Optimism about the world’s second-largest stockmarket is a distant memory 
对全球第二大股市的乐观情绪已成为遥远的记忆

image: getty images 图片：盖蒂图片社

2024 年 1 月 22 日 |新加坡

Every day brings more misery for China’s foreign investors. Some are most worried by China’s souring relations with Western governments. Others fret about the unprecedented slump in the country’s property market. Many are simply tired of losing money. On January 22nd the csi 300 index of Chinese shares dropped by 1.6%; it is now nearly a quarter below its level of a year ago. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell by 2.3% on the day, and is more than a third below its level at the start of 2023.
中国的外国投资者的痛苦一天比一天多。一些人最担心的是中国与西方政府的关系恶化。其他人则对该国房地产市场前所未有的低迷感到担忧。许多人只是厌倦了赔钱。 1月22日中概股沪深300指数下跌1.6%；现在比一年前的水平低了近四分之一。与此同时，香港恒生指数当天下跌 2.3%，较 2023 年初的水平低三分之一以上。

Heady optimism about China Inc. is an increasingly distant memory. Just five years ago investors clamoured for exposure to the country’s growth miracle and sought diversification from rich-world markets, which often move in lockstep. Providers of the world’s most important stock indices—ftse and msci—were making adjustments accordingly. Between 2018 and 2020 Chinese stocks listed onshore, known as a-shares, were added to the benchmark emerging-markets index.
对中国公司的乐观乐观情绪已逐渐成为遥远的记忆。就在五年前，投资者还热衷于分享中国的增长奇迹，并寻求摆脱富裕国家市场的多元化，而这些市场往往步调一致。全球最重要股票指数的提供商——富时指数和摩根士丹利资本国际指数——正在做出相应的调整。 2018年至2020年间，在岸上市的中国股票（即A股）被纳入基准新兴市场指数。

image: the economist 图片来源：《经济学家》

At their peak in 2020 Chinese firms made up over 40% of the index by value. In 2022 foreigners owned $1.2trn-worth of stocks, or 5-10% of the total, in mainland China and Hong Kong. One investment manager describes the challenge of investing in emerging markets while avoiding China as like investing in developed markets while avoiding America. So how will investors do it? And where will their money flow instead?
在 2020 年的巅峰时期，中国企业的价值占该指数的 40% 以上。 2022 年，外国人在中国大陆和香港拥有价值 1.2 万美元的股票，占总数的 5-10%。一位投资经理描述了投资新兴市场但避开中国所面临的挑战，就像投资发达市场但避开美国一样。那么投资者将如何做呢？他们的钱又会流向哪里？

Some investment firms are eager to help. Jupiter Asset Management, Putnam Investments and Vontobel all launched actively managed “ex-China” funds in 2023. An emerging-market, ex-China, exchange-traded fund (etf) issued by BlackRock is now the fifth-largest emerging-market equity etf, with $8.7bn in assets under management, up from $5.7bn in July.
一些投资公司很乐意提供帮助。 Jupiter Asset Management、Putnam Investments 和 Vontobel 均于 2023 年推出了主动管理型“中国以外”基金。贝莱德发行的一只新兴市场（中国除外）交易所交易基金 (ETF) 目前已成为第五大新兴市场股票ETF 管理的资产达 87 亿美元，高于 7 月份的 57 亿美元。

A handful of large emerging stockmarkets are benefiting. Money has poured into India, South Korea and Taiwan, whose shares together make up more than 60% of ex-China emerging-market stocks. These markets received around $16bn in the final three months of 2023. Squint and the countries together look something like China: a fast-growing middle-income country with potential for huge consumption growth (India) and two that are home to advanced Asian industry (Taiwan and South Korea).
少数大型新兴股市正在受益。资金涌入印度、韩国和台湾，这些国家的股票合计占除中国以外的新兴市场股票的60%以上。这些市场在 2023 年最后三个月获得了约 160 亿美元的收入。Squint 和这些国家加在一起看起来很像中国：一个快速增长的中等收入国家，具有巨大的消费增长潜力（印度），另外两个国家都是亚洲先进工业的发源地（台湾和韩国）。

