• Bloomberg Economics projects growth slowing to near 1% by 2050
  彭博经济预测，到 2050 年，经济增长将放缓至 1%附近
• Property slump and battered confidence are proving hard to fix
  事实证明，房地产低迷和信心受挫难以挽回

By Jasmine Ng 作者：Jasmine Ng 2023年9月5日

China is no longer set to eclipse the US as the world’s biggest economy soon, and it may never consistently pull ahead to claim the top spot as the nation’s confidence slump becomes more entrenched.
中国不再会很快取代美国成为全球最大的经济体，而且随着中国信心下滑的趋势愈发严重，中国可能永远不会一直保持领先地位。

That’s according to Bloomberg Economics, which now forecasts it will take until the mid-2040s for China’s gross domestic product to exceed that of the US — and even then, it will happen by “only a small margin” before “falling back behind.” Before the pandemic, they expected China to take and hold pole position as early as the start of next decade.
彭博经济公司现在预测，中国的国内生产总值要到 2040 年代中期才能超过美国，即使到那时，"也只能以很小的差距 "超过美国，然后 "掉队"。在疫情发生之前，他们预计中国最早将在下个十年初占据并保持领先地位。

“China is down-shifting onto a slower growth path sooner than we expected,” the Bloomberg Economists wrote in a Tuesday research note. “The post-Covid rebound has run out of steam, reflecting a deepening property slump and fading confidence in Beijing’s management of the economy. Weak confidence risks becoming entrenched — resulting in an enduring drag on growth potential.”
"彭博经济学家们在周二的一份研究报告中写道："中国经济正比我们预期的更快地步入增长放缓的轨道。"科维德事件后的反弹已经失去了动力，这反映出房地产市场的不景气正在加深，以及人们对中国政府管理经济的信心正在减弱。信心不足有可能变得根深蒂固--导致增长潜力受到持久拖累。

China's Long-term Economic Outlook Weakens

中国经济长期前景趋弱

Bloomberg Economics sees GDP growth slowing more than previously thought.

彭博经济学认为国内生产总值增长放缓的程度超过此前预期。

The economists now see growth in China’s economy — the world’s second largest — slowing to 3.5% in 2030 and to near 1% by 2050. That’s lower than prior projections of 4.3% and 1.6%, respectively.
经济学家们现在认为，中国--世界第二大经济体--的经济增长在 2030 年将放缓至 3.5%，到 2050 年将接近 1%。这分别低于此前预测的 4.3% 和 1.6%。

China’s economy expanded 3% last year, one of its slowest rates of growth in decades as pandemic controls and a property crisis battered the country. Its eventual reopening provided hope the economy would bounce back this year.
中国经济去年增长了 3%，是几十年来增长速度最慢的国家之一，因为大流行病控制和房地产危机使中国遭受重创。最终的重新开放为今年的经济反弹带来了希望。

But the recovery has lost steam as exports tumble and the real-estate slump deepens. A private gauge of the services sector showed activity easing last month as people held back from spending. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg have also been downgrading their growth forecasts for 2024 further below 5%.
但是，随着出口下滑和房地产低迷的加深，经济复苏已经失去了动力。一项针对服务业的私人调查显示，上个月服务业活动有所放缓，原因是人们缩减了开支。接受彭博社调查的经济学家还将 2024 年的经济增长预测进一步下调至 5%以下。

Read more: New Forecast Says GDP May Never Hold No. 1 Spot
更多信息新预测称 GDP 可能永远无法稳坐第一把交椅

The revised outlook comes as the world reconsiders how to work with a China that may be approaching a peak in power, even if it’s not in decline.
世界正在重新考虑如何与一个即使没有衰落，但实力也可能接近顶峰的中国合作。

The US and Group of Seven nations are increasingly looking at evidence of deep-seated structural problems in China, seeing opportunities that ultimately will strengthen the West’s hand against a weakening geopolitical competitor while also considering ripple effects from the slowdown. This year’s snags already are roiling commodities and stocks.
美国和七国集团正越来越多地关注中国深层次结构性问题的证据，看到了最终将加强西方对抗日益衰弱的地缘政治竞争对手的机会，同时也在考虑经济放缓带来的连锁反应。今年的障碍已经在商品和股票市场上肆虐。

Chinese Trade Is Critically Important For The World

中国贸易对世界至关重要

It's the top export destination for almost 40 economies

它是近 40 个经济体的首要出口目的地

The country is also contending with deeper, longer-term challenges. China clocked its first population drop last year since the 1960s, raising concerns about weakening productivity. Regulatory crackdowns have also hit confidence, as have geopolitical tensions with the US and other Western governments.
中国还面临着更深层次、更长期的挑战。去年，中国人口出现了自 20 世纪 60 年代以来的首次下降，这引发了人们对生产力减弱的担忧。监管打击也打击了信心，与美国和其他西方国家政府的地缘政治紧张关系也是如此。

By contrast, the US appears to be in better shape than what many economists predicted just a few months ago. A strong labor market, sturdy consumer spending and moderating inflation have fueled confidence in the economy’s ability to avoid a recession for now.
相比之下，美国的情况似乎比许多经济学家几个月前预测的要好。强劲的劳动力市场、旺盛的消费支出和缓和的通货膨胀增强了人们对美国经济暂时避免衰退的信心。

Bloomberg Economics estimates potential US growth at 1.7% in 2022-2023, with long-term forecasts showing a gradual drifting down to 1.5% by 2050.
彭博经济公司预计，2022-2023 年美国的潜在增长率为 1.7%，长期预测显示，到 2050 年将逐步降至 1.5%。

Bloomberg’s economists said optimism for China’s growth in the medium-term remains grounded in the “enormous size of the economy, significant space to catch up to global technology leaders and the development focus of the government.” But they noted those drivers are “operating with diminished force.”
彭博社的经济学家们表示，对中国的中期增长持乐观态度的基础仍然是 "巨大的经济规模、追赶全球技术领先者的巨大空间以及政府的发展重点"。但他们指出，这些驱动因素的 "作用力正在减弱"。