Emboldened by his triumph, the president-elect will enter the White House in January ready to make good on these MAGA campaign promises.
当选总统受到胜利的鼓舞，将于一月入主白宫，准备兑现这些“让美国再次伟大”的竞选承诺。
By Mike Dorning, Eric Martin and Tom Orlik (Bloomberg Economics)
作者：、和（彭博经济）
2024年11月8日 GMT+8 18:00
The opening of Donald Trump’s second term will be unlike any US government transition the world has seen in the modern era: It promises to combine the sharp policy break of a new presidency with an incumbent’s mastery of the levers of power.
唐纳德·特朗普第二任期的开始将不同于现代世界上所见的任何美国政府过渡：它承诺将新总统任期内的尖锐政策突破与现任总统对权力杠杆的掌控结合起来。
The Republican emerged from Tuesday’s election in a stronger position than even many allies anticipated and prepared to move swiftly on core economic priorities such as raising tariffs, cutting taxes and cracking down on undocumented migrants.
周二的选举中，共和党的地位甚至比许多盟友预期的还要强大，并准备在提高关税、减税和打击无证移民等核心经济优先事项上迅速采取行动。
And with a roster of loyalists set to join him in the White House — filling roles that in his first term were often held by establishment GOP figures or institutionalists who didn’t necessarily share Trump’s goals — his ambitions will be amply abetted.
随着一批忠实拥护者将加入他入主白宫——在他的第一个任期内，这些职位通常由共和党建制派人物或不一定认同特朗普目标的制度主义者担任——他的野心将得到充分的怂恿。
Trump raises his fist as he leaves the stage after an election night party in West Palm Beach, Florida on Nov. 6. Photographer: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post/Getty Images
11 月 6 日，在佛罗里达州西棕榈滩举行的选举之夜派对结束后，特朗普在离开舞台时举起拳头。摄影师：Jabin Botsford/华盛顿邮报/Getty Images
“It’s expanded everybody’s sense of what’s possible,” Mike McKenna, a first-term Trump White House adviser who is now an energy lobbyist, said of the election results.
“这扩大了每个人对可能性的认识，”特朗普第一任白宫顾问、现能源游说者迈克·麦肯纳(Mike McKenna)在谈到选举结果时表示。
Trump not only was on track Friday to win a majority of the national popular vote — a feat he didn’t achieve in 2016 — but had already swept out of office several long-serving Democratic senators, giving Republicans control of the chamber.
特朗普不仅有望在周五赢得全国普选的多数票（这是他在 2016 年没有实现的壮举），而且已经将几位长期任职的民主党参议员赶下台，让共和党控制了众议院。
On the campaign trail, Trump regularly declared that on his first day in office, he would launch the “largest deportation effort in American history” targeting undocumented migrants. In addition to the human toll, that would immediately hit economic sectors such as construction, hospitality and retail that rely heavily on migrants, legal and undocumented.
在竞选过程中，特朗普经常宣称，他将在上任第一天针对无证移民发起“美国历史上最大规模的驱逐行动”。除了人员伤亡之外，这还将立即打击严重依赖合法和无证移民的建筑、酒店和零售等经济部门。
Trump reaffirmed the promise Thursday in an interview with NBC News, saying he had “no choice” but to honor his commitment and “it’s not a question of a price tag.” He can order the deportation program on his own authority and the obstacles are primarily logistical, such as finding facilities to place detainees. Stocks in private prison companies, which offer a solution, soared after the election.
特朗普周四在接受 NBC 新闻采访时重申了这一承诺，称他“别无选择”，只能履行自己的承诺，而且“这不是价格标签的问题”。他可以自行下令实施驱逐计划，而障碍主要是后勤方面的，例如寻找安置被拘留者的设施。提供解决方案的私营监狱公司的股票在选举后飙升。
Trump’s Path to Enacting Policies 特朗普实施政策的路径
In many cases, the incoming administration has game plans left over from the first Trump term.
在许多情况下，即将上任的政府都有特朗普第一个任期遗留下来的游戏计划。
“This isn’t brain science, it's common sense. We’ve done it before, we’ll do it again,” said Mauricio Claver-Carone, a veteran of the first Trump administration, citing a list of immigration measures that can simply be reinstated.
