Its ills are different from 1999. But another stiff dose of reform is still needed
它的弊病与 1999 年不同。但仍需要另一次严厉的改革

Aug 17th 20232023 年 8 月 17 日 经济学人

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Nearly twenty-five years ago this newspaper called Germany the sick man of the euro. The combination of reunification, a sclerotic job market and slowing export demand all plagued the economy, forcing unemployment into double digits. Then a series of reforms in the early 2000s ushered in a golden age. Germany became the envy of its peers. Not only did the trains run on time but, with its world-beating engineering, the country also stood out as an exporting powerhouse. However, while Germany has prospered, the world has kept on turning. As a result, Germany has once again started to fall behind.

二十五年前，该报称德国为欧元病夫。统一、就业市场僵化和出口需求放缓共同困扰着经济，迫使失业率达到两位数。随后2000年代初的一系列改革迎来了黄金时代。德国成为同行羡慕的对象。火车不仅准时运行，而且凭借其世界一流的工程技术，该国也成为出口大国。然而，在德国繁荣的同时，世界却在不断变化。结果，德国再次开始落后。

Europe’s biggest economy has gone from a growth leader to a laggard. Between 2006 and 2017 it outperformed its large counterparts and kept pace with America. Yet today it has just experienced its third quarter of contraction or stagnation and may end up being the only big economy to shrink in 2023. The problems lie not only in the here and now. According to the imf, Germany will grow more slowly than America, Britain, France and Spain over the next five years, too.

欧洲最大的经济体已经从增长领先者变成了落后者。 2006年至2017年间，它的表现超越了大型同行，并与美国并驾齐驱。然而如今，它刚刚经历了第三季度的收缩或停滞，最终可能成为 2023 年唯一出现萎缩的大型经济体。问题不仅仅在于此时此地。国际货币基金组织表示，未来五年德国的经济增长速度也将低于美国、英国、法国和西班牙。

To be sure, things are not as alarming as they were in 1999. Unemployment today is around 3%; the country is richer and more open. But Germans increasingly complain that their country is not working as well as it should. Four out of five tell pollsters that Germany is not a fair place to live. Trains now run so serially behind the clock that Switzerland has barred late ones from its network. After being stranded abroad for the second time this summer as her ageing official plane malfunctioned, Annalena Baerbock, the foreign minister, has aborted a trip to Australia.

可以肯定的是，情况并不像 1999 年那样令人担忧。今天的失业率约为 3%；这个国家更加富裕，更加开放。但德国人越来越多地抱怨他们的国家没有发挥应有的作用。五分之四的人告诉民意调查者，德国不是一个公平的居住地。现在火车连续运行，以至于瑞士禁止迟到的火车进入其网络。今年夏天，外交部长安娜莱娜·贝尔博克(Annalena Baerbock)因老化的公务飞机故障而第二次滞留在国外，之后她取消了澳大利亚之行。

For years Germany’s outperformance in old industries papered over its lack of investment in new ones. Complacency and an obsession with fiscal prudence led to too little public investment, and not just in Deutsche Bahn and the Bundeswehr. Overall, the country’s investment in information technology as a share of gdp is less than half that in America and France. Bureaucratic conservatism also gets in the way. Obtaining a licence to operate a business takes 120 days—twice as long as the oecd average. Added to this are worsening geopolitics, the difficulty of eliminating carbon emissions and the travails of an ageing population.

多年来，德国在老工业领域的优异表现掩盖了其对新工业投资的缺乏。自满和对财政审慎的痴迷导致公共投资太少，不仅仅是德国铁路和德国联邦国防军。总体而言，该国信息技术投资占GDP的比重不到美国和法国的一半。官僚保守主义也成为障碍。获得经营企业许可证需要 120 天，是经合组织平均时间的两倍。除此之外，还有不断恶化的地缘政治、消除碳排放的难度以及人口老龄化带来的痛苦。

The geopolitics mean that manufacturing may no longer be the cash cow it used to be. Of all the large Western economies, Germany is the most exposed to China. Last year trade between the two amounted to $314bn. That relationship was once governed by the profit motive; now things are more complicated. In China German carmakers are losing the battle for market share against home-grown competitors. And in more sensitive areas, as the West “de-risks” its ties with China, some may be severed altogether. Meanwhile, a scramble for advanced manufacturing and robust supply chains is unleashing a torrent of subsidies to foster home-grown industry that will either threaten German firms or demand subsidies inside the European Union.

地缘政治意味着制造业可能不再是以前的摇钱树。在所有西方大型经济体中，德国对中国的敞口最大。去年两国之间的贸易额达3140亿美元。这种关系曾经是受利润动机支配的。现在事情变得更加复杂了。在中国，德国汽车制造商正在与本土竞争对手争夺市场份额。在更敏感的领域，随着西方“降低”与中国关系的风险，一些领域可能会被完全切断。与此同时，对先进制造业和强大供应链的争夺正在释放大量补贴，以培育本土产业，这要么威胁德国企业，要么要求欧盟内部提供补贴。

Another difficulty comes from the energy transition. Germany’s industrial sector uses nearly twice as much energy as the next-biggest in Europe, and its consumers have a much bigger carbon footprint than those in France or Italy. Cheap Russian gas is no longer an option and the country has, in a spectacular own goal, turned away from nuclear power (see Europe section). A lack of investment in grids and a sluggardly permit system are hobbling the transition to cheap renewable energy, threatening to make manufacturers less competitive.

