Some major milestones are becoming frustratingly unattainable for many families, helping to create economic pessimism that hangs over the election.
对于许多家庭来说，一些重大里程碑变得令人沮丧地难以实现，从而助长了笼罩选举的经济悲观情绪。
By Shawn Donnan and Claire Ballentine
作者：肖恩·唐南和克莱尔·巴伦汀
2024年10月17日 GMT+8 18:00
Illustration: Carolina Moscoso
插图：卡罗莱纳·莫斯科索
As US Election Day approaches, inflation is largely tamed and wage gains have lifted incomes. Yet the economy remains the most pressing issue in the presidential race for one big reason: Increasingly, for many Americans, the long-standing building blocks of middle-class life feel frustratingly unattainable.
随着美国选举日的临近，通货膨胀基本得到抑制，工资上涨提高了收入。然而，经济仍然是总统竞选中最紧迫的问题，有一个重要原因：对于许多美国人来说，中产阶级生活的长期基石越来越令人沮丧地感到遥不可及。
The standard 20% down payment on a median-priced home now costs 83% of a year’s income for the typical family ready to buy a home, up from 65% on the eve of the 2016 election, according to Bloomberg calculations. Buying a new car takes almost two extra weeks of work for the median household compared to eight years ago. Child care then cost the same family about a quarter of its weekly income. Now it swallows up more than a third.
根据彭博社的计算，对于准备买房的典型家庭来说，中等价格房屋的标准 20% 首付现在占其年收入的 83%，高于 2016 年大选前夕的 65%。与八年前相比，中位数家庭购买一辆新车需要多花近两周的时间。然后，同一家庭的儿童保育费用约为其每周收入的四分之一。现在它吞掉了三分之一以上。
And while the cost of attending college has gone down as a share of income in recent years, a median household can expect to pay 75% of its annual income for a private college and more than third for a public in-state university. That is up significantly from when many of today’s parents went to college themselves — and, in turn, can make the price tag look unnerving.1
尽管近年来上大学的费用占收入的比例有所下降，但中位数家庭预计将其年收入的 75% 花在私立大学上，而将三分之一以上的钱花在公立州内大学上。与当今许多父母自己上大学时相比，这个数字显着上升 - 反过来，这可能会让价格标签看起来令人不安。 1
That represents a repricing of the American Dream, in which some of a family’s biggest expenditures — the ones that are foundations of long-term economic security and also the coveted rewards of hard work and striving — are often overwhelming.
这代表着对“美国梦”的重新定价，其中一些家庭最大的支出——这些支出是长期经济安全的基础，也是辛勤工作和奋斗带来的令人垂涎的回报——往往是压倒性的。
Some of this is the legacy of a now-unwinding period of tight monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve’s campaign of rate hikes making mortgage and auto loan payments more daunting. But many of the forces bearing down on consumers have been gathering strength for much longer than that. College and child-care costs have been escalating for a generation, while eye-watering housing prices reflect a supply shortage more than a decade in the making.
其中部分原因是紧缩货币政策正在放松，美联储的加息行动使抵押贷款和汽车贷款的支付变得更加艰巨。但许多影响消费者的力量积聚力量的时间比这要长得多。一代人以来，大学和儿童保育费用一直在上涨，而令人眼花缭乱的房价反映出十多年来一直存在的供应短缺。
Consumers are navigating those challenges at the same time as pandemic-era savings have faded and as a US labor market that recently seemed to have a job available for anybody has slowed.
消费者正在应对这些挑战，与此同时，大流行时代的储蓄已经减少，而且最近似乎人人都有工作的美国劳动力市场也放缓了。
It’s not universally bleak for consumers: Wage growth came alongside the pandemic labor shock, and the run-up in housing prices has been a wealth-building event for those who already own a home.
对于消费者来说，情况并非普遍黯淡：工资增长伴随着大流行的劳动力冲击，而房价的上涨对于那些已经拥有房屋的人来说是一个财富积累的事件。
Economy Is Top Issue in Swing States 经济是摇摆州的首要问题
Q: What is the single most important issue to you when deciding how to vote in the November 2024 election for US president?
问：在决定如何投票 2024 年 11 月美国总统选举时，对您来说最重要的问题是什么？
Still, voters have expressed a deep pessimism about the US economy in an election where they consistently name that issue as their top priority. And whether it’s Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump who wins in November, that economic discontent is likely to hang around.
尽管如此，选民在选举中仍对美国经济表达了深深的悲观情绪，他们始终将这一问题作为首要任务。无论是民主党人卡马拉·哈里斯还是共和党人唐纳德·特朗普在 11 月获胜，这种经济不满情绪都可能会持续存在。
That’s because the conditions appear to be creating a more lasting economic fault line in US politics, one that separates those who can afford a home or education from those who can’t.