“这不是脑科学，而是常识。特朗普第一届政府的资深人士毛里西奥·克拉弗-卡罗内(Mauricio Claver-Carone)表示，我们以前曾经这样做过，我们还会再这样做，他列举了一系列可以简单恢复的移民措施。
Trump named a White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles, less than 48 hours after polls closed. Washington was awash in speculation about who else would have key positions.
投票结束后不到 48 小时，特朗普任命苏西·怀尔斯 (Susie Wiles) 为白宫办公厅主任。华盛顿对还有谁将担任关键职务充满了猜测。
The emerging role of Elon Musk as an informal adviser could be a wild card in the administration. Musk joined a call Trump had Wednesday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
埃隆·马斯克作为非正式顾问的新兴角色可能会成为政府的一个未知数。马斯克周三参加了特朗普与乌克兰总统泽伦斯基的通话。
Some key Trump goals such as his tax cut plan depend on congressional approval. But Republicans are closing in on unified control of Washington, with at least 53 GOP senators and party leaders increasingly confident they will maintain their slim majority in the House.
特朗普的一些关键目标（例如减税计划）取决于国会的批准。但共和党正在接近对华盛顿的统一控制，至少 53 名共和党参议员和政党领导人越来越有信心他们将在众议院保持微弱多数。
Republican congressional leaders are far more beholden to Trump than in his first term, with stalwart Senator Mitch McConnell giving up his leadership post at the end of this year. In the House, Trump has the power to make or break leaders. Speaker Mike Johnson and other top GOP House leaders flew to Florida on election night to show their loyalty to Trump.
与特朗普第一个任期相比，共和党国会领导人对特朗普的感激之情要大得多，坚定的参议员米奇·麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)在今年年底放弃了他的领导职位。在众议院，特朗普拥有塑造或摧毁领导人的权力。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊和其他共和党众议院高层领导人在选举之夜飞往佛罗里达州，以表达他们对特朗普的忠诚。
No more than two of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection and three of the seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict him will still be in Congress when Trump takes the oath of office.
2021 年 1 月 6 日叛乱后投票弹劾特朗普的 10 名众议院共和党人中，投票将特朗普定罪的 7 名参议院共和党人中，在特朗普宣誓就职时，将不超过 2 人留在国会。
Still, the slender Republican majorities in both chambers leave Trump vulnerable to defections whenever his agenda provokes a public backlash.
尽管如此，共和党在参众两院的微弱多数席位使得特朗普在其议程引起公众强烈反对时很容易倒戈。
Not everyone will roll over for the new president. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell — whose term doesn’t expire until 2026 — was pressed by reporters on whether he would step down from his post if Trump asked. His answer was direct: “No.”
并不是所有人都会支持新总统。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（其任期要到 2026 年才到期）被记者追问，如果特朗普提出要求，他是否会辞职。他的回答很直接：“没有。”
Market reaction is another constraint. Treasury borrowing costs have already risen on the prospect of a higher debt load. Tariffs hitting corporate profits could flip stock market sentiment from greed to fear.
市场反应是另一个制约因素。由于债务负担增加的前景，国债借贷成本已经上升。关税打击企业利润可能会使股市情绪从贪婪转向恐惧。
But Trump, never shy about wielding power, enters office brimming with confidence. At his election celebration, he claimed the results amounted to “an unprecedented and powerful mandate.”
但特朗普从不羞于行使权力，上任时信心十足。在他的选举庆祝活动上，他声称选举结果相当于“前所未有的强大授权”。
Here are key policy areas for administration efforts from day one:
以下是从第一天起行政工作的关键政策领域：
Tariffs 关税
Trump has vowed to impose massive new tariffs, eyeing a duty of 20% on all foreign goods and 60% or higher on goods coming from China. On the campaign trail, he also dropped threats of even-higher rates on specific countries and products.
特朗普誓言要征收巨额新关税，计划对所有外国商品征收 20% 的关税，对来自中国的商品征收 60% 或更高的关税。在竞选过程中，他还放弃了对特定国家和产品征收更高税率的威胁。
He faces relatively few constraints in imposing his promised tariffs and doesn’t need to consult with Congress. A 1977 law gives him authority to impose duties in cases of an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to national security, foreign policy, or the US economy. Alternatively, he could use other legal provisions he invoked in his first term to raise some tariffs. Those require a public comment period, which add a delay.
