Shipping containers in China’s Jiangsu Province. The economic slowdown in recent months is sounding alarm bells across the world.中国江苏省的集装箱。近几个月的经济放缓给世界各地敲响了警钟。

By Bloomberg News 2023年9月1日 at GMT+8 13:33

If I had to use one word to describe the current situation, it would be fragile. The economic data we’ve gotten over the past few months have largely painted a gloomy picture. Chinese households are spending less than expected and saving more instead. Businesses are borrowing and investing at a reduced pace. And while the overall jobs situation has been stable, unemployment among the country’s youth has jumped so much that Beijing decided to stop releasing the data.

如果要用一个词来形容现在的情况，那就是脆弱。过去几个月我们获得的经济数据在很大程度上描绘了一幅悲观的景象。中国家庭的支出低于预期，储蓄却增加。企业借贷和投资的速度有所放缓。尽管整体就业形势稳定，但该国年轻人的失业率大幅上升，以至于北京决定停止发布数据。

As downbeat as all that is, it is important to note the economy is not crashing. Economists are still expecting Chinese gross domestic product to grow 5.1% this year, 4.5% next year and 4.6% in 2025. By comparison, the US is forecast to grow 2% this year, 0.9% next year and 1.9% in 2025.

尽管一切都很悲观，但重要的是要注意经济并没有崩溃。经济学家仍预计中国国内生产总值今年将增长5.1%，明年将增长4.5%，2025年将增长4.6%。相比之下，美国预计今年将增长2%，明年将增长0.9%，2025年将增长1.9%。

China's Slowing Growth Trend中国增长放缓的趋势

Economy faces sub-5% expansion for three straight years if forecasts pan out

如果预测成功，经济将面临连续三年低于 5% 的扩张

Sources: Bloomberg, National Bureau of Statistics, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

资料来源：彭博社、国家统计局、摩根大通公司

So, what’s the big deal?

那么，有什么大不了的呢？

Let’s take the longer view. In the first 19 years of this century — up to right before the pandemic hit — the American economy grew on average about 2% each year. That means expected growth for the US is still where it’s been for the past two decades.

China’s trajectory tells a different story. The economy expanded on average 9% a year from 2000 to 2019. Now China’s growth seems to be slowing to about half that pace. With a medley of challenges on the horizon ranging from enormous levels of debt to a rapidly aging population, that rate could drop off even more.

让我们把目光放得长远一些。本世纪头 19 年——直到疫情爆发之前——美国经济平均每年增长约 2%。这意味着美国的预期增长仍处于过去二十年的水平。 中国的轨迹讲述了一个不同的故事。从2000年到2019年，经济平均每年增长9%。现在中国的增长速度似乎正在放缓至这一速度的一半左右。由于面临从巨额债务到人口迅速老龄化等一系列挑战，这一比率可能会进一步下降。

A major slowdown in China raises a lot of questions for the global economy and would have consequences for everyone who benefits from Chinese consumer and manufacturing demand. Will Boeing need to make so many jets? Should French wineries plant so many acres? Do Australian miners need that much equipment?

中国经济大幅放缓给全球经济带来了许多问题，并将对所有受益于中国消费和制造业需求的人产生影响。波音需要制造这么多飞机吗？法国酒庄应该种植这么多英亩土地吗？澳大利亚矿工需要那么多设备吗？

China's Great Slowdown

There are also going to be implications on the geopolitical front. An economy that grows more slowly also produces more modest increases in tax revenue. That means President Xi Jinping’s government may have some tough choices when it comes to subsidizing technological development, spreading largesse around the developing world and buying weapons that shift the balance of power in the Pacific.

这也会对地缘政治方面产生影响。经济增长越慢，税收收入的增长也就越温和。这意味着习近平主席的政府在补贴技术发展、向发展中国家提供慷慨援助以及购买改变太平洋地区力量平衡的武器方面可能会面临一些艰难的选择。

Things could change. Beijing could have the perfect policy response for the problems that ail China’s economy and stabilize growth at a relatively robust pace. Or the government could end up making some ill-advised decisions that make things worse.

To get the best sense of where China’s economy is headed, and what it might mean for the rest of the world, here are the five things you should be paying attention to and the stories that will help you understand them.

