- Only 52% of AmCham poll respondents positive on next few years
仅 52% 的美国商会受访者对未来几年持乐观态度 - Geopolitical tensions, China’s economy cited as major concerns
地缘政治紧张局势和中国经济是主要关注点
By Bloomberg News 2023年9月19日
American firms in China are the gloomiest they’ve been in decades about the prospect of doing business in the Asian nation over the next few years as geopolitical tensions and the slowing economy hurt sentiment.
由于地缘政治紧张局势和经济放缓影响了人们的情绪，在华美国企业对未来几年在这个亚洲国家开展业务的前景感到几十年来最悲观。
Just 52% of respondents to a poll by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai said they were at least slightly optimistic about the business outlook in China over the next five years. That’s three percentage points less than in 2022 and the lowest since the chamber began surveying members in 1999.
在上海美国商会的一项民意调查中，仅有52%的受访者表示，他们对未来五年中国的商业前景至少略微乐观。这一比例比 2022 年下降了三个百分点，也是该商会自 1999 年开始对会员进行调查以来的最低值。
“Concerns about geopolitics, US-China relations and China’s poor economy are all weighing on expectations,” AmCham Shanghai wrote in a report about the survey results published Tuesday. The authors added that more companies described their outlook as “slightly pessimistic” or worse in this poll than they did during the US-China trade war in 2019.
"对地缘政治、中美关系和中国经济不景气的担忧都对预期产生了影响，"上海美国商会在周二发布的一份有关调查结果的报告中写道。报告作者补充说，与2019年中美贸易战期间相比，此次调查中有更多公司将其前景描述为 "略微悲观 "或更差。
American Companies Have Gloomier Outlook on China 美国公司对中国前景更加悲观
A record share of US firms surveyed are pessimistic about next few years
接受调查的美国公司中，对未来几年持悲观态度的比例创历史新高
Source: AmCham Shanghai's 2023 China Business Report
来源：上海美国商会上海美国商会《2023 中国商业报告
Note: AmCham survey received 325 responses between May 31 and June 30. Question asked was: "How would you describe your five-year business outlook in China?"
注：5 月 31 日至 6 月 30 日期间，美国商会调查共收到 325 份回复。问题是"您如何描述您在中国的五年商业前景？
The survey of more than 300 respondents conducted in June paints a troubling picture of the state of US corporate sentiment about China, even after the nation’s pandemic controls were lifted.
这项于 6 月份对 300 多名受访者进行的调查描绘了一幅令人担忧的图景：即使在中国解除大流行病控制之后，美国企业对中国的情绪仍是如此。
The country’s top leaders have stressed a commitment to “opening up” and welcoming foreign investment this year. But US-China strains, data security rules, and concern about Chinese actions targeting American and other overseas firms have rattled companies.
今年，中国最高领导人强调了 "开放 "和欢迎外国投资的承诺。但美中关系紧张、数据安全规则以及对中国针对美国和其他海外公司的行动的担忧，都令企业感到不安。
Some foreign business leaders have warned about a prolonged sense of promise fatigue as skepticism mounts about whether the government will offer meaningful policy support.
一些外国商界领袖警告说，由于对政府是否会提供有意义的政策支持持怀疑态度的人越来越多，因此会出现长期的 "承诺疲劳"。
US-China relations have been a considerable pain point for American companies. Nearly a fifth of the survey respondents said they’re considering moving some of their current operations out of the world’s second-largest economy over the next few years.
中美关系一直是美国公司的一大痛点。近五分之一的受访者表示，他们正考虑在未来几年内将部分现有业务迁出这个世界第二大经济体。
Uncertainty about ties between Washington and Beijing was cited as the No. 1 reason. Those redirecting investment away from China — or who are planning to — cited Southeast Asia, the US and Mexico as potential destinations.
华盛顿与北京之间关系的不确定性被列为第一大原因。那些将投资方向从中国转向其他国家的企业--或计划将投资方向从中国转向其他国家的企业--将东南亚、美国和墨西哥作为潜在的投资目的地。
Weaker profits may also make it more difficult for companies to justify the geopolitical risks and regulatory hurdles of going big in China. Only 68% of survey respondents said they were profitable in 2022 — another record low — given the lengthy, widespread Covid-19 controls that hampered operations.
利润下降也可能使企业更难证明在中国大举发展所面临的地缘政治风险和监管障碍是合理的。只有68%的受访企业表示2022年将实现盈利，再创历史新低，因为漫长而普遍的 "Covid-19 "管制措施阻碍了企业的运营。
American Companies in China Aren't as Profitable 在华美国公司利润不高
Share of US firms that saw profitability in 2022 hit a record low
2022 年实现盈利的美国公司比例创历史新低
Source: AmCham Shanghai's 2023 China Business Report
来源：上海美国商会上海美国商会《2023 中国商业报告
Even after the nation’s reopening, expectations for future profitability are relatively muted. Only 40% of survey respondents expect revenue growth to outpace global growth in the next three-to-five years.
即使在国家重新开放之后，对未来盈利能力的预期也相对较低。只有 40% 的受访者预计未来三到五年的收入增长将超过全球增长速度。
There were some bright spots. About a third of respondents said they plan to increase investment in China this year, a bit more than said they would last year. China’s market growth potential and the end of Covid curbs were the top reasons.
也有一些亮点。约有三分之一的受访者表示，他们计划今年增加在中国的投资，这一比例略高于去年。中国市场的增长潜力和科威德限制政策的结束是最主要的原因。
Recent moves by the Chinese government have also been favorable to foreign businesses, according to AmCham Shanghai. The organization cited the extension of preferential tax policies for foreigners and the State Council’s 24-point plan to promote greater foreign investment as positive signs.
据上海美国商会称，中国政府近期的举措也对外国企业有利。上海美国商会认为，扩大对外商的税收优惠政策和国务院促进外商投资的24点计划都是积极的信号。
Chinese leaders have reiterated their support in recent days. People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said Monday at a symposium attended by representatives from top foreign companies, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., HSBC Holdings Plc., Deutsche Bank AG, BNP Paribas, UBS Group AG and Tesla Inc., that the central bank would improve the business environment for overseas firms.
最近几天，中国领导人重申了他们的支持。中国人民银行行长潘功胜周一在一个有摩根大通、汇丰控股、德意志银行、法国巴黎银行、瑞银集团和特斯拉公司等顶级外企代表参加的座谈会上表示，中国央行将改善海外企业的营商环境。
“We’ve seen some really good progress over the last several months in US-China relations,” said Sean Stein, chairman of AmCham Shanghai. He cited the recent visit of US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo as an event that’s “putting a floor” under ties.
"上海美国商会主席肖恩-斯坦恩（Sean Stein）说："在过去几个月里，我们看到中美关系取得了一些非常好的进展。他举例说，美国商务部长吉娜-雷蒙多（Gina Raimondo）最近的来访为中美关系 "铺平了道路"。
“That is something potentially could help our optimism and pessimism numbers going forward,” he said, “because that’s the biggest issue.”
"这有可能有助于我们未来的乐观和悲观数字，"他说，"因为这是最大的问题。