他在实施承诺的关税方面面临的限制相对较少，并且不需要与国会协商。 1977 年的一项法律赋予他在国家安全、外交政策或美国经济受到“不寻常和特别威胁”的情况下征收关税的权力。或者，他可以利用他在第一个任期内援引的其他法律条款来提高一些关税。这些需要公众意见征询期，这会增加延迟。
A truck drives past shipping containers at the Port of Philadelphia in Pennsylvania on Nov. 6. Photographer: Hannah Beier/Bloomberg
11 月 6 日，一辆卡车驶过宾夕法尼亚州费城港的集装箱。摄影师：Hannah Beier/Bloomberg
Some Trump advisers have suggested he might use the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tactic with allies and rivals alike and back off the notion of imposing them across the board. Others have suggested that Trump is truly serious this time about rewriting the rules of international trade, no matter the consequences. He’s also pointed to tariffs as a way to help pay for the big tax cuts he’s promised, though economists argue they won’t raise nearly enough money. In either case, tariffs are expected to play an even larger role in his second term.
特朗普的一些顾问表示，他可能会利用关税威胁作为与盟友和竞争对手的谈判策略，并放弃全面征收关税的想法。其他人则表示，特朗普这次真的很认真地重写国际贸易规则，无论后果如何。他还指出，关税是帮助支付他所承诺的大幅减税的一种方式，尽管经济学家认为关税不会筹集到足够的资金。无论哪种情况，关税预计都将在他的第二个任期内发挥更大的作用。
“We advise readers to take the president-elect’s threats of tariffs seriously if not literally,” Wells Fargo & Co. economists Jay Bryson and Michael Pugliese said in a note to clients Wednesday.
富国银行经济学家杰·布赖森（Jay Bryson）和迈克尔·普格利斯（Michael Pugliese）周三在给客户的一份报告中表示：“我们建议读者认真对待当选总统的关税威胁，即使不是字面意思。”
**What Bloomberg Economics Says: 彭博经济研究院的观点是：
On the campaign trail, Trump pledged tariffs of 60% on China and 20% on everyone else. In office, it's unlikely he'll go that far. Trump views tariffs as a bargaining tool. He may deny they pose risks to growth, inflation, and corporate profits. Markets will beg to differ. With companies like Apple Inc. in the firing line, a major drop in stock prices could give Trump pause. Views within his administration will likely be divided, with advocates like Robert Lighthizer facing off against pro-market pragmatists. Practicalities like assembling teams and designing tariff lists mean implementation will take some time.
在竞选过程中，特朗普承诺对中国征收 60% 的关税，对其他国家征收 20% 的关税。在办公室里，他不太可能走那么远。特朗普将关税视为讨价还价的工具。他可能否认它们对增长、通胀和企业利润构成风险。市场可能会有不同的看法。由于苹果公司等公司处于前线，股价大幅下跌可能会让特朗普犹豫不决。他的政府内部的观点可能会出现分歧，像罗伯特·莱特希泽这样的倡导者将与亲市场的实用主义者对峙。组建团队和设计关税清单等实际操作意味着实施需要一些时间。
A plausible base case is that threats start immediately, adding uncertainty for business and investors. Actual tariffs may follow either in the first quarter of 2025 or the second half of the year, depending on the procedure used. Tariffs may be launched at different times and selectively applied to different countries and products. If tariffs on China rise to 30%, with a 5% rate on other countries, the average would increase to 8.5% from 2.6%. This scenario could reduce the US global trade share from 20% to 16% by 2028, modestly slow growth and raise inflation. Dollar appreciation and retailers absorbing tariffs through lower margins may further offset the inflation impact. If only China is targeted — and market champions like Apple get a carve-out — the impact on the US could be contained.