另一个困难来自能源转型。德国工业部门消耗的能源几乎是欧洲第二大工业部门的两倍，其消费者的碳足迹比法国或意大利的消费者大得多。廉价的俄罗斯天然气不再是一种选择，该国已经以一个惊人的目标放弃了核电（见欧洲部分）。缺乏对电网的投资和缓慢的许可制度正在阻碍向廉价可再生能源的过渡，并有可能降低制造商的竞争力。

Increasingly, too, Germany lacks the talent it needs. A baby boom after the second world war means that 2m workers, on net, will retire over the next five years. Although the country has attracted almost 1.1m Ukrainian refugees, many are children and non-working women who may soon return home. Already, two-fifths of employers say they are struggling to find skilled workers. That is not just grumbling: the state of Berlin cannot fill even half of its teaching vacancies with qualified staff.

德国也越来越缺乏所需的人才。第二次世界大战后的婴儿潮意味着 200 万工人将在未来五年内退休。尽管该国吸引了近 110 万乌克兰难民，但其中许多是可能很快就会返回家园的儿童和非工作妇女。五分之二的雇主表示，他们正在努力寻找技术工人。这不仅仅是抱怨：柏林州甚至无法用合格的员工填补一半的教学空缺。

For Germany to thrive in a more fragmented, greener and ageing world, its economic model will need to adapt. Yet whereas high unemployment forced Gerhard Schröder’s coalition into action in the 1990s, the alarm bells are easier to ignore this time. Few in today’s government, made up of the Social Democrats, the liberal Free Democrats and the Greens, admit to the scale of the task. Even if they did, the coalition is so fractious that the parties would struggle to agree on a remedy. Moreover, Alternative für Deutschland, a far-right populist party, is polling at 20% nationally and may win some state elections next year. Few in government will propose radical change for fear of playing into its hands.

德国要想在更加分散、更加绿色和老龄化的世界中蓬勃发展，其经济模式需要进行调整。然而，尽管高失业率迫使格哈德·施罗德的联盟在 20 世纪 90 年代采取行动，但这一次的警钟更容易被忽视。今天的政府由社会民主党、自由民主党和绿党组成，很少有人承认这项任务的规模。即使他们这样做了，联盟也非常暴躁，以至于各方很难就补救措施达成一致。此外，极右翼民粹主义政党“德国另类选择党”在全国的民意支持率为 20%，可能会赢得明年的一些州选举。政府中很少有人会提出激进的改革，因为担心会落入自己的手中。

The temptation may therefore be to stick with the old ways of doing things. But that would not bring back Germany’s heyday. Nor would it quell the onrush of challenges to the status quo. China will continue to develop and compete, and de-risking, decarbonisation and demography cannot simply be wished away.

因此，坚持旧的做事方式可能是一种诱惑。但这并不能带回德国的全盛时期。它也无法平息对现状的挑战。中国将继续发展和竞争，去风险、脱碳和人口结构不能简单地凭空消失。

Instead of running scared, politicians must look ahead, by fostering new firms, infrastructure and talent. Embracing technology would be a gift to new firms and industries. A digitised bureaucracy would do wonders for smaller firms that lack the capacity to fill out reams of paperwork. Further permit reform would help ensure that infrastructure gets built speedily and to budget. Money also matters. Too often infrastructure has suffered as the government has made a fetish of its balanced-budget rules. Although Germany cannot spend as freely as it might have in the 2010s, when interest rates were low, forgoing investment as a way of reining in excess spending is a false economy.

政客们不应惊慌失措，而必须向前看，培育新企业、基础设施和人才。拥抱技术将是给新公司和新行业的礼物。数字化的官僚机构将为那些缺乏填写大量文书工作能力的小公司创造奇迹。进一步的许可证改革将有助于确保基础设施的快速建设并符合预算。钱也很重要。由于政府过于迷恋平衡预算规则，基础设施常常受到影响。尽管德国无法像2010年代利率较低时那样自由支出，但通过放弃投资来控制过度支出是一种虚假经济。

Agenda 20302030 年议程

Just as important will be attracting new talent. Germany has liberalised its immigration rules, but the visa process is still glacial and Germany is better at welcoming refugees than professionals. Attracting more skilled immigrants could even nurture home-grown talent, if it helped deal with the chronic shortage of teachers. In a country of coalition governments and cautious bureaucrats, none of this will be easy. Yet two decades ago, Germany pulled off a remarkable transformation to extraordinary effect. It is time for another visit to the health farm. ■

同样重要的是吸引新人才。德国已经放宽了移民规则，但签证程序仍然缓慢，而且德国更擅长欢迎难民而不是专业人士。如果有助于解决教师长期短缺的问题，吸引更多技术移民甚至可以培养本土人才。在一个由联合政府和谨慎官僚组成的国家，这一切都不是一件容易的事。然而二十年前，德国实现了一场非凡的转型，并取得了非凡的效果。是时候再次参观健康农场了。 ■

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