Risk of wider war grows as U.S., Israel and its enemies respond to attack.
哈马斯武装分子上周六袭击了以色列，随着以色列、该国的敌人以及主要伙伴美国对这些令人震惊的事件做出反应时，新的、未经检验的博弈规则可能把以色列和哈马斯之间的血腥对抗变成一场更广泛的战争。
哈马斯武装分子上周六在迅速突破以色列边境防御工事并占领军事基地后大开杀戒。图片来源：JACK GUEZ/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Yaroslav Trofimov 2023年10月12日17:10 CST 更新
DUBAI—Saturday’s attack on Israel by Hamas militants, who killed more than 1,200 people and kidnapped many others back to the Gaza Strip, has upended fundamental assumptions about the Middle East.
哈马斯(Hamas)武装分子上周六袭击以色列，杀死了1,200多人，还将更多人绑架回加沙地带，这一事件破坏了中东地区的基本现状。
Now, as Israel, its enemies and its main partner, the U.S., respond to these shocking events, the new—and untested—rules of the game risk turning the bloody confrontation between Israel and Hamas into a much wider war.
现在，随着以色列、该国的敌人以及主要伙伴美国对这些令人震惊的事件做出反应，新的、未经检验的博弈规则可能把以色列和哈马斯之间的血腥对抗变成一场更广泛的战争。
Israel’s expected land operation against Hamas in Gaza, and the reaction to it by Iran and its group of allied Islamist militias around the region, could determine the new balance of power in the Middle East and the new set of understandings about the region’s future.
以色列预期将在加沙对哈马斯采取的陆上行动，以及伊朗及其在该地区的伊斯兰民兵盟友对此的反应，可能决定中东地区新的力量平衡和对该地区未来的新认识。
“Hamas inflicted this surprise, devastating attack because it wanted to change the equation, not just between Hamas and Israel, but also between Israel and the axis of Iranian supporters and Iranian proxies,” said reserve Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, a former head of research for Israeli military intelligence. “Israel now wants to change the equation, too, but in the other direction—if we kick Hamas out of Gaza.”
以色列军事情报局前研究负责人、预备役准将Yossi Kuperwasser表示，哈马斯发动这次突如其来的毁灭性袭击，是因为它想改变平衡，不仅是哈马斯与以色列之间的平衡，也是以色列与伊朗支持者和伊朗代理人轴心之间的平衡。他称：”以色列现在也想改变平衡，但却是朝另一个方向——我们想把哈马斯赶出加沙。”
Should Israel manage to eliminate Hamas as Gaza’s dominant force, it would reverse one critical aspect of the fallout from Saturday’s events: the crumbling of the long-cultivated perception of Israel’s superior military and intelligence prowess. After swiftly breaching costly Israeli border fortifications and overrunning military bases, Hamas gunmen went on a killing spree—causing the worst loss of Jewish lives since the Holocaust.
如果以色列设法消灭了哈马斯这支加沙的主导力量，将扭转上周六事件的一个关键影响，即长期以来形成的以色列在军事和情报方面拥有优势的看法正崩塌。哈马斯枪手迅速突破了以色列耗资巨大的边境防御工事并攻占了一些军事基地，随后开始了疯狂杀戮，造成二战期间纳粹对犹太人大屠杀以来最严重的犹太人丧生事件。
上周六，巴勒斯坦人在加沙地带一座燃烧的以色列军事哨塔前站着。图片来源：HATEM ALI/ASSOCIATED PRESS
上周六对以色列发动的袭击造成1,200多人死亡，还有许多人被绑架。图片来源：APA IMAGES/ZUMA PRESS
The attack destroyed another assumption, long cultivated by Hamas’s backers such as Turkey and Qatar, and accepted by many in the West and even inside parts of the Israeli establishment: that the Islamist group had somehow moderated its original ideology, which seeks the elimination of any Jewish presence between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean.
这次袭击打破了另一种假设，即哈马斯在某种程度上缓和了其最初的意识形态——寻求消灭约旦河和地中海之间的任何犹太人存在。这是土耳其和卡塔尔等哈马斯的支持者长时间营造的一种假设，为西方许多人乃至以色列权力集团内部的部分人所接受。
Aiming to put a new gloss on its goals, Hamas in 2017 even issued a policy statement that said that its conflict is with “the Zionist project” rather than Jews, and implied acceptance of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza—though still rejecting Israel’s right to exist.
为了给自己的目标披上新的外衣，哈马斯甚至在2017年发表了一份政策声明，称其瞄准的对象是“犹太复国主义计划”，并不是犹太人，并暗示接受在约旦河西岸和加沙地带建立一个巴勒斯坦国，但仍不承认以色列。
The horrors of the Hamas assault have also punctured the notion, long championed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that Palestinian aspirations could be reduced to a manageable nuisance, and that the occupation could persist, even as Israel pursues new relationships in the Arab world.