一个合理的基本情况是威胁立即开始，这增加了企业和投资者的不确定性。实际关税可能会在 2025 年第一季度或下半年实施，具体取决于所采用的程序。关税可能会在不同时间推出，并选择性地适用于不同的国家和产品。如果对中国的关税提高到30%，而对其他国家的关税提高到5%，那么平均关税将从2.6%提高到8.5%。到 2028 年，这种情况可能会使美国的全球贸易份额从 20% 降至 16%，经济增长适度放缓，通胀上升。美元升值和零售商通过降低利润吸收关税可能会进一步抵消通胀影响。如果只针对中国——并且像苹果这样的市场冠军获得豁免——对美国的影响可能会得到遏制。
Trump’s Tariff Plans Would Bring Rates to Highest in Decades 特朗普的关税计划将使利率达到数十年来的最高水平
The Fed 美联储
Trump’s victory has already shaken things up for the Fed. His economic agenda could well spur both growth and inflation. Investors have responded by dumping US Treasury bonds, prompting a slew of economists to rethink their expectations for how quickly the Fed will continue lowering interest rates in 2025. Powell said Thursday the central bank won’t be altering its outlook for rates in anticipation of new fiscal or trade policies and will wait to see what’s actually enacted.
特朗普的胜利已经给美联储带来了动摇。他的经济议程很可能刺激经济增长和通货膨胀。投资者的反应是抛售美国国债，促使众多经济学家重新思考他们对美联储在 2025 年继续降息的速度的预期。鲍威尔周四表示，美联储不会因为预期新的降息而改变利率前景。财政或贸易政策，并将等待看看实际颁布的内容。
Powell speaks during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington, DC, on Nov. 7. Photographer: Ting Shen/Bloomberg
11 月 7 日，鲍威尔在华盛顿特区联邦公开市场委员会会议后的新闻发布会上发表讲话。摄影：Ting Shen/彭博社
Then there are questions about what Trump might do to more directly influence the central bank. The former president has a history of hectoring Powell over rates and, in his first term, explored the possibility of demoting him from the chair. Trump has more recently said he would let Powell serve out his term as chair, which expires in May 2026. But it would hardly be a surprise if Trump reneged on that promise and tried to remove Powell, a move that would likely end up in the courts if Powell challenged it. Meantime, some Republicans close to the president-elect have said the new administration may try to remove the Fed’s top banking regulator, Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr.
接下来的问题是特朗普可能会采取哪些措施来更直接地影响央行。这位前总统有在利率问题上恐吓鲍威尔的历史，并在他的第一个任期内探讨了将他降职的可能性。特朗普最近表示，他将让鲍威尔完成其主席任期，该任期将于 2026 年 5 月届满。但如果特朗普背弃这一承诺并试图罢免鲍威尔，也就不足为奇了，此举很可能最终导致如果鲍威尔对此提出质疑，则向法院提起诉讼。与此同时，一些与当选总统关系密切的共和党人表示，新政府可能会试图罢免美联储最高银行监管机构、监管副主席迈克尔·巴尔(Michael Barr)。
All of this suggests Trump and Powell could be on a collision course. And the Fed chair even appeared to strike a preemptive blow in his press conference Thursday. Asked if he thought the president has the power to fire or demote any of the Fed’s governors who occupy senior leadership roles — that would be him and his two vice chairs — he was curt: “Not permitted under the law.”
所有这些都表明特朗普和鲍威尔可能会发生冲突。美联储主席甚至在周四的新闻发布会上似乎先发制人。当被问及他是否认为总统有权解雇或降职任何担任高级领导职务的美联储理事（即他和他的两位副主席）时，他简短地说：“法律不允许。”
**What Bloomberg Economics Says: 彭博经济研究院的观点是：
For the Fed, Trump’s win means a head-spinning array of conflicting dynamics. The Trump trade — with long-term borrowing costs sharply higher — means tighter financial conditions, threatening the housing market and adding impetus to cut. But as monetary policy works with long lags, officials also need to anticipate the effect of proposed tariff hikes and tax cuts — which they probably assess are inflationary. Last but not least, Trump has no filter on sharing his preferences for monetary policy. That means pressure for the Fed to guard its independence, and potentially err on the side of keeping rates restrictive. How does all of that net out? Short-term, another 25-basis-point cut in December appears baked in. Looking further out, our base case for 2025 is another 100 basis points of cuts. But uncertainty around that forecast, and the chances of a Fed misstep as conditions rapidly shift, are elevated.
