• Confidence is returning after government stepped up support
  政府加大支持力度后信心正在恢复
• Mainland stocks are set to snap record run of monthly outflows
  内地股市将打破月度流出纪录

By Bloomberg News 作者：布隆伯格新闻 2024年2月23日 at GMT+8 13:16

China’s assets are showing signs of a revival after a painful run of losses, and confidence is growing that the recovery will have depth.
中国的资产在经历了一轮痛苦的亏损后，正显示出复苏的迹象，而且人们对复苏的深度也越来越有信心。

A salvo of rescue measures in recent months has fueled the biggest upturn in Chinese equities since Beijing scrapped its Covid restrictions in late 2022. Liquidity in bonds and stocks has improved, currency volatility is falling and credit spreads have tightened — all pointing to a recovery that may prove to be more lasting than previous rallies.
最近几个月的一系列救市措施推动中国股市出现了自2022年底中国政府取消Covid限制以来的最大涨势。债券和股票的流动性有所改善，货币波动性下降，信贷息差收窄--这一切都预示着中国股市的复苏可能比之前的反弹更为持久。

A sustained improvement will offer investors a huge opportunity as some of the nation’s assets are near the cheapest they have ever been versus their peers with analysts saying valuations are at or near historic lows. A recovery would also stanch the capital flight from the country and pave the way for China to lead an outperformance by emerging markets when US interest rates begin to decline.
分析师称，中国的一些资产估值已处于或接近历史低点，与同类国家相比，中国的资产价格已接近历史最便宜水平，因此，中国经济的持续改善将为投资者提供巨大的机会。经济复苏还将阻止资本外逃，并为中国在美国利率开始下降时引领新兴市场跑赢大盘铺平道路。

To be clear, there’s still some caution in the market: Nomura Holdings Inc. likened the task of predicting the bottom in Chinese stocks to a “fool’s errand” while consumer demand and earnings have yet to improve. Still, there’s a growing conviction that the recovery may strengthen over time.
需要明确的是，市场仍存在一些谨慎情绪：野村控股公司（Nomura Holdings Inc. ）将预测中国股市的底部比作 "痴人说梦"，因为消费需求和盈利尚未改善。不过，人们越来越相信，随着时间的推移，经济复苏可能会加强。

A Pause in Foreign Outflows 外资流出暂停

Overseas investors are set to end their record monthly selling streak in mainland stocks
海外投资者将结束对内地股市创纪录的月度连续抛售

Source: Bloomberg 来源：彭博社来源：彭博社

Equities Rebound 股市反弹

Nowhere is the turn in sentiment more visible than the stock market. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is the world’s best-performing primary gauge this month, a remarkable turnaround from last year when it ranked among the worst laggards globally. The index has scored its biggest trough-to-peak gain since the reopening rally, putting it less than 5 percentage points away from entering into a so-called technical bull market.
情绪的转变最明显的莫过于股市。恒生中国企业指数是本月全球表现最好的主要指数，与去年全球表现最差的指数相比，这是一个了不起的转变。该指数创下了自复盘反弹以来从谷底到峰值的最大涨幅，使其距离进入所谓的技术性牛市只有不到 5 个百分点的距离。

Against this backdrop, the longest ever streak of monthly outflows from mainland equities looks set to come to an end in February. Calls are growing for investors to consider picking up undervalued Chinese stocks, with market veterans such as Mark Mobius growing more optimistic due to valuations and improving return ratios.
在此背景下，内地股市有史以来最长的连续月度资金外流似乎将在二月份结束。越来越多的投资者呼吁考虑购买价值被低估的中国股票，马克-莫比乌斯（Mark Mobius）等市场资深人士也因估值和回报率的改善而变得更加乐观。

“Investor confidence in China, both in the short and long term, are already close to extreme levels of bearishness,” said Han Piow Liew, the head of equity derivatives at Maitri Asset Management Pte. “There is perhaps a higher probability that these moves alleviate a crisis of confidence and create a stronger base for investors,” he said, referring to Beijing’s rescue measures.
"Maitri Asset Management Pte.的股票衍生品主管Han Piow Liew说："投资者对中国的信心，无论是短期还是长期，都已经接近极度看跌的水平，"他在谈到中国政府的救市措施时说："这些举措缓解了信心危机，为投资者创造了更坚实的基础，这种可能性也许更大。

Stabilizing Yuan 稳定人民币

The offshore yuan has stabilized around 7.2 per dollar after tumbling to the weakest in almost a year in September. One-month implied volatility for the dollar-offshore yuan pair is hovering near the lowest since 2022, suggesting traders are not expecting big swings in the near term.
离岸人民币在 9 月份跌至近一年来的最弱水平后，已稳定在 1 美元兑 7.2 元左右。美元兑离岸人民币汇率的一个月隐含波动率徘徊在2022年以来的最低点附近，这表明交易商预计短期内不会出现大幅波动。

Bond Inflows 债券流入

China’s 10-year government bond yield is lingering near the lowest level since 2002 as investors bet the central bank will maintain a dovish stance to support the economic recovery. The growing confidence, along with lucrative yield pick-up in swap trades, has fueled a resumption of inflows into the world’s second-largest bond market in the past quarter.
中国 10 年期国债收益率徘徊在 2002 年以来的最低水平附近，因为投资者押注央行将保持鸽派立场，以支持经济复苏。信心的增强，加上掉期交易中有利可图的收益率回升，在过去一个季度里推动了资金重新流入这个世界第二大债券市场。

Improving Liquidity 改善流动性

A move by the People’s Bank of China to lower lenders’ reserve requirement ratio in February has helped alleviate the liquidity stress in the financial system. The cost of one-year negotiable certificates of deposit, a popular short-term debt issued by AAA-rated banks, tumbled to the lowest since August 2023 this week.
中国人民银行二月份降低贷款人存款准备金率的举措有助于缓解金融体系的流动性压力。本周，一年期可转让存单的成本跌至 2023 年 8 月以来的最低点，这种由 AAA 级银行发行的短期债券很受欢迎。

Credit Optimism 信贷乐观

China’s junk dollar bonds, dominated by property developers’ notes, saw their biggest daily gain in almost a month on Tuesday, according to an index compiled by Bloomberg. The rise followed a move by Chinese lenders to cut the five-year loan prime rate by a record 25 basis points to 3.95%.
彭博社编制的指数显示，以房地产开发商票据为主的中国垃圾美元债券周二创下近一个月来的最大单日涨幅。此前，中国贷款机构将五年期贷款最优惠利率下调了创纪录的 25 个基点，至 3.95%。

— With assistance from Abhishek Vishnoi, Wenjin Lv, and Pearl Liu
- Abhishek Vishnoi、吕文锦和 Pearl Liu 提供协助