But it will need more help from the government
但它需要政府提供更多帮助

The start of a new cycle?Photograph: Getty Images 新周期的开始？盖蒂图片社

Sep 24th 2024|Hong Kong

As China’s economy has descended into deflation, the central bank’s lack of urgency has been a source of frustration for many economists. Policymakers at the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) initially expressed confidence that deflation was, so to speak, transitory. When it then persisted, they worried less about falling prices than about the side-effects of fighting them. They were reluctant to ease monetary policy decisively as China’s currency was too weak, banks’ profit margins too slim and bond yields too low.
随着中国经济陷入通货紧缩，央行缺乏紧迫感令许多经济学家感到沮丧。中国人民银行（PBoC）的政策制定者最初表示，相信通货紧缩可以说是暂时的。当通货紧缩持续时，他们担心的不是物价下跌，而是对抗通货紧缩的副作用。他们不愿果断放松货币政策，因为中国的货币太弱，银行的利润率太低，债券收益率太低。

But at a press conference on September 24th the central bank revealed a change of heart. It announced a set of policies that was unusually bold. Officials said they would cut the PBoC’s policy interest rate by 0.2 percentage points, lower banks’ reserve requirements by half a percentage point and reduce interest rates on existing mortgages by about half a percentage point. It is unusual for China’s central bank to ease on two fronts at once, let alone three. Pan Gongsheng, the PBoC’s governor, said it might do more in the near future, perhaps cutting reserve requirements by another quarter- or half-point this year. Such “forward guidance” is unprecedented in China, notes Morgan Stanley, a bank.
但是，在 9 月 24 日的新闻发布会上，央行的态度发生了转变。它宣布了一系列不同寻常的大胆政策。官员们说，他们将把中国人民银行的政策利率下调 0.2 个百分点，把银行存款准备金率降低半个百分点，把现有抵押贷款利率降低约半个百分点。中国央行同时在两个方面放松是不寻常的，更不用说三个方面了。中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，近期可能会采取更多措施，今年可能会再下调存款准备金率四分之一或半个百分点。摩根士丹利银行指出，这种 "前瞻性指导 "在中国是前所未有的。

The press briefing yielded another surprise. China’s central bank already has a variety of “structural” tools to assist industries as diverse as clean coal and care for the elderly. Now it has come up with a similar innovation to enable it to support the stockmarket, Mr Pan announced. The PBoC will help firms buy back their own shares by refinancing bank loans used for that purpose. And it will help securities companies and other institutional investors to raise funds by making their balance-sheets more liquid. They will be able to borrow liquid assets like government bonds and central-bank bills from the PBoC, using their own holdings of blue-chip shares and stock ETFs as collateral.
新闻发布会还带来了另一个惊喜。中国央行已经拥有多种 "结构性 "工具来帮助清洁煤炭和老年人护理等不同行业。潘先生宣布，中国央行现在又推出了类似的创新举措，以支持股票市场。人民银行将通过为银行贷款再融资，帮助企业回购自己的股票。人民银行还将帮助证券公司和其他机构投资者提高资产负债表的流动性，从而筹集资金。他们将可以用自己持有的蓝筹股和股票ETF作为抵押，从人民银行借入政府债券和中央银行票据等流动资产。

What accounts for the central bank’s newfound boldness? Fear is one motive. Recent economic data have been discouraging. The powerful Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party felt the need to devote its September meeting to the economy, resolving to help “stabilise” the property market. Earlier this month Yi Gang, the central bank’s former governor, warned that the country’s policymakers “should focus on fighting deflationary pressure”.
是什么原因让央行有了新的胆识？恐惧是动机之一。近期的经济数据令人沮丧。强大的中共中央政治局认为有必要在 9 月份的会议上专门讨论经济问题，并决心帮助 "稳定 "房地产市场。本月早些时候，央行前行长易纲警告说，中国的决策者 "应集中精力应对通货紧缩压力"。