对于美联储来说，特朗普的胜利意味着一系列令人头晕的相互冲突的动态。特朗普的贸易——长期借贷成本大幅上升——意味着金融状况收紧，威胁房地产市场并增加降息动力。但由于货币政策的作用存在长期滞后，官员们还需要预测拟议的关税上调和减税的影响——他们可能认为这会引发通货膨胀。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，特朗普在分享他对货币政策的偏好时没有任何过滤器。这意味着美联储面临维护其独立性的压力，并且可能会在保持利率限制方面犯错。这一切是如何产生的？短期来看，12 月份再次降息 25 个基点似乎已成定局。展望未来，我们对 2025 年的基本预期是再降息 100 个基点。但围绕这一预测的不确定性以及随着形势迅速变化美联储失误的可能性都在增加。
Trump Win Adds Uncertainty on Fed Cuts 特朗普获胜增加了美联储降息的不确定性
Immigration 移民
Trump’s likely to move quickly to implement mass deportations, which was a signature pledge on the campaign trail. But removing that many people fast will run into plenty of hurdles, from basic logistics to legal and political challenges. In his first term, Trump wasn’t able to deliver on his promises of large-scale removals or building the border wall, though he managed to make some progress on both.
特朗普可能会迅速采取行动实施大规模驱逐出境，这是竞选过程中的标志性承诺。但快速撤离这么多人将会遇到很多障碍，从基本的后勤到法律和政治挑战。在他的第一个任期内，特朗普未能兑现大规模搬迁或修建边境墙的承诺，尽管他在这两方面都取得了一些进展。
He’s likely to start with the more than 1 million people in the US who have no legal basis to stay, either because they’ve committed crimes or exhausted appeals processes. But stepped-up efforts to deport them are likely to run into the limits of Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s ability to remove people and on the willingness of origin countries — principally Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras — to accept them. Some countries like China, Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua haven't always agreed to receive deportation flights. In Trump’s first term, deportations never surpassed 360,000 a year, below the levels seen under Barack Obama.
他可能会从超过100万美国人开始，这些人没有法律依据留下来，要么因为他们犯了罪，要么已经用尽了上诉程序。但加大力度驱逐他们可能会遇到移民和海关执法局驱逐人员的能力以及原籍国（主要是墨西哥、危地马拉、萨尔瓦多和洪都拉斯）接受他们的意愿的限制。中国、委内瑞拉、古巴和尼加拉瓜等一些国家并不总是同意接受驱逐航班。在特朗普的第一个任期内，每年驱逐出境的人数从未超过 36 万人，低于巴拉克·奥巴马 (Barack Obama) 领导下的水平。
The US-Mexico border wall in Campo, California Photographer: Mark Abramson/Bloomberg
加利福尼亚州坎波的美墨边境墙摄影师：Mark Abramson/Bloomberg
This time, he’ll also be looking to reverse Biden-era executive orders that undid some of his first-term policies, such as mandating asylum seekers remain in Mexico as their cases are processed or that they seek asylum instead in other Latin American countries. That will require potentially tough negotiations with those nations. Another early goal for the administration is likely to be seeking a deal with Panama to close the flow of migrants through the treacherous Darien Gap from South America, according to Claver-Carone.
这一次，他还将寻求扭转拜登时代的行政命令，这些命令废除了他第一任期的一些政策，例如要求寻求庇护者在案件处理期间留在墨西哥，或者要求他们在其他拉丁美洲国家寻求庇护。这可能需要与这些国家进行艰难的谈判。克拉弗-卡罗内表示，政府的另一个早期目标可能是寻求与巴拿马达成协议，以阻止来自南美洲的移民通过危险的达连峡流入。
**What Bloomberg Economics Says: 彭博经济研究院的观点是：
Trump has promised “the largest deportation in the history of our country.” Leaving aside the humanitarian cost, deporting millions of people would be a logistical and law enforcement challenge, requiring large-scale tracking, arrests, detentions, processing, and removals. Estimates put the cost at more than $300 billion. The US would also need cooperation from recipient countries. A plausible base case is that Trump secures the US border, returning unauthorized immigration to a “normal” level of 200,000 people a year, and begins deportations that remove many — but not all — unauthorized migrants. If that includes all who entered since 2020, we estimate the US population would be smaller by 8.7 million people. The US economy would be more than 3% smaller by 2028, and GDP per capita marginally lower relative to a base case of no policy change. Deportations would also be mildly deflationary, with the reduction in demand outweighing the contraction in supply.
