Few companies are safe if Apple isn’t immune to China retaliation.
如果这家iPhone生产商都不能幸免于中国的报复，那么几乎没有哪家公司是安全的。
上海苹果旗舰店外的iPhone 14 Pro机型广告。图片来源：CFOTO/ZUMA PRESS
Dan Gallagher 2023年9月8日15:20 CST 更新
Apple might be the king of tech. But in the growing cold economic war between the world’s two biggest economies, it is becoming just another game piece—albeit a big one.
苹果公司(Apple, AAPL)或许在科技界称王，但在中美这两个全球最大经济体之间愈演愈烈的经济冷战中，该公司正成为又一枚棋子，不过是一枚拥有举足轻重地位的棋子。
Still the world’s largest public company by market value, Apple has seen that value take a notable hit this week on increasing signs that its business in China might be coming under threat.
苹果公司仍是全球市值最大的上市公司，但本周有越来越多的迹象表明，该公司在华业务可能正面临威胁，使其市值受到明显打击。
The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the Chinese government is banning the iPhone and other foreign-branded devices from use by workers at central government agencies. Bloomberg reported Thursday that such a ban might also be extended to state-owned enterprises and other government-backed entities. That could amount to a significant swath of people in a state-led economy with a population totaling more than 1.4 billion.
《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)周三报道称，中国政府禁止中央政府机关工作人员使用iPhone及其他外国品牌的设备。彭博(Bloomberg)周四报道称，这一禁令还可能扩大到国有企业及其他有政府背景的实体。在中国这样一个总人口超过14亿、由国家主导的经济体中，此举可能影响到相当大一部分消费群体。
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, about 56.3 million urban workers were employed by “state-owned units” in 2021. Those jobs commanded an average wage about 8% above the national urban average—an attractive segment for a company specializing in premium devices. And because Apple now ships roughly 230 million iPhones globally every year, 56 million would be a notable chunk to take out of the pool of potential buyers—especially in a mature global smartphone market with low growth prospects.
根据中国国家统计局的数据，2021年，约有5,630万城镇职工受雇于国有单位。当时这些岗位的平均工资比全国城镇平均工资高出约8%，这对一家专门生产高端设备的公司来说是一个极具吸引力的细分市场。目前苹果公司每年在全球的iPhone出货量约2.3亿部，如果从其潜在买家群体中剔除5,600万将是一个不小的数字，特别是在全球智能手机市场已经成熟、未来增长前景并不高的情况下。
On top of that, Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies has launched a new smartphone reportedly delivering 5G-like speed, despite a U.S. ban on the type of advanced chips typically necessary for such devices. The new device called the Mate 60 Pro sold out within hours and has already amassed back-orders. It also conveniently launched just ahead of Apple’s expected unveiling of this year’s iPhone lineup at an event scheduled for next week.
苹果公司可能面临的麻烦不止于此，中国科技巨头华为(Huawei Technologies)推出了一款据称网速达到5G标准的新智能手机，尽管美国禁止向华为供应这类设备通常需要的先进制程芯片。这款名为Mate 60 Pro的新手机在几小时内就销售一空，并且已接获大量订单。另外，这款新产品的推出恰好赶在苹果公司计划于下周发布今年的iPhone系列产品之前。
Apple’s stock price has thus slumped nearly 7% over the past two days, costing the company about $194 billion in market value. That might seem excessive considering the many unknowns about the reported iPhone bans and how they could ultimately play out. Also, China has at least some interest in not overly harming a major local employer during a time of growing unemployment. One Chinese city alone reportedly has more than one million workers building Apple products or employed in related jobs.
在这些压力下，苹果公司股价过去两个交易日下跌了近7%，市值损失约1,940亿美元。考虑到上述禁用iPhone传闻及其最终可能带来多大影响仍有很多未知数，市场这一反应似乎有些过头。而且，在失业人数上升的背景下，避免过度伤害这样一个国内就业创造大户至少在一定程度上符合中国的利益。据报道，仅中国的一个城市就有100多万人在苹果公司的产品生产线上或相关岗位工作。
But Apple’s stock price has been on a strong run, rising 46% for the year ahead of this week’s news. That had put the shares near 30-times forward earnings, a historically high multiple for a cyclical, hardware-focused business. The shares were actually exceeding Wall Street’s median price target for the first time in 18 months just ahead of the company’s latest quarterly results in early August, according to FactSet.
