Trump’s relationships with world leaders will shape global events 
特朗普与世界领导人的关系将影响全球事件

By Henry Meyer, Christoph Rauwald, and Simone Iglesias
作者：亨利·迈耶、克里斯托夫·劳瓦尔德和西蒙·伊格莱西亚斯

2024年11月7日 at GMT+8 03:40

US President Donald Trump during an election night event at the Palm Beach Convention Center on Nov. 6. Photographer: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
11 月 6 日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在棕榈滩会议中心举行的选举之夜活动中。摄影师：Joe Raedle/Getty Images

If there is one thing Donald Trump is clear on, it’s winners and losers.
如果唐纳德·特朗普有一件事情是清楚的，那就是赢家和输家。

The transactional nature of his first presidency showed how he ranked leaders based on their perceived strengths and weaknesses — and his personal taste. That meant Germany was cut down to size but the likes of North Korea got an audience.
他第一任总统任期的交易性质表明，他如何根据领导人的优势和劣势以及他的个人品味来对他们进行排名。这意味着德国的规模被缩小，但朝鲜等国家却得到了观众。

How everyone fits into his orbit this time will come down to how many ingratiate themselves and what kind of relationships they already had. Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu will celebrate a fellow political survivor while Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy will need to put on a brave face. Others like India’s Narendra Modi and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman will seek out deals without the finger wagging they had to endure under other US administrations.
这次每个人如何融入他的轨道，将取决于有多少人讨好自己，以及他们已经拥有什么样的关系。以色列的本杰明·内塔尼亚胡将庆祝一位政治幸存者，而乌克兰的弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基则需要表现出勇敢的面孔。其他人，如印度的纳伦德拉·莫迪和沙特阿拉伯的穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼，将寻求交易，而不会像其他美国政府那样忍受别人的指手画脚。

Here is a look at who will be pegged as a friend or foe in Trump world.
以下是特朗普世界中谁将被视为朋友或敌人的情况。

Winners 获奖者

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡

Trump and Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago estate, in Palm Beach, on July 26.Photographer: Amos Ben-Gershom/GPO Handout/Anadolu/Getty Images
7 月 26 日，特朗普和内塔尼亚胡在棕榈滩海湖庄园。摄影师：Amos Ben-Gershom/GPO Handout/Anadolu/Getty Images

He’s had a tense relationship with outgoing President Joe Biden and will welcome the arrival of a longtime ally in the White House.
他与即将卸任的总统乔·拜登关系紧张，并将欢迎一位长期盟友入主白宫。

Trump is likely to reinforce US support for Israel. Biden paused some military aid over concern at Palestinian civilians’ suffering from Israel’s war on Hamas, which the US designates a terrorist group. The incoming US leader will also be more sympathetic to Netanyahu’s insistence on pursuing the battle against Iranian proxies and refusal to countenance a future Palestinian state, despite the risks of igniting a bigger regional war.
特朗普可能会加强美国对以色列的支持。拜登暂停了一些军事援助，原因是担心巴勒斯坦平民因以色列对哈马斯的战争而遭受苦难，美国将哈马斯定为恐怖组织。这位即将上任的美国领导人也将更加同情内塔尼亚胡坚持对伊朗代理人进行战斗，并拒绝支持未来的巴勒斯坦国，尽管存在引发更大规模地区战争的风险。

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi
印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪

Modi during a news conference at Parliament House in New Delhi on July 22.Photographer: Prakash Singh/Bloomberg
7 月 22 日，莫迪在新德里议会大厦举行的新闻发布会上。摄影：Prakash Singh/Bloomberg

Trump’s return is a boost for Modi, who’s faced scrutiny for his Hindu nationalist policies at home and allegations of extra-judicial killings abroad. Modi and Trump share close personal ties, often praise each other publicly, and call each other friends.
特朗普的回归对莫迪来说是一个提振，莫迪因其在国内的印度教民族主义政策和在国外的法外处决指控而面临审查。莫迪和特朗普私人关系密切，经常公开赞扬对方，并称对方为朋友。

A Trump administration may not support Canada’s push to hold India’s government accountable for alleged killings of dissidents. Trump’s promise of negotiating a deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine also gives Modi space to maintain close ties with Moscow, which supplies India with cheap oil and military equipment. The Biden administration, in contrast, had expressed frustration with New Delhi when Modi met Putin in Moscow in July.
特朗普政府可能不会支持加拿大推动印度政府对涉嫌杀害持不同政见者的行为负责。特朗普承诺通过谈判达成协议以结束俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争，这也为莫迪提供了与莫斯科保持密切关系的空间，莫斯科为印度提供廉价石油和军事装备。相比之下，当莫迪七月在莫斯科会见普京时，拜登政府曾表达了对新德里的失望。