特朗普承诺“我们国家历史上最大规模的驱逐出境”。撇开人道主义成本不谈，驱逐数百万人将是后勤和执法方面的挑战，需要大规模追踪、逮捕、拘留、处理和转移。据估计，成本超过 3000 亿美元。美国还需要受援国的合作。一个看似合理的基本情况是，特朗普确保美国边境安全，将未经授权的移民恢复到每年 20 万人的“正常”水平，并开始驱逐许多（但不是全部）未经授权的移民。如果这包括 2020 年以来的所有入境者，我们估计美国人口将减少 870 万人。到 2028 年，美国经济将萎缩 3% 以上，人均 GDP 相对于没有政策变化的基本情况略有下降。驱逐也会造成轻微的通货紧缩，需求的减少超过了供应的收缩。
Trump Promises Most Deportations in US History 特朗普承诺驱逐美国历史上最多的人
Deregulation 放松管制
Trump plans to cut down on regulatory burdens on businesses and his agenda has particular implications for the banking and energy sectors.
特朗普计划减轻企业的监管负担，他的议程对银行和能源行业具有特别的影响。
High on his to-do list are plans to reverse a Biden-era pause on issuing new licenses to export liquefied natural gas, roll back auto emissions standards he derides as tantamount to an electric vehicle “mandate” and accelerate the construction of new power plants nationwide.
他的待办事项清单中的首要任务是计划扭转拜登时代暂停发放液化天然气出口新许可证的计划，取消他嘲笑为等同于电动汽车“命令”的汽车排放标准，并加速新发电厂的建设全国。
A construction site at the Venture Global Plaquemines LNG plant in Port Sulphur, Louisiana, US, on May 16. Photographer: Bryan Tarnowski/Bloomberg
5 月 16 日，美国路易斯安那州硫磺港 Venture Global Plaquemines 液化天然气工厂的建筑工地。摄影师：Bryan Tarnowski/彭博社
In some cases, the real work will take months — and maybe more — to execute, as federal agencies undertake a formal notice-and-comment rulemaking process to repeal and rewrite Biden-era regulations. Still, analysts and former Trump officials said they expect the changes to be felt immediately, potentially shaping boardroom decisions on auto product lines and drilling plans.
在某些情况下，真正的工作将需要数月甚至更长时间才能执行，因为联邦机构将采取正式的通知和评论规则制定流程来废除和重写拜登时代的法规。尽管如此，分析师和前特朗普官员表示，他们预计这些变化将立即显现出来，这可能会影响董事会关于汽车产品线和钻探计划的决策。
In finance, Trump set the tone for his deregulatory drive by promising to fire Wall Street’s top cop and end what he described as an “anti-crypto crusade” during the Biden era.
在金融领域，特朗普承诺解雇华尔街最高警察，并结束他所说的拜登时代的“反加密十字军东征”，为他的放松管制运动定下了基调。
Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler has spearheaded a fierce crackdown on the crypto industry, which responded by throwing millions of dollars into presidential and congressional races. If Gensler follows Washington tradition, he will resign by inauguration day. The new SEC chief will likely support changes to existing securities laws to benefit crypto firms — or allow digital-asset companies to fall under compliance with rules on the books.
美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒带头对加密货币行业进行严厉打击，加密货币行业的回应是向总统和国会竞选投入数百万美元。如果詹斯勒遵循华盛顿传统，他将在就职日之前辞职。新任 SEC 主席可能会支持修改现有证券法，以使加密货币公司受益，或者允许数字资产公司遵守书面规则。
Other targets will likely include an SEC rule forcing companies to disclose their greenhouse gas emissions. That regulation was already watered down and considered vulnerable even before the election.
其他目标可能包括美国证券交易委员会的规定，迫使公司披露其温室气体排放量。甚至在选举之前，这项监管就已经被淡化，并被认为是脆弱的。
For powerful banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, the biggest prize is the chance to further weaken and stall the Biden administration’s landmark bank-capital proposal. Trump can’t do that on his own but he can appoint sympathetic regulators who will.
对于摩根大通、高盛集团和摩根士丹利等实力雄厚的银行来说，最大的好处是有机会进一步削弱和拖延拜登政府具有里程碑意义的银行资本提案。特朗普无法独自做到这一点，但他可以任命富有同情心的监管机构来做到这一点。
**What Bloomberg Intelligence Says: 彭博行业研究指出：
High on the agenda is to remove the Biden administration’s moratorium on LNG export authorizations to countries without free-trade agreements, opening the way to granting permits and extensions for some of the proposed projects. We expect a couple of developers to reach positive final investment decisions in 2025 and move forward after no projects were greenlit this year, boosting US LNG exports by 2030. Other objectives could include energy infrastructure permitting reform to speed and simplify the convoluted process.