这是因为，这些情况似乎正在美国政治中形成一条更持久的经济断层线，这条断层线将那些能负担得起住房或教育费用的人和那些负担不起住房或教育费用的人分开。
Source: National Association of RealtorsIllustration: Carolina Moscoso
资料来源：全国房地产经纪人协会插图：Carolina Moscoso
“If people feel that they’re not able to achieve the American Dream, that’s going to shape who they support and what they support,” says Alexander Adames, a sociologist at Princeton University who studies the rising cost of joining the middle class and its effects.
普林斯顿大学社会学家亚历山大·亚当斯 (Alexander Adames)表示：“如果人们觉得自己无法实现美国梦，这就会影响他们支持谁以及支持什么。”他研究了加入中产阶级的成本上升及其影响。影响。
The numbers are starkest when it comes to housing. The share of income needed to buy a home has soared as higher mortgage rates have collided with a supply shortage.
住房方面的数字最为明显。由于抵押贷款利率上升与供应短缺相冲突，买房所需的收入比例飙升。
Eight years ago, it would have taken almost 14 years to save up for a 20% down payment on an median-priced home. Now, it would take 19 years.
八年前，要攒够 20% 的首付才能买一套中等价位的房子，需要花费近 14 年的时间。现在，这需要19年。
The monthly mortgage payment on the median-priced house, meanwhile, has almost doubled from 14% of median income in 2016 to 26% this year.
与此同时，中价房屋的每月抵押贷款支付额几乎翻了一番，从 2016 年占收入中位数的 14% 增至今年的 26%。
That’s not just about high interest rates. The US has seen one of the most remarkable periods of home price appreciation in its history in recent years, says Zillow senior economist Orphe Divounguy. That’s increased the wealth of those who already owned a home and want to stay put. “It also makes it very, very difficult for most households, for most families, to go out and buy a home.”
这不仅仅是高利率的问题。 Zillow 高级经济学家Orphe Divounguy表示，近年来，美国经历了历史上最显着的房价升值时期之一。这增加了那些已经拥有房屋并想留在原地的人的财富。 “这也使得大多数家庭出去买房变得非常非常困难。”
Stuart Paul, an economist with Bloomberg Economics, says making down payments is “a tightening bottleneck on housing activity. And we think high prices and down payments are among the primary sources of consumers’ profoundly negative assessment of home-buying conditions — perhaps more so than rates.”
彭博经济研究公司(Bloomberg Economics)经济学家斯图尔特·保罗(Stuart Paul)表示，首付是“住房活动的一个日益紧张的瓶颈”。我们认为，高房价和首付是消费者对购房条件产生严重负面评价的主要原因之一——或许比利率更重要。”
The state of the housing market is vexing Air Force veteran Jerry Sink and his wife as they contemplate buying a new home in Long Beach, California, after marrying last year.
空军退伍军人杰里·辛克(Jerry Sink)和他的妻子去年结婚后，正在考虑在加利福尼亚州长滩购买一套新房，房地产市场的状况让他们很烦恼。
Jerry Sink.Photographer: Jessica Pons/Bloomberg
杰里·辛克。摄影师：杰西卡·庞斯/彭博社
“Rates coming down would help, but then there’s the run-up in housing values,” Sink said. “I can’t afford a house around here. Even on a VA loan, your monthly payment is going to be high. When I was just starting off, I was able to buy into the housing market with a reasonable down payment.”
“利率下降会有所帮助，但随之而来的是房价的上涨，”辛克说。 “我买不起这附近的房子。即使使用 VA 贷款，您的每月还款额也会很高。当我刚起步时，我能够以合理的首付进入房地产市场。”
At 69, Sink is nearing retirement. He’s also cobbling together three jobs — teaching for an online college, flying corporate jets and taking on freelance pilot gigs. After a divorce six years ago, he sold the home he owned with his ex-wife. The proceeds allowed him to pay down his credit card debt, but now those dollars aren’t available to help with a down payment.
69 岁的辛克即将退休。他还拼凑了三份工作——在一所在线大学任教、驾驶公务机以及从事自由飞行员工作。六年前离婚后，他卖掉了与前妻拥有的房屋。所得款项使他能够偿还信用卡债务，但现在这些美元无法用来帮助支付首付。
Source: Cox Automotive Vehicle Affordability IndexIllustration: Carolina Moscoso
资料来源：考克斯汽车可负担性指数插图：Carolina Moscoso
It’s been hard work to keep his place in the middle class, Sink said. He’s also worried about what comes next. “I can handle unexpected expenses with freelance jobs, those help me afford vacations. But when I go into a fixed income, it’s like, ‘Okay, am I going to be able to do that? Can I help my kids when they ask?’”