哈马斯袭击带来的恐怖也打破了以色列总理内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)长期以来所倡导的理念，即巴勒斯坦渴望达到的目标可以被降低为一种可控的麻烦，即使以色列在阿拉伯世界寻求新的关系，也可以让巴勒斯坦人继续占据约旦河西岸和加沙。
“The Netanyahu doctrine that you can ignore the Palestinians without paying a price has been shattered,” said Mairav Zonszein, an expert on Israel and Palestine at the International Crisis Group. “It turns out that, no matter how much economic and military and diplomatic power you have, your entire country can ground to a halt.”
国际危机组织(International Crisis Group)的以色列和巴勒斯坦问题专家Mairav Zonszein说：“内塔尼亚胡认为即使不理会巴勒斯坦人可能也不会有严重后果的看法已经被打破。”Zonszein称：“事实证明，无论你的经济、军事和外交实力有多强，都有可能举国陷入停滞。”
More Israeli citizens were killed Saturday than during the entire Second Intifada of 2000-2005, she said.
她表示，以色列在上周六被杀的公民人数，比在2000年至2005年整个第二次巴勒斯坦大起义(Second Intifada)期间还要多。
The corollary of this new reality is that the U.S. is having to return to the Middle East, reversing the trend of three consecutive administrations that had tried to pivot away and focus on other global challenges such as China and, since last year’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia.
这一新现实的必然结果是，美国不得不重返中东，扭转美国连续三届政府试图将重点转向别处、专注于其他全球挑战（诸如中国以及去年入侵乌克兰之后的俄罗斯）的趋势。
以色列对这次袭击的回应，以及伊朗及其盟友伊斯兰武装团体对其的反应，可能决定中东地区新的力量平衡。图片来源：NASSER ISHTAYEH/SOPA IMAGES/ZUMA PRESS
The Biden administration has already dispatched two carrier groups to the Eastern Mediterranean, as part of an effort to deter Iran and its Lebanese protégé, Hezbollah, from joining the conflict and potentially sparking a regional war that could also involve Iran and nations in the Persian Gulf. Washington is also rushing weapons to Israel.
拜登(Joe Biden)政府已经向东地中海派遣了两个航母战斗群，以阻止伊朗及其支持的黎巴嫩真主党(Hezbollah)加入这场冲突以及引发一场地区战争的可能性；若爆发地区战争，伊朗和波斯湾地区的国家可能卷入其中。美国也在紧急向以色列运送武器。
“It’s a re-engagement. It turns out that our partners in the region are still heavily dependent on the security umbrella that the U.S. continues to provide,” said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington. “They still look to us as the primary security partner of choice—not at China, and certainly not at Russia. And when a crisis like this emerges, we are on the speed dial.”
“这一次是重新参与。原来，我们在该地区的合作伙伴仍然严重依赖美国继续提供的安全保护伞，”华盛顿中东研究所(Middle East Institute)高级研究员Brian Katulis说，“他们仍然把我们视为首选的安全合作伙伴，而不是中国，当然也不是俄罗斯。当出现这样的危机时，他们就会快速与我们沟通。”
Israel’s enemies were celebrating the surprising weakness displayed by the country’s military and intelligence services on Saturday. Israel’s high-tech border surveillance system around Gaza was knocked down with cheap drones, senior officers were killed at captured Israeli military bases and it took several hours for Israeli forces to start driving back Hamas—time that the Palestinian gunmen used to murder or kidnap defenseless civilians.
以色列军事和情报部门上周六暴露出的令人吃惊的弱点令该国的敌人窃喜。以色列在加沙周围设置的高科技边境监控系统被廉价的无人机破坏，以军高级军官在被占领的以色列军事基地被杀，袭击开始几个小时后以军才开始击退哈马斯，而那些巴勒斯坦枪手利用这段时间杀害或绑架了手无寸铁的平民。
“The blow of Saturday, Oct. 7, cannot be recovered from. You have brought this calamity upon yourselves,” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressed Israelis in a gloating Hebrew-language post on X, a social-media platform formerly known as Twitter. To some Arab commentators, Hamas’s success indicated that Israel could indeed be militarily defeated and that the seemingly unrealistic goal of wiping out the Israeli state isn’t that far-fetched.
伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)在社交媒体平台X上用希伯来语向以色列人发了一篇得意洋洋的帖子：“周六，10月7日，的打击是不可挽回的。这场灾难是你们自找的。”X的前身为Twitter。在一些阿拉伯评论人士看来，哈马斯的成功表明以色列在军事上的确是可能被打败的，消灭以色列国这一看似不切实际的目标也并非天方夜谭。
以色列空军在哈马斯入侵几小时后开始猛烈轰炸加沙地带，摧毁重要基础设施。图片来源：ALAA QRAIQEA/ZUMA PRESS
以色列对加沙地带发动了空袭以来，已有包括平民在内的数百名居民丧生。图片来源：ADEL HANA/ASSOCIATED PRESS
But despite Israeli officials describing Saturday’s events as the country’s Pearl Harbor, the damage to Israel’s actual military capabilities was limited. The country’s powerful air force is intact, and within hours started pummeling the Gaza Strip. Several hundred Gaza residents, including civilians, have been killed since then, according to the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health, and key infrastructure destroyed.
不过，尽管以色列官员将上周六的事件描述为该国的“珍珠港事件”，但以色列实际军力的受创程度有限。以色列强大的空军完好无损，并在数小时内开始轰炸加沙地带。哈马斯控制的卫生部称，从那时起已有包括平民在内的数百名加沙居民丧生，关键基础设施被摧毁。
“It’s clear that the Israelis have underestimated Hamas, but now Hamas, Hezbollah and all the rest of the Iranian proxies stand a great risk of underestimating Israel,” said Colin Clarke, director of research at the Soufan Group intelligence and security consulting firm. “It’s still by far the strongest military in the region, and they’re now especially motivated to seek vengeance against a number of longtime adversaries.”
“很明显，以色列人低估了哈马斯，但现在哈马斯、真主党和伊朗的其他代理人也面临着低估以色列的巨大风险，”情报与安全咨询公司Soufan Group研究总监Colin Clarke说。“以色列仍拥有该地区遥遥领先的军队，他们现在尤其有动力向一些宿敌复仇。”
On Tuesday, President Biden said he expected the Israeli response to be “swift, decisive and overwhelming”—while also upholding the laws of war. Biden also compared Hamas’s actions to the “worst rampages” of Islamic State, in language seen by many in Israel as a green light to do in Gaza what the U.S.-led coalition had done to oust Islamic State from Mosul, Iraq, and Raqqa, Syria, in 2017.
本周二，拜登表示，他希望以色列的反应是“迅速、果断和压倒性的”，同时也要遵守战争法。拜登还将哈马斯的袭击与伊斯兰国“最恶劣的暴行”相提并论，在以色列许多人看来，拜登的这番话是为以色列在加沙采取行动开绿灯，允许以方像美国领导的联军在2017年将伊斯兰国赶出伊拉克摩苏尔和叙利亚拉卡那样行事。
Both cities were heavily damaged in sustained U.S. bombing campaigns and artillery barrages that caused numerous civilian casualties. Unlike Gaza, however, Mosul and Raqqa weren’t blockaded, and many Iraqi and Syrian civilians managed to escape to safety.
这两座城市都在美国的持续轰炸和炮击中遭到严重破坏，造成大量平民伤亡。但与加沙不同的是，摩苏尔和拉卡没有被封锁，许多伊拉克和叙利亚平民设法逃到了安全地带。
Israel’s expected ground campaign to eradicate Hamas, with the potential for the high casualties inherent in urban combat, would test the degree to which Iran and Hezbollah are committed to the Palestinian group—and the Palestinian cause.
以色列为铲除哈马斯而预计开展的地面行动将考验伊朗和真主党在多大程度上致力于支持该巴勒斯坦组织以及巴勒斯坦事业；考虑到城市战固有的特点，这次地面行动可能造成大量人员伤亡。
上周六，以色列部队花了几个小时才开始驱逐哈马斯。图片来源：ILIA YEFIMOVICH/DPA/ZUMA PRESS
In past conflagrations over Gaza, Hezbollah stayed largely on the sidelines, observing the rules of mutual deterrence agreed after the 2006 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. The Lebanese group possesses an arsenal of Iranian-supplied precision missiles that could inflict significant damage to Israel’s vital infrastructure and military facilities.
在过去因加沙而起的冲突中，真主党基本上采取作壁上观的态度，遵守2006年以色列入侵黎巴嫩后达成的相互威慑规则。黎巴嫩真主党拥有伊朗提供的精密导弹，可对以色列的重要基础设施和军事设施造成重大破坏。
“At a very strategic level, Hezbollah and Iran are not very interested, as yet, to jump into this fight,” said Emile Hokayem, a senior fellow for Middle East security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “The fundamental calculus for Iran still holds: Hezbollah is such a unique and powerful instrument of its security policy that it’s not going to waste it on this war. Hezbollah is to be used and deployed when the regime in Iran, its very existence, is threatened.”