image: the economist 图片来源：《经济学家》

Western investors looking for exposure to China’s industrial stocks are also turning to Japan, encouraged by its corporate-governance reforms. Last year foreign investors ploughed ¥3trn ($20bn) into Japanese equity funds, the most in a decade. For those with broad mandates, different asset classes are an option. Asia-focused funds investing in real assets, including infrastructure, have grown in popularity.
受到公司治理改革的鼓舞，寻求投资中国工业股票的西方投资者也开始转向日本。去年，外国投资者向日本股票基金投入了 3 万日元（200 亿美元），为十年来最多。对于那些拥有广泛授权的人来说，不同的资产类别是一种选择。投资于包括基础设施在内的实物资产的亚洲基金越来越受欢迎。

Yet these various alternatives have flaws of their own. Unlike China’s cheap offerings, Indian stocks are expensive. They have higher price-to-earnings ratios than those in other big emerging markets. Although Japan’s stocks look relatively cheap, they make an odd choice for investors seeking rapid income growth. Likewise, Taiwanese and South Korean stocks are included among emerging markets because of the liquidity and accessibility of their exchanges, but both economies are mature high-income ones.
然而，这些不同的替代方案都有其自身的缺陷。与中国的廉价股票不同，印度股票价格昂贵。它们的市盈率高于其他大型新兴市场。尽管日本股票看起来相对便宜，但对于寻求收入快速增长的投资者来说，它们是一个奇怪的选择。同样，台湾和韩国股票由于其交易所的流动性和可访问性而被纳入新兴市场，但这两个经济体都是成熟的高收入经济体。

Size is a problem, too. Many of the places benefiting as supply chains move away from China are home to puny public markets. Even after fast growth, India’s total market capitalisation runs to just $4trn—not even a third of Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen combined. When msci released its emerging-market index in 1988, Malaysia accounted for a third of its stocks by value. The country now represents less than 2%. Brazil, Chile and Mexico together made up another third; today they make up less than 10%.
尺寸也是一个问题。随着供应链从中国转移，许多受益的地方都是微不足道的公共市场。即使在快速增长之后，印度的总市值也仅为 4 万美元，连香港、上海和深圳总市值的三分之一都不到。当摩根士丹利资本国际 (MSCI) 于 1988 年发布其新兴市场指数时，按价值计算，马来西亚占其股票的三分之一。该国目前所占比例不足2%。巴西、智利和墨西哥合计占据三分之一；如今，他们的比例还不到 10%。

And whereas returns on Chinese investments tend to follow their own logic, smaller economies are more exposed to the vagaries of the dollar and American interest rates. According to research by ubs Asset Management, Chinese stocks had a correlation of 0.56 with those in the rich world between December 2008 and July 2023 (a score of one suggests the stocks rise and fall in tandem; zero suggests no correlation). By contrast, stocks from emerging markets excluding China had a correlation of 0.84 with rich-world equities.
尽管中国投资的回报往往遵循自己的逻辑，但较小的经济体更容易受到美元和美国利率变化的影响。根据瑞银资产管理公司的研究，2008年12月至2023年7月期间，中国股票与发达国家股票的相关性为0.56（1分表明股票涨跌同步；0分表明没有相关性）。相比之下，除中国以外的新兴市场股票与发达国家股票的相关性为 0.84。

The emergence and growth of funds that pledge to cut out China will make life easier for investors who wish to avoid the world’s second-largest stockmarket. Without a turnaround in the country’s economic fortunes, or a sustained cooling of tensions between Beijing and Washington, interest in such strategies will grow. They will not, however, evoke the sort of enthusiasm investors once felt about China. ■
承诺退出中国的基金的出现和增长将使那些希望避开全球第二大股市的投资者的日子好过一些。如果中国的经济命运没有好转，或者北京和华盛顿之间的紧张关系持续降温，人们对此类战略的兴趣将会增加。然而，它们不会激起投资者曾经对中国产生的热情。 ■