但苹果公司的股价已高歌猛进，在本周的消息出炉前，该股今年以来累计上涨46%。其预期市盈率由此接近30倍，对一家周期性强、侧重硬件的企业来说，这是处于历史性高位的估值。据FactSet慧甚的数据，实际上，就在苹果公司于8月初发布上一财季业绩前，其股价18个月以来首次超过了华尔街的目标价中值。
The recent developments are also just the latest challenge Apple has faced in the country that now serves as its third-largest geographical segment, accounting for 19% of the company’s total revenue in the 12-month period ending in June.
上述近期动向也正是苹果公司在中国已经面临的最新挑战。中国目前是苹果公司的第三大地理市场，在截至6月份的12个月里，来自中国的收入占该公司总收入的19%。
Apple’s sales in its Greater China segment also generated pretax operating margins that were 12 percentage points higher than the company’s total during its most recent fiscal year. Covid-19 restrictions and social unrest crimped production of iPhone Pro models in China last year, resulting in delayed shipments during a key sales period. Apple is trying to diversify its manufacturing footprint, with the company now building devices in countries such as India and Vietnam.
此外，在2022财年，苹果公司大中华区销售所产生的税前营业利润率比该公司总体税前营业利润率高出12个百分点。去年，抗疫限制措施和社会动荡拖累了iPhone Pro机型在中国的生产，导致一个关键销售时期的出货延迟。苹果公司正试图推动其生产地点多样化，目前正在印度和越南等国家生产设备。
But China is still the company’s largest manufacturing base by far. And the iPhone is still Apple’s largest business, accounting for 52% of revenue. That ironically makes Apple a relatively easy target in the economic war between the U.S. and China. The U.S. has enacted severe restrictions on shipments of advanced chips and related technology to China, which has in turn responded by imposing its own restrictions on U.S. businesses such as memory-chip maker Micron.
但中国仍是苹果公司最大的生产基地，规模远超其他市场。而iPhone仍是苹果公司最大的业务，占该公司总收入的52%。具有讽刺意味的是，这也使苹果公司成为中美经济战中一个相对容易被针对的目标。美国对先进制程芯片和相关技术的对华出口实施了严格限制，中国也因此对存储芯片制造商美光科技公司(Micron, MU)等多家美国企业实施了限制。
China has also deployed other creative punishments for U.S. firms, such as withholding approval on major mergers and acquisitions, throwing a wrench into growth plans for major U.S. semiconductor companies such as Qualcomm, Intel and Applied Materials.
中国还对美国公司采取了另一些别出心裁的惩罚措施，如不批准重大并购交易，打乱了高通公司(Qualcomm, QCOM)、英特尔公司(Intel, INTC)和应用材料(Applied Materials, AMAT)等美国大型半导体公司的增长计划。
Throwing a rock at Apple also creates major ripples across the tech pond. The company is one of the world’s largest buyers of chips for its devices, so the PHLX Semiconductor Index slipped 2% Thursday while companies such as Qorvo and Skyworks, which supply key radio-frequency chips used in the iPhone, slid more than 7% each. And companies such as HP and Dell—U.S. personal-computer makers that also have major manufacturing facilities in China—each saw their shares fall more than 2%.
拿苹果公司当靶子也会在整个科技行业掀起轩然大波。由于旗下产品设备需要芯片，苹果公司是全球芯片的主要买家，所以上述关于该公司的不利消息导致费城半导体指数周四应声下跌2%，iPhone关键射频芯片的供应商Qorvo (QRVO)和思佳讯(Skyworks, SWKS)等公司的股价均下跌7%以上。惠普(HP, HPQ)和戴尔科技集团(Dell, DELL)等也在中国有大型生产基地的美国个人电脑制造商的股价均下跌超过2%。
If Apple can’t dodge the bullets between the U.S. and China, who really can?
如果苹果公司都躲不开中美之间的子弹，又有谁真能躲开呢？
注：中文译文更新较英文原文有所延迟，因而中英对照版本有可能出现部分不一致的情况。