议程的重点是取消拜登政府暂停向没有自由贸易协定的国家出口液化天然气的授权，为一些拟议项目的许可和延期开辟道路。我们预计一些开发商将在 2025 年做出积极的最终投资决定，并在今年没有项目获批后继续推进，到 2030 年增加美国液化天然气出口。其他目标可能包括能源基础设施改革，以加快和简化复杂的过程。
In finance, we’re likely to see at least a lengthy delay in the Basel III endgame, which would have increased capital requirements. That's already contributed to the rally in bank stocks.
在金融方面，我们可能会看到巴塞尔协议 III 的最后阶段至少会出现长时间的延迟，这将增加资本要求。这已经推动了银行股的上涨。
In the cryptocurrency space, Trump will bring a friendlier SEC — easing enforcement risk as an immediate outcome for an industry that has spent hundreds of millions of dollars defending their position. His victory also increases the chances Congress will develop a comprehensive regulatory framework providing clarity for firms like Coinbase. We note however that such a framework will increase compliance and risk costs for crypto platforms, though the costs should be manageable for larger players.
在加密货币领域，特朗普将带来一个更加友好的美国证券交易委员会（SEC）——对于一个花费数亿美元捍卫其地位的行业来说，此举的直接结果是缓解执法风险。他的胜利也增加了国会制定全面监管框架的机会，为 Coinbase 等公司提供明确的透明度。然而我们注意到，这样的框架将增加加密平台的合规性和风险成本，尽管成本对于较大的参与者来说应该是可控的。
Taxes 税收
Behind the scenes, Trump’s policy advisers have been planning for what promises to be the economic Super Bowl of 2025 — the tax fight. Many of the provisions from the Republicans’ 2017 tax bill expire at the end of next year and Trump is looking to extend all of the personal income tax cuts as well as further reducing the corporate tax rate.
在幕后，特朗普的政策顾问一直在筹划有望成为 2025 年经济超级碗的税收斗争。共和党 2017 年税收法案中的许多条款将于明年年底到期，特朗普希望延长所有个人所得税减免政策，并进一步降低企业税率。
On the campaign trail, he also promised to rescind taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security checks — though it is less clear if he will be able to follow through, given concerns about the deficit. Out of all of those ideas, Trump is most attached to eliminating taxes on tips — a proposal he has spoken about since the Republican primaries after a Nevada waitress raised the idea with him. He has also talked about lifting the current cap on the state and local tax deduction, a key way he paid for the 2017 tax bill.
在竞选过程中，他还承诺取消小费、加班费和社会保障支票税——尽管考虑到赤字问题，目前尚不清楚他是否能够兑现承诺。在所有这些想法中，特朗普最看重的是取消小费税——自共和党初选以来，在内华达州一名女服务员向他提出这个想法后，他就一直在谈论这一提议。他还谈到了取消目前州和地方税收减免的上限，这是他支付 2017 年税单的一个关键方式。
The bill for Trump’s tax wishlist totals $11 trillion and counting, according to the Tax Foundation. That includes the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, which will expire at the end of next year unless Congress acts.
据税务基金会称，特朗普的税收愿望清单中的账单总额为 11 万亿美元，并且还在不断增加。其中包括延长 2017 年的减税政策，除非国会采取行动，该减税政策将于明年年底到期。
Trump has been talking about eliminating taxes on tips since the Republican primaries. Source: The Washington Post/Getty Images
自共和党初选以来，特朗普一直在谈论取消小费税。资料来源：华盛顿邮报/盖蒂图片社
Trump can’t do anything on taxes without Congress, which will result in an internal Republican battle over which ideas to prioritize and how big the bill should be. Adding to the complexities, a GOP trifecta in Washington would mean a flood of lobbyists pressuring lawmakers and the White House to tuck their pet tax breaks into the bill, potentially bloating and slowing down the negotiations.