辛克说，为了保持自己在中产阶级的地位，他付出了艰苦的努力。他也担心接下来会发生什么。 “我可以通过自由职业来处理意外开支，这些可以帮助我负担假期。但当我选择固定收入时，我会想，‘好吧，我能做到吗？当我的孩子提出要求时，我可以帮助他们吗？”
Housing is only one factor in the economic stress. Car-related expenses are another burden, with pricier repairs and more expensive insurance adding to the strain of financing costs.
住房只是经济压力的因素之一。与汽车相关的费用是另一个负担，更昂贵的维修费用和更昂贵的保险增加了融资成本的压力。
Car prices, too, have been taking a toll, said Greg Brannon, director of automotive research at AAA, which now puts the cost of owning a new car at about $1,000 a month compared with $774 before the pandemic. “Car ownership is almost inevitable for many people in the US. It’s something a lot of people look forward to. As Americans, we are accustomed to the freedom of mobility.”
AAA汽车研究总监格雷格·布兰农 (Greg Brannon) 表示，汽车价格也受到了影响，目前拥有一辆新车的成本约为每月 1,000 美元，而疫情前为 774 美元。 “对于许多美国人来说，拥有汽车几乎是不可避免的。这是很多人都期待的事情。作为美国人，我们习惯了行动自由。”
One consequence of higher costs is that people are hanging on to their cars for longer. According to one industry estimate, the average age of passenger cars now on the road has risen to 14 years.
成本上升的后果之一是人们保留汽车的时间更长。据一项行业估计，目前道路上乘用车的平均车龄已上升至 14 年。
For Efran Menny, a 34-year-old teaching coach who lives in Houston with his wife and two sons, getting into the middle class means a constant juggling of costs and trade-offs. At $72,000, his family earns slightly less than the median household income in the US. His wife could earn more at a new job, but unless she could work from home, that would likely mean higher child-care costs, a common complaint for young families.
埃夫兰·曼尼 (Efran Menny) 是一名 34 岁的教练，与妻子和两个儿子住在休斯敦，对于他来说，进入中产阶级意味着不断权衡成本和权衡。他的家庭收入为 72,000 美元，略低于美国家庭收入中位数。他的妻子可以通过新工作赚更多钱，但除非她可以在家工作，否则可能意味着更高的育儿费用，这是年轻家庭的常见抱怨。
Source: Care.comIllustration: Carolina Moscoso
来源：Care.com插图：Carolina Moscoso
Republicans like Trump blame Harris and the Biden administration for the inflation of recent years. But Menny says he and his wife support Harris in part because of her pledge to bring down costs for middle-class families.
特朗普等共和党人将近年来的通货膨胀归咎于哈里斯和拜登政府。但曼尼表示，他和妻子支持哈里斯，部分原因是她承诺降低中产阶级家庭的成本。
The child tax credit that the Biden administration pushed for during the pandemic gave Menny’s family a much needed boost. If it is brought back, as Harris has pledged to do, that might make it easier to pay for child care.
拜登政府在大流行期间推行的儿童税收抵免给曼尼的家人带来了急需的推动。如果像哈里斯承诺的那样将其恢复，可能会更容易支付儿童保育费。
“I definitely am looking for the politician who is best going to promote the well-being of the family and the policies that are going to help the middle class the most,” Menny says.
“我肯定正在寻找最能促进家庭福祉和最能帮助中产阶级的政策的政治家，”曼尼说。
At the same time, though, Menny is trying to save for his boys’ college education, while juggling a mortgage, car payments, grocery costs and medical debt. “I worry about having enough to do some things to equip my family with a better future,” he says. “If things keep rising and the price is so overwhelming, how are we going to compete with our salary?”
但与此同时，曼尼正努力为儿子们的大学教育存钱，同时还要应付抵押贷款、汽车付款、杂货费用和医疗债务。 “我担心是否有足够的时间来做一些事情，让我的家人拥有更美好的未来，”他说。 “如果物价持续上涨，价格如此惊人，我们如何与我们的薪水竞争呢？”
Then there’s what has happened to families’ balance sheets. American households are now sitting on a record $17.8 trillion in debt, $1.14 trillion of which is on credit cards, which tend to have relatively high interest rates.
