝鲜平壤。 CHA SONG HO/ASSOCIATED PRESS
In response, China has been bolstering its own ties with partners like Russia and North Korea. As recently as Tuesday, the Chinese and Russian foreign ministers, meeting in Beijing, warned the United States not to replicate the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Asia. Zhao Leji, a senior Chinese leader, traveled to Pyongyang this week and pledged to “strengthen strategic coordination” between the countries.
作为回应，中国一直在加强自己与俄罗斯和朝鲜等伙伴的关系。上周二，中国和俄罗斯外长在北京举行会晤，警告美国不要在亚洲复制北大西洋公约组织。中国的高层领导人赵乐际前往平壤，承诺“加强”两国之间的“战略协调”。
The United States and its allies are “stoking confrontation in the name of cooperation, flexing muscles in the name of peace, and sowing chaos in the name of order,” the Global Times, a Communist Party newspaper, wrote in an editorial this week. On Friday, China’s coast guard patrolled the waters near the disputed islands in the East China Sea known in China as Diaoyu and in Japan as Senkaku.
美国及其盟友“以合作之名煽动对抗，以和平之名炫耀武力，以秩序之名制造混乱”，共产党报纸《环球时报》在一篇社论中写道。周五，中国海警在东海争议岛屿附近海域巡逻，这些岛屿在中国被称为钓鱼岛，在日本被称为尖阁诸岛。
But aside from pointed words and the perfunctory maritime patrol, Beijing’s options to push back against U.S. pressure appear limited, analysts said, especially as China contends with slowing economic growth and mounting trade frictions.
但分析人士表示，除了严辞谴责和走过场的海上巡逻，北京方面反击美国压力的选择似乎有限，尤其是在中国面临经济增长放缓和贸易摩擦加剧的情况下。
Its military, while rapidly modernizing, is untested and would be taking an immense risk by confronting a U.S.-led alliance. Beijing’s resolve is currently being challenged in the South China Sea, amid a standoff with Manila over disputed waters.
北京的军队虽然正在迅速现代化，但没有经历过实战，与美国领导的联盟对抗将冒巨大风险。北京的决心目前正在南海受到挑战，它与马尼拉在有争议的水域问题上僵持不下。
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Tensions with the Philippines have been running high since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., came into power in 2022 and adopted a more muscular foreign policy, which included resisting China’s vast claims to waters near its shores. Chinese boats have rammed and pointed lasers at Philippine ships, and last month a Chinese coast guard vessel injured three Philippine soldiers with a water cannon.
2022年，费迪南德·马科斯总统上台，并采取更强硬的外交政策（包括抵制中国对其临近海域的大量主权主张），自那以来，中菲关系一直处于高度紧张状态。中国船只会对菲律宾船只进行撞击，并用激光瞄准菲律宾船只，上个月，一艘中国海警船用水炮击伤了三名菲律宾士兵。
China has depicted the Philippines as another pawn of the United States and Japan, and sought to portray itself as a victim of U.S. aggression.
中国将菲律宾描绘成美国和日本的又一个棋子，并试图将自己描绘成美国好斗情绪的受害者。
上个月，第二托马斯沙洲（中国称之为仁爱礁）附近海域，中国海警船对一艘菲律宾海军船只发射水炮。 ADRIAN PORTUGAL/REUTERS
Analysts say that dismissive approach, coupled with China’s buildup of artificial islands in the South China Sea replete with military installations and airstrips, has changed the calculus of the Philippines and motivated it to embrace the United States.
分析人士表示，这种毫无顾忌的做法，再加上它在南海修建布满军事设施和飞机跑道的人工岛屿，已经导致菲律宾改变考量，促使其拥抱美国。
China “should know better, as its own activities asserting very aggressively its territorial claims in the South China Sea would push the Philippines toward strengthening ties with the U.S.,” Mr. Yuan said.
中国“要心里有数，因为它自己在南海积极进行领土主张的活动将推动菲律宾加强与美国的关系”，袁劲东说。
Similarly, the Camp David summit last year underscored the depths of Tokyo’s and Seoul’s unease about China’s growing assertiveness, prompting the two Asian neighbors to set aside decades of lingering tension over colonial occupation and World War II.
同样，去年的戴维营峰会凸显了东京和首尔对中国日益强硬姿态的不安，促使这两个亚洲邻国搁置了数十年来因殖民占领和“二战”而持续的紧张关系。
Whether Mr. Biden’s strategy succeeds in deterring China in the long run remains to be seen. Nationalists in China view American alliances as fragile and subject to the whims of each U.S. presidential election. Then there’s Mr. Xi, who perceives the West to be in structural decline, and China’s ascendance as Asia’s dominant power to be inevitable.