如果没有国会，特朗普就无法在税收问题上采取任何行动，这将导致共和党内部就优先考虑哪些想法以及法案的规模应有多大展开争论。更复杂的是，华盛顿的共和党三连胜意味着大量游说者向立法者和白宫施压，要求他们将他们的宠物税收减免纳入该法案，这可能会导致谈判变得臃肿并减慢谈判速度。
If Democrats are able to notch a narrow victory in the House, the scope of the debate will largely be constrained to the items scheduled to sunset: lower individual tax rates, the child tax credit, the $10,000 limit on state and local tax deductions, a 20% write-off for many privately held businesses and a scaled back estate tax. Any deal would need to get a majority in a Democratic-led House and 60 votes in the Senate, necessitating bipartisan compromise.
如果民主党能够在众议院取得微弱胜利，辩论的范围将很大程度上局限于计划取消的项目：降低个人税率、儿童税收抵免、州和地方税收减免的 10,000 美元限额、许多私营企业可享受 20% 的冲销，并减少遗产税。任何协议都需要在民主党领导的众议院获得多数票，并在参议院获得 60 票，因此需要两党妥协。
The possibilities for tax cuts explode if Republicans hang onto their House majority. That would allow them to use a legislative procedure to usher a bill through both chambers solely on GOP support.
如果共和党保住众议院多数席位，减税的可能性就会爆发。这将使他们能够利用立法程序在共和党的支持下通过参众两院的法案。
**What Bloomberg Economics Says: 彭博经济研究院的观点是：
Even though it’s likely Republicans will control Congress, we think Trump’s most sweeping tax-cut proposals won’t be fully realized. The cost in lost revenue would run into trillions of dollars, and there's no viable plan for plugging the gap. Bond vigilantes are already driving up Treasury borrowing costs. We think market forces will provide a check on Trump’s plan. Considering what’s plausible, we estimate that Trump's tax policies will mean modestly faster growth and higher inflation, and put debt on a path to 141% of GDP by 2034, compared to a no-policy-change baseline of 134%. This assumes most but not all of the individual tax cuts in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will be extended, and Social Security and tips won't be exempted from income tax. If Trump delivers everything he promised, the debt ratio would rise to 150% of GDP in 2034.
尽管共和党可能会控制国会，但我们认为特朗普最全面的减税提案不会完全实现。收入损失的成本将高达数万亿美元，而且没有可行的计划来弥补这一缺口。债券义务警员已经推高了财政部的借贷成本。我们认为市场力量将对特朗普的计划进行制衡。考虑到什么是合理的，我们估计特朗普的税收政策将意味着适度更快的增长和更高的通胀，到 2034 年，债务将达到 GDP 的 141%，而没有政策变化的基准为 134%。这是假设 2017 年减税和就业法案中的大部分（但不是全部）个人减税将得到延长，并且社会保障和小费不会免除所得税。如果特朗普兑现他所承诺的一切，债务比率将在2034年升至GDP的150%。
Trump Tax Policies Would Mean Faster-Rising Debt 特朗普的税收政策将意味着债务增长更快
— With assistance from Ari Natter, Jennifer Dlouhy, Chris Condon, Nancy Cook, Dan Flatley, Katanga Johnson, Lydia Beyoud, Stephanie Stoughton, Laura Davison, Dave Merrill, Mathieu Benhamou, Alex Newman, Anna Wong (Bloomberg Economics), Bhargavi Sakthivel (Bloomberg Economics), Chris Collins (Bloomberg Economics), Gerard DiPippo (Bloomberg Economics), Eleonora Mavroeidi (Bloomberg Economics), Nathan Dean (Bloomberg Intelligence), Talon Custer (Bloomberg Intelligence), Estelle Ou (Bloomberg Economics)
— 在 Ari Natter、Jennifer Dlouhy、Chris Condon、Nancy Cook、Dan Flatley、Katanga Johnson、Lydia Beyoud、Stephanie Stoughton、Laura Davison、Dave Merrill、Mathieu Benhamou、Alex Newman、Anna Wong（彭博经济）、Bhargavi Sakthivel 的协助下（彭博经济）、Chris Collins（彭博经济）、Gerard DiPippo（彭博经济）、Eleonora Mavroeidi（彭博经济）、Nathan Dean（彭博情报）、Talon Custer（彭博情报）、Estelle Ou（彭博经济）