然后是家庭资产负债表的变化。美国家庭目前背负着创纪录的 17.8 万亿美元债务，其中 1.14 万亿美元是信用卡债务，而信用卡的利率往往相对较高。
Menny says he and his wife support Harris in part because of her pledge to bring down costs for middle-class families.Photographer: Mark Felix/Bloomberg
曼尼说，他和妻子支持哈里斯，部分原因是她承诺降低中产阶级家庭的成本。摄影师：马克·菲利克斯/彭博社
The cost of a college education, traditionally the path to earning a middle-class salary, has risen rapidly, with yearly tuition at some elite schools reaching $90,000 – or more than $350,000 over a typical four-year stay. Some schools offer tuition breaks to families earning $150,000 or less. But more than 40 million Americans are already collectively paying back $1.6 trillion in student loans, a figure that’s more than doubled since 2010. And the interest rates on new loans have risen sharply in recent years.
大学教育传统上是赚取中产阶级工资的途径，但其成本却迅速上升，一些精英学校的年学费达到9 万美元，或者典型的四年学费超过 35 万美元。有些学校为收入 15 万美元或以下的家庭提供学费减免。但超过 4000 万美国人已经总共偿还了1.6 万亿美元的学生贷款，这一数字自 2010 年以来增加了一倍多。而且近年来新贷款的利率急剧上升。
Eric Huber, who works in manufacturing in Wisconsin, is now sitting on $80,000 in student loans, which he’s not sure he’ll ever be able to pay back. That, along with credit card debt, has been a drag on his finances and a key reason he feels like his place in the middle class seems tenuous.
埃里克·胡贝尔 (Eric Huber) 在威斯康星州从事制造业工作，目前背负着 8 万美元的学生贷款，但他不确定自己能否偿还这笔贷款。这与信用卡债务一起拖累了他的财务状况，也是他觉得自己在中产阶级中的地位似乎很脆弱的一个关键原因。
The 45-year-old and his partner, who owns a salon, make between $50,000 and $70,000 a year, but the rising costs of rent and food have hurt. Meanwhile, he’s been in his job for seven years and hasn’t gotten a raise.
这位 45 岁的男子和他拥有一家沙龙的伴侣每年的收入在 5 万至 7 万美元之间，但租金和食品成本的上涨已经造成了影响。与此同时，他已经工作七年了，却没有得到加薪。
Source: College BoardIllustration: Carolina Moscoso
资料来源：大学理事会插图：Carolina Moscoso
“It’s much harder to get into the middle class now — it all depends on the job you have and the education,” he said. “I’ve been poor my whole life but I’ve finally made it — and now my tax bracket may show that, but I still feel working class.”
“现在进入中产阶级要困难得多——这完全取决于你的工作和教育程度，”他说。 “我一生都很穷，但我终于成功了——现在我的税级可能表明了这一点，但我仍然觉得自己是工人阶级。”
In a Harris Poll conducted this summer for Bloomberg News, just 42% of middle-class Americans said the US economy was working for them. In a subsequent installment of the poll at the end of August, more than 60% of middle-class Americans said higher living costs such as rent or mortgages were hurting their financial well-being.
彭博新闻社今年夏天进行的哈里斯民意调查显示，只有 42% 的美国中产阶级表示美国经济对他们有利。在 8 月底的后续民意调查中，超过 60% 的美国中产阶级表示，租金或抵押贷款等生活成本上升正在损害他们的财务状况。
And while the Fed’s recent rate cut is a turning point, it is unlikely to spur immediate changes in behavior. Almost half of middle-class Americans said in the August poll that they planned to make a major purchase if interest rates came down. Though, among those preparing to buy something big, more than 80% said they would wait until rates fell below 5%. Almost a third said they would be looking for rates to sink below 3%.
尽管美联储最近的降息是一个转折点，但它不太可能立即刺激人们的行为发生变化。在八月份的民意调查中，近一半的美国中产阶级表示，如果利率下降，他们计划进行大量购买。不过，在那些准备购买大件商品的人中，超过 80% 的人表示他们会等到利率降至 5% 以下。近三分之一的人表示，他们希望利率降至 3% 以下。
Right now, 30-year mortgage rates are above 6%. Economists say anyone waiting for a return to the sub-3% mortgages is likely to have to wait for another crisis.
目前，30年期抵押贷款利率高于6%。经济学家表示，任何等待低于 3% 抵押贷款利率回归的人都可能不得不等待另一场危机。
“At least in my lifetime, the only times I’ve seen huge drops in mortgage rates were the bursting of the dotcom bubble, the start of the global financial crisis and the start of a global pandemic,” says Divounguy, the Zillow economist.