从长远来看，拜登的战略能否成功遏制中国还有待观察。 在中国的民族主义者看来，美国的联盟是脆弱的，并且随着每次美国总统选举的变化而改变。然后是习近平，他认为西方正处于结构性衰退，而中国作为亚洲主导力量的崛起是不可避免的。
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“The Americans should not think so highly of themselves. They could not solve Afghanistan or Ukraine,” said Zheng Yongnian, an influential political scientist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s campus in Shenzhen. He said that China still hoped to resolve its disputes peacefully. “The reason we are not touching the Philippines is not that we are afraid of the United States.”
“美国人不应该把自己看得那么高。他们无法解决阿富汗或乌克兰问题，”香港中文大学深圳校区颇具影响力的政治学家郑永年表示。他说，中国仍然希望和平解决争端。“我们不碰菲律宾的原因并不是因为我们害怕美国。”
China has also launched a diplomatic blitz targeting nonaligned powers such as Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and South Africa. And tiny island nations in the Pacific, which hold great strategic value in the contest for naval supremacy, have also been beneficiaries of China’s charm offensive.
中国还针对印度尼西亚、沙特阿拉伯和南非等不结盟国家发起了外交攻势。而在海上霸权争夺中具有重大战略价值的太平洋小岛国也受益于中国的魅力攻势。
周日，中国烟台，密克罗尼西亚联邦总统韦斯利·西米纳（中）在一场宴会上。 TANG KE/FEATURE CHINA/FUTURE PUBLISHING, VIA GETTY IMAGES
On Tuesday, Mr. Xi hosted President Wesley Simina of the Federated States of Micronesia, an archipelago nation of over 100,000 people that has long been part of the U.S. sphere of influence. Mr. Simina was treated to an honor guard and a red carpet en route to a meeting in the Great Hall of the People, where Mr. Xi promised more Chinese largess.
上周二，习近平会见了到访的密克罗尼西亚联邦总统韦斯利·西米纳。密克罗尼西亚联邦是一个人口超过10万的群岛国家，长期以来一直是美国势力范围的一部分。在人民大会堂举行会晤之前，西米纳受到了仪仗队和红毯礼遇，习近平在会面中承诺将提供更多援助。
“China is ready to continue to provide support to the development of island countries to the best of its ability,” Mr. Xi said.
“中方愿继续为岛国发展提供力所能及的支持，”习近平表示。
Days earlier, Beijing took the highly unusual step of welcoming Indonesia’s president-elect, Prabowo Subianto, and giving him a meeting with Mr. Xi. Such an honor is usually reserved for a leader after inauguration, and could reflect regret for not courting Mr. Marcos more aggressively after he took power.
就在几天前，北京采取了极不寻常的举措，欢迎了印度尼西亚当选总统普拉博沃·苏比延多的到来，并安排他与习近平会面。这样的礼遇通常只针对就任后的领导人，可能反映出了当局对马科斯上台后没有更积极拉拢他的遗憾。
Still, Beijing’s room to maneuver against Washington is limited by its struggling economy, which has been hit by a property crisis and a cratering of foreign investment. China has been increasing exports, but that has already caused friction with countries concerned about a flood of cheap Chinese goods.
然而，在中国经济受到房地产危机和外国投资锐减的打击下，北京抗衡华盛顿的腾挪空间仍然受制于陷入困境的经济。中国一直在增加出口，但这已经引发了与一些国家的摩擦，它们对中国廉价商品大量涌入感到担忧。
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The broader American pressure campaign may also be nudging China to avoid escalating tensions further. Despite its differences with the United States, China is engaging in talks between the countries’ leaders and senior officials. Relations with some neighbors, such as Australia, are slowly thawing. Analysts have noted that Beijing has also avoided escalating its military presence around Taiwan in recent months, despite the island’s election of a leader the Communist Party loathes.
美国更广泛的施压行动也可能促使中国采取措施，避免紧张局势进一步升级。尽管与美国存在分歧，中国仍在进行两国领导人和高级官员之间的对话，与澳大利亚等一些邻国的关系也正在慢慢解冻。分析人士指出，近几个月来，尽管台湾选出了中共厌恶的领导人，北京也避免升级在台湾周边的军事存在。
“They are definitely being more cautious and demonstrating a willingness to engage,” Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said of Beijing. “They are realizing there are actual risks to letting frictions escalate. We just haven’t seen any substantive compromises yet.”
“他们肯定更加谨慎，并表现出接触的意愿，”新加坡国立大学政治学助理教授庄嘉颖谈到北京时表示。“他们意识到让摩擦升级存在实际的风险。我们只是还没有看到任何实质性的妥协。”
