That will squeeze financial markets and the world economy
这将挤压金融市场和世界经济
photograph: reuters 照片：路透社
Apr 17th 2024 2024 年 4 月 17 日
For most of the year everyone from stockpickers and homebuyers to President Joe Biden has banked on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates soon. Over the past two weeks those hopes have been dashed. Annual consumer price inflation in March, at 3.5%, was higher than expected for the third month in a row; retail sales grew by a boomy 0.7% on the previous month. On April 16th Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, warned that the battle against inflation was taking “longer than expected”. Investors had begun 2024 pricing in more than 1.5 percentage points of interest-rate cuts over the course of the year. Today they expect rates to fall by only 0.5 points.
今年大部分时间里，从选股人和购房者到乔-拜登总统，每个人都寄希望于美联储很快降息。过去两周，这些希望破灭了。3 月份的年度消费物价通胀率为 3.5%，连续第三个月高于预期；零售销售额较上月增长了 0.7%，增长乏力。4 月 16 日，美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）警告说，与通胀作斗争的时间 "比预期的要长"。2024 年伊始，投资者曾预计年内降息超过 1.5 个百分点。如今，他们预计利率只会下降 0.5 个百分点。
Mr Powell has conducted a pivot upon a pivot. The euphoric expectations for rate cuts took on a life of their own after the Fed turned too doveish in December. That unduly stimulated the economy and will force the central bank to retrace its steps, and then some. The consequences of higher-for-longer interest rates will reverberate around America, financial markets and the world economy.
鲍威尔先生进行了一次又一次的转折。美联储在 12 月过于鸽派之后，市场对降息的亢奋预期开始萌生。这不适当地刺激了经济，将迫使央行回调，然后再回调一些。长期加息的后果将波及美国、金融市场和世界经济。
America’s economy has demonstrated that it can withstand at least a temporary period of higher rates. On April 16th the imf forecast that it would grow by 2.7% in 2024, up from the 2.1% it expected in January. Yet its resilience to prolonged exposure to high rates is less certain.
美国经济已经证明，它至少能够承受暂时的利率上升。4 月 16 日，国际货币基金组织预测，2024 年美国经济将增长 2.7%，高于 1 月份预期的 2.1%。然而，美国经济对长期高利率的承受力就不那么确定了。
Many companies issued corporate debt during the pandemic when rates were much lower. That has helped them cope with high rates so far; but eventually they will have to refinance and pay up. Mortgage-interest rates of nearly 7% have frozen much of the housing market. America’s high and rapidly growing government debt is also becoming much more expensive to service: the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds has risen to about 4.6% from 4.2% at the end of March. Already the most recent forecasts, predicated on lower rates, saw net interest absorbing more of this year’s federal budget than defence.
许多公司在大流行病期间发行了公司债，当时的利率要低得多。到目前为止，这帮助他们应对了高利率，但最终他们将不得不重新融资并支付高额利息。近 7% 的抵押贷款利率冻结了大部分住房市场。美国高额且快速增长的政府债务的还本付息成本也越来越高：十年期国债收益率已从 3 月底的 4.2% 上升到约 4.6%。根据最新的预测，在利率降低的情况下，净利息在今年联邦预算中的占比将超过国防预算。
Financial markets will also feel the effects of continued high rates. The Fed’s doveishness in December propelled a stockmarket boom; though that recently lost steam, the s&p 500 index of stocks remains a fifth above its level at the end of October, when rates were last expected to stay higher for longer. Stocks now look vulnerable to a correction.
金融市场也将感受到持续高利率的影响。美联储在 12 月份的鸽派政策推动了股市的繁荣；尽管最近这种繁荣势头有所减弱，但标准普尔 500 指数仍比 10 月底的水平高出五分之一，当时人们最后一次预期利率会持续走高。现在看来，股市很容易出现调整。
Moreover, the problems that high rates exposed in America’s banking system in 2023 still lurk. At the last count there were $478bn of unrealised losses on banks’ balance-sheets, much of which result from higher rates reducing the value of government and mortgage-backed bonds. That figure will have risen now that bond yields have shot up again.
此外，2023 年高利率在美国银行系统中暴露出的问题仍然潜伏着。据统计，银行资产负债表上有 4780 亿美元的未实现损失，其中大部分是由于利率上升降低了政府债券和抵押贷款支持债券的价值。由于债券收益率再次飙升，这一数字还会上升。
The consequences of higher rates in America will also ripple out to the rest of the world. Though there are signs of somewhat sticky inflation elsewhere—Britain’s consumer price inflation was also higher than expected in March—no major economy is as hot as America’s. The imf’s forecast for euro-zone growth this year, for example, is just 0.8%. The result is a strengthening dollar, which is up about 5% against its biggest trading partners this year. Strikingly, the Japanese yen has slipped to nearly 155 against the greenback, despite a historic (though modest) monetary tightening in March, prompting speculation that the government may intervene to defend the currency directly.
美国提高利率的后果也将波及世界其他地区。尽管有迹象表明其他地区的通胀率有些不稳定--英国 3 月份的消费物价通胀率也高于预期，但没有哪个主要经济体像美国那样炙手可热。例如，国际货币基金组织预测欧元区今年的经济增长率仅为 0.8%。其结果是美元走强，今年美元对其最大贸易伙伴的汇率上涨了约 5%。令人震惊的是，尽管日元在 3 月份采取了历史性的货币紧缩政策（虽然力度不大），但日元对美元的汇率已跌至近 155 点，这促使人们猜测日本政府可能会进行干预，以直接保护日元。
In theory a stronger dollar should help the rest of the world by making its exports more competitive, and growth in America should spill across borders as it sucks in imports. But a surging greenback can also disrupt trade and borrowing that is denominated in dollars. Economies that rely on commodity imports, such as Japan’s, face a double squeeze from a stronger greenback and a rising dollar price of oil, which is up by about 20% since early December and could rise a little further if strife in the Middle East worsens.
从理论上讲，美元走强应有助于世界其他国家，使其出口更具竞争力，而美国的经济增长也应随着吸纳进口而跨越国界。但美元飙升也会扰乱以美元计价的贸易和借贷。依赖大宗商品进口的经济体，如日本，面临着美元走强和油价上涨的双重挤压。
If high interest rates in America end its enviable economic run, rate cuts will eventually follow. Until then, America’s monetary policy will remain a tricky problem for the rest of the world. ■
如果美国的高利率结束了其令人羡慕的经济运行，降息终将随之而来。在此之前，美国的货币政策仍将是世界其他国家面临的棘手问题。■