The central bank has also become less afraid of the side-effects of that fight. When America’s Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point on September 18th, it gave China’s central bank room to move. It is now able to lower its own rates without dangerously weakening its currency. The yuan has risen by 3% against the dollar since the end of July.
央行也不再害怕这场斗争的副作用。9 月 18 日，美国联邦储备委员会将利率下调了半个百分点，这为中国央行提供了行动空间。现在，中国能够在不削弱本国货币的情况下降低利率。自 7 月底以来，人民币对美元汇率已上涨 3%。

Mr Pan also thinks his new package will have a “neutral” effect on bank profits. Monetary easing can have the unfortunate effect of squeezing bank margins, as loan rates tend to fall faster than deposit rates. But Mr Pan hopes that the rates banks pay and charge will fall in tandem, leaving the margin between them largely intact.
潘先生还认为，他的新方案将对银行利润产生 "中性 "影响。宽松货币政策可能会产生挤压银行利润的不利影响，因为贷款利率的下降速度往往快于存款利率。但潘先生希望，银行支付的利率和收取的利率将同步下降，使两者之间的利差基本保持不变。

Cutting interest rates on existing mortgages could nonetheless hurt the banks. Chinese home loans are hard to refinance. So when interest rates fall, older mortgages tend to have higher rates than newer ones. Reducing that gap will save 50m households about 150bn yuan ($21bn) a year, equal to 2.5% of their disposable income, according to Goldman Sachs, a bank. At the same time, it will deprive banks of an equivalent sum. Their only consolation is that the policy will also discourage early mortgage repayment, another threat to their profits. And Mr Pan accepts that banks will prepare before implementing the new policy. “So don’t run to the bank this afternoon,” he quipped.
然而，降低现有抵押贷款的利率可能会损害银行的利益。中国的住房贷款很难再融资。因此，当利率下降时，旧房贷的利率往往高于新房贷。银行高盛（Goldman Sachs）的数据显示，缩小这一差距将为 5000 万户家庭每年节省约 1,500 亿元人民币（210 亿美元），相当于他们可支配收入的 2.5%。与此同时，这也将使银行损失同等数额的资金。唯一让银行感到欣慰的是，这项政策还将阻止提前偿还按揭贷款，这是对银行利润的另一个威胁。潘先生承认，银行会在实施新政策前做好准备。"因此，今天下午不要跑到银行去。

Even if old mortgage rates were reduced in an afternoon, it would not bring immediate relief. Household savings of 150bn yuan might translate into extra consumer spending of only 53bn yuan, according to Raymond Yeung of ANZ, another bank. That is less than 0.05% of China’s projected GDP for this year. “More demand-side measures are needed,” he says.
即使旧的房贷利率在一个下午内下调，也不会带来立竿见影的效果。另一家银行 澳新银行的 Raymond Yeung 表示，1500 亿元的家庭储蓄可能只转化为 530 亿元的额外消费支出。这还不到中国今年预计GDP的 0.05%。"他说："需要采取更多需求方面的措施。

The bulk of those measures will have to come not from China’s monetary policymakers but from its fiscal authorities. The central government may announce an increase in the country’s budget deficit later this year, as it did last year, according to Xing Zhaopeng, also of ANZ. For their part, local governments might also issue more bonds than planned, since they have not used all of the quotas assigned to them by Beijing in recent years. With reduced interest rates and low bond yields, the central bank has “created a good monetary environment for China to implement a proactive fiscal policy”, Mr Pan said at the press conference. With luck, China’s government will take the hint. ■
这些措施的主体将不是中国的货币政策制定者，而是中国的财政当局。澳新银行的邢兆鹏认为，中央政府可能会像去年一样，在今年晚些时候宣布增加预算赤字。就地方政府而言，它们也可能会发行比计划更多的债券，因为近年来它们尚未用完中国政府分配给它们的所有配额。潘功胜在新闻发布会上说，随着利率下调和债券收益率走低，央行 "为中国实施积极的财政政策创造了良好的货币环境"。幸运的话，中国政府会接受这一暗示。 ■