事情可能会改变。北京可以对困扰中国经济的问题采取完美的政策应对，并以相对强劲的速度稳定增长。或者政府最终可能会做出一些不明智的决定，使事情变得更糟。 为了最好地了解中国经济的发展方向，以及它对世界其他地区可能意味着什么，以下是您应该注意的五件事以及有助于您理解它们的故事。

Property Market房地产市场

The biggest drag on China’s economy right now is the country’s depressed real estate market. Home prices are falling, developers are defaulting and people are angry. Beijing has been trying to steady the sector by cutting interest rates and making sure builders can get access to financing, but nothing has been able to turn the tide just yet.

目前中国经济最大的拖累是低迷的房地产市场。房价下跌，开发商违约，人们感到愤怒。北京一直试图通过降低利率和确保建筑商获得融资来稳定该行业，但目前还没有什么能够扭转局势。

New Home Prices in China中国的新房价格

Month-over-month change in new residential real estate prices

新建住宅房地产价格环比变化

Source: National Bureau of Statistics 70-city averages compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence Excludes state-subsidized housing.

国家统计局 彭博资讯整理的 70 个城市平均值.不包括国家补贴住房。

Policy Support 政策支持

Financial markets have been hoping Xi will pull out the policy “bazooka” to combat the slowdown. What they’ve gotten instead is a steady stream of incremental measures that have largely disappointed. That reticence may reflect a confidence among policymakers that the economy is strong enough to persist through the current headwinds. It might also betray a worry that today’s cure will sow the start of tomorrow’s disease.

金融市场一直希望习近平能够拿出政策“火箭筒”来应对经济放缓。相反，他们得到的是源源不断的增量措施，但基本上令人失望。这种沉默可能反映了政策制定者的信心，即经济足够强劲，能够度过当前的逆风。它还可能暴露出一种担忧，即今天的治疗方法将为明天的疾病埋下种子。

Local Debt地方债务

In the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008, China opened the stimulus floodgates to keep its economy afloat. It worked. Not only did China make it through the financial crisis relatively unscathed, it also became the main engine for global growth. But it came at a cost: Local governments that began borrowing during the crisis to build infrastructure kept doing so until they’d racked up some $9 trillion of off-balance-sheet debt. As slower economic growth and a miserable property market sap tax revenues now, it’s not clear how that money will be paid back.

2008年雷曼兄弟倒闭后，中国打开了刺激措施的闸门以保持经济发展。这是有效的。中国不仅相对毫发无伤地度过了金融危机，而且还成为全球经济增长的主要引擎。但这是有代价的：在危机期间开始举债建设基础设施的地方政府一直这样做，直到它们积累了约 9 万亿美元的表外债务。由于经济增长放缓和房地产市场低迷导致税收收入减少，目前尚不清楚这笔钱将如何偿还。

Rising Financial Stress For China LGFVs中国地方政府融资平台的财务压力日益加大

More vehicles are missing payments on short-term debt 更多车辆未能偿还短期债务

Source: Huaan Securities Co.华安证券

Economic Targets 经济目标

Every March in Beijing, China’s premier stands in front of the National People’s Congress and gives the government an annual target for economic growth. It’s as public a benchmark of official performance as you get in the country. The only time they missed the target by a substantial margin was last year, when Covid lockdowns dragged on growth. If we see a slip this year below the expansion target of about about 5%, there will be a lot of motivation for policymakers to do more.

每年三月，中国总理都会在北京出席全国人民代表大会，向政府提出年度经济增长目标。这是该国公开的官方表现基准。他们唯一一次大幅未能实现目标是去年，当时新冠疫情封锁拖累了经济增长。如果今年经济增速低于 5% 左右的扩张目标，政策制定者将有很大动力采取更多行动。

Economists Trim China Forecasts 经济学家下调中国预测

Outlook darkens as data for second-largest economy flashes warning signs 第二大经济体数据闪现警告信号，前景黯淡

Source: Bloomberg survey 彭博社调查

Global Response全球反应

There is wide range of opinion on whether China’s economic ascendance has been positive or negative for the world. But just about everyone would agree that the world has been indelibly changed as a result. China is now a cornerstone of the global economy and one so big that its wobbles elicit concern in capitals around the globe.

对于中国经济的崛起对世界来说是积极还是消极，存在着广泛的看法。但几乎每个人都会同意，世界因此而发生了不可磨灭的改变。中国现在是全球经济的基石，其规模如此之大，其动摇引起了全球各国首都的担忧。