Zillow 经济学家 Divounguy 表示：“至少在我的一生中，我唯一一次看到抵押贷款利率大幅下降是在互联网泡沫破裂、全球金融危机开始和全球流行病开始时。”
Both Harris and Trump are acutely aware of voters’ economic dismay.
哈里斯和特朗普都敏锐地意识到选民对经济的沮丧。
Harris has focused on what she calls an “opportunity economy” meant to bring down the barriers to joining the middle class and building wealth. She has promised to provide first-time homebuyers with $25,000 in down payment assistance and to spur the construction of 3 million additional new homes in her first term in office. Trump has said he would release more federal land for home construction and argued that reducing immigration and deporting millions of undocumented migrants, as he plans to, would ease demand for real estate.
哈里斯专注于她所说的“机会经济”，旨在消除加入中产阶级和积累财富的障碍。她承诺在第一个任期内向首次购房者提供 25,000 美元的首付援助，并刺激建造 300 万套新房。特朗普表示，他将释放更多联邦土地用于房屋建设，并认为按照他的计划减少移民和驱逐数百万无证移民将缓解对房地产的需求。
But it’s unclear just how effective, or speedy, such measures would be in bringing home costs down significantly.
但目前尚不清楚这些措施在大幅降低家庭成本方面能有多有效或有多快。
Trump’s broader economic sales pitch depends heavily on voters’ memories of pre-pandemic times when costs were lower. His plan hinges on juicing growth in the US by repeating his first-term agenda to reduce taxes and slash regulation while attacking imports with tariffs designed to bring overseas factories home to the US. His supporters argue that approach would mean higher incomes and an easier economic path forward for everyone. Even if he has offered only vague promises on the specifics to address things like health and child care costs.
特朗普更广泛的经济推销在很大程度上取决于选民对大流行前成本较低的时期的记忆。他的计划取决于通过重复他的第一任期议程来刺激美国的增长，即减税和削减监管，同时通过旨在将海外工厂迁回美国的关税来打击进口。他的支持者认为，这种做法对每个人来说都意味着更高的收入和更容易的经济发展道路。即使他只就解决健康和儿童保育费用等问题的具体细节做出了模糊的承诺。
Harris, in addition to her housing policies, has touted a $6,000 child tax credit to help parents cope, a cap on child-care costs for working families at 7% of income, and a $50,000 tax deduction for people starting small businesses, all ideas that would take the cooperation of Congress to implement.
哈里斯除了住房政策外，还宣扬了 6,000 美元的儿童税收抵免，以帮助父母应对困难，将工薪家庭的儿童保育费用上限控制在收入的 7%，以及为开办小企业的人提供50,000 美元的税收减免，所有这些想法这需要国会的合作才能实施。
What may in the end motivate voters is not the specific policy ideas, but whether they feel economic security might become more attainable.
最终激励选民的不是具体的政策理念，而是他们是否认为经济安全可能变得更容易实现。
Lisa Prescott, a 76-year-old grandmother who used to work in banking, moved to Ann Arbor, Michigan, with her husband, a retired CPA, a few years ago to be closer to her son and his children. They sold their Oregon home and bought a condo. Rising costs have left them budgeting more carefully and traveling less freely than they once did.
丽莎·普雷斯科特 (Lisa Prescott) 是一位 76 岁的祖母，曾在银行工作，几年前，她与退休注册会计师丈夫搬到了密歇根州安娜堡，以便离儿子和孩子们更近一些。他们卖掉了俄勒冈州的房子，买了一套公寓。成本上升让他们比以前更加谨慎地制定预算，出行也变得更加自由。
But it’s the future ahead for her children and grandchildren that she finds most worrisome. “People who are in their 20s and 30s and 40s — what's the prospect of them being able to purchase a home? These basics are becoming out of reach,” Prescott says. “I’m pessimistic about the future of a healthy middle class.” — With assistance from Gregory Korte
但她发现最令人担忧的是她的孩子和孙子的未来。 “20多岁、30多岁和40多岁的人——他们买房的前景如何？这些基础知识正在变得遥不可及，”普雷斯科特说。 “我对健康的中产阶级的未来感到悲观。” — 在**Gregory Korte的协助下
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Housing affordability figures based on Bloomberg Economics analysis of National Association of Realtors data. Car data based on Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index. Child-care expenses based on Bloomberg analysis of Care.com data. Higher education figures based on College Board annual calculations of cost of attendance.
住房负担能力数据基于彭博经济对全国房地产经纪人协会数据的分析。汽车数据基于 Cox Automotive/Moody's Analytics 车辆承受能力指数。儿童保育费用基于彭博社对 Care.com 数据的分析。高等教育数据基于美国大学理事会每年对就读费用的计算。