“从战略层面来看，真主党和伊朗目前还没有兴趣加入这场战斗，”国际战略研究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)中东安全高级研究员Emile Hokayem说。“伊朗的基本盘算仍然成立：真主党是伊朗安全政策中独一无二的有力工具，伊朗不会将其浪费在这场战争中。真主党将在伊朗政权、伊朗本身的存续受到威胁时被使用和部署。”
So far, Hezbollah has engaged in limited skirmishes along the border. Its fighters hit an Israeli armored personnel carrier with antitank missiles on Wednesday. Such clashes raise the risk of an unintended conflagration, said Nadav Pollak, a former analyst for the Israeli government who is now a lecturer on Middle East affairs at Reichman University in Israel.
迄今为止，真主党在边境地区进行了有限的小规模战斗。周三，真主党战士用反坦克导弹击中了一辆以色列装甲运兵车。曾任以色列政府分析师、现任以色列赖赫曼大学(Reichman University)中东事务讲师的Nadav Pollak说，这种事件增加了发生意外冲突的风险。
“Since 2006, we have never been so close to another war with Hezbollah,” he said. “If God forbid, they fire an antitank missile and kill 10-15 soldiers at the border, Israel will have to reply or even initiate a war.”
“自2006年以来，我们从未如此接近与真主党再次爆发战争，”他说。“如果他们发射一枚反坦克导弹，在边境杀死10-15名士兵，以色列将不得不作出回应，甚至发动战争，但愿不要出现这种局面。”
以色列一列战斗坦克集结在以色列北部的黎巴嫩边境附近。图片来源：JALAA MAREY/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
One significant change since 2006 is Iran’s new doctrine of the “unification of the arenas” which seeks to improve coordination and joint actions of Tehran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian proxies in Iraq and Yemen, in their confrontation with Israel. An eviction of Hamas from Gaza would be a huge blow to that doctrine—one of the reasons why Tehran may decide to expand the conflict to maintain its regional influence.
2006年以来的一个重大变化是，伊朗提出了“统一战线”的新理念，旨在加强德黑兰、哈马斯、真主党以及伊朗在伊拉克和也门的代理人在与以色列对抗中的协调和联合行动。将哈马斯驱逐出加沙将是对这一理念的巨大打击，这也是德黑兰可能决定扩大冲突以保持其地区影响力的原因之一。
“There is a very big risk that a war in Lebanon can morph into a regional conflict. I don’t think that Iran, Israel or Hezbollah want it. But they’ve locked themselves into positions where if one step is taken by one side, then the other side has to take a counter-step,” said Lebanese analyst Michael Young, a senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “There are no real clear offramps for this steady escalation toward the worst option.”
“黎巴嫩卷入战争很可能导致形势升级为地区冲突。我认为无论伊朗、以色列或真主党都不想这样。但他们已经骑虎难下：如果一方有所行动，那么另一方就必须采取反制行动，”黎巴嫩分析人士、贝鲁特的卡内基中东中心(Carnegie Middle East Center)高级编辑Michael Young说。“局面向着最坏情况不断升级，看不到解决之道。”
For now, such concerns are unlikely to deter Israel’s leadership. Hardly any voices, in the just-expanded government or in the Israeli opposition, oppose a sustained land operation to defeat Hamas. “The only game in town is getting rid of Hamas, and there is tons of political pressure to do that,” said Zonszein of the International Crisis Group. “The consensus is that Hamas cannot remain intact.”
目前，这种担忧不太可能让以色列领导层退缩。无论是刚刚扩大的政府还是反对派，以色列几乎无人反对通过持久的地面行动击败哈马斯。“现在唯一能走的路就是除掉哈马斯，而且这方面有着巨大的政治压力，”国际危机组织的Zonszein说。“大家一致认为，哈马斯要付出代价。”
Questions about who should govern Gaza’s two million people after that, and whether Israel is prepared to once again occupy the area, are for now set aside. “I don’t think anyone is thinking about the day after right now,” said Pollak. “Everyone knows one thing: Hamas has just launched the most horrible terror attacks in Israeli history, and we need to fight back, and, sorry to say, we need to kill as many of Hamas as we can.”
至于将来由谁来管理加沙的200万居民，以及以色列是否准备再次占领加沙，这些问题现在仍搁置一边。“我认为现在没人在考虑明天的问题，”Pollak说。“所有人都知道一件事：哈马斯刚刚发动了以色列历史上最可怕的恐怖袭击，我们需要反击，而且，很抱歉，我们需要尽可能多地杀死哈马斯成员。”