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin
俄罗斯总统****弗拉基米尔·普京

Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attend the credentials ceremony in Moscow on Nov. 5.Photographer: Yuri Kochetkov/AFP/Getty Images
普京和俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫于 11 月 5 日在莫斯科出席国书颁发仪式。摄影：Yuri Kochetkov/AFP/Getty Images

Putin see Trump’s comeback as an opportunity to exploit divisions in the West and extract further gains in Ukraine. The incoming US president is expected to strain the unity of NATO allies and put the future of aid for Ukraine in doubt with his ‘America First’ policy.
普京将特朗普的复出视为利用西方分歧并在乌克兰获取进一步利益的机会。预计即将上任的美国总统将因其“美国优先”政策而导致北约盟国的团结紧张，并使对乌克兰援助的未来受到质疑。

His unpredictability, though, has some worried in the Kremlin that Trump could in the short-term escalate the conflict in a bid to force a settlement on Putin, with potentially disastrous consequences such as a nuclear confrontation.
不过，他的不可预测性让克里姆林宫的一些人担心，特朗普可能会在短期内升级冲突，以迫使普京达成和解，从而可能带来核对抗等灾难性后果。

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼

Mohammed bin Salman attends an EU-GCC summit in Brussels on Oct. 16.Photographer: Johanna Geron/AFP/Getty Images
10 月 16 日，穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼出席在布鲁塞尔举行的欧盟-海湾合作委员会峰会。摄影师：Johanna Geron/AFP/Getty Images

The kingdom’s de facto ruler will see an opportunity to revive long-stalled efforts to secure a key security pact with the US. Trump, whose team drew up the Abraham Accords that opened diplomatic ties between Israel and a number of Arab states, is expected to devote major attention to expanding that to Saudi Arabia.
沙特事实上的统治者将看到一个机会，重新启动长期停滞的努力，以确保与美国达成一项重要的安全协议。特朗普的团队起草了《亚伯拉罕协议》，开启了以色列与一些阿拉伯国家之间的外交关系，预计特朗普将重点关注将这一协议扩展到沙特阿拉伯。

If he can unlock an Israeli peace treaty with the kingdom, that would provide the political backing in Washington to extend the US security umbrella to Saudi Arabia and allow it to focus on the economy and ease fears of any potential threats from Iran.
如果他能够与沙特达成一项以色列和平条约，这将为华盛顿提供政治支持，将美国的安全保护伞扩大到沙特阿拉伯，并使其能够专注于经济并缓解对伊朗任何潜在威胁的担忧。

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni
意大利总理****乔治亚·梅洛尼

Meloni in the courtyard of Palazzo Chigi in Rome on Nov. 5.Photographer: Simona Granati/Corbis/Getty Images
11 月 5 日，梅洛尼在罗马基吉宫的庭院里。摄影师：Simona Granati/Corbis/Getty Images

Meloni has become staunchly pro-Atlantic but remains essentially a hard right politician - and while she had vowed to work with whomever won the US election, her affinity with Elon Musk will likely help her have the ear of the new US President. She will position herself to become a conduit between NATO, the EU, and the White House.
梅洛尼已经变得坚定地支持大西洋，但本质上仍然是一名强硬的右翼政客——虽然她发誓要与赢得美国大选的任何人合作，但她与埃隆·马斯克的密切关系可能会帮助她赢得新任美国总统的青睐。她将把自己定位为北约、欧盟和白宫之间的桥梁。

“If Trump gets to the White House, NATO won't break, we've been there before, but things will get tougher. The other big theme is China, but we have to understand that we Europeans can't be a go-between between the US and China,” said Francesco Talò, Meloni’s former chief diplomatic advisor. “We are part of the West, and the West has to remain united. Which means we have to avoid trade wars at all costs.”
“如果特朗普入主白宫，北约不会崩溃，我们以前也经历过这种情况，但事情会变得更加艰难。另一个大主题是中国，但我们必须明白，我们欧洲人不能成为美国和中国之间的中间人，”梅洛尼前首席外交顾问弗朗西斯科·塔洛表示。 “我们是西方的一部分，西方必须保持团结。这意味着我们必须不惜一切代价避免贸易战。”

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
土耳其总统****雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安

Erdogan at the Palace of Serbia in Belgrade on Oct. 11.Photographer: Oliver Bunic/Bloomberg
10 月 11 日，埃尔多安在贝尔格莱德塞尔维亚宫。摄影师：Oliver Bunic/Bloomberg

Turkey may be cautiously optimistic. Erdogan and Trump share a history of cordial communication, often speaking by phone, with Erdogan even referring to him as “my friend”. Unlike during the Biden era, a Trump presidency could offer Erdogan more direct access in Washington.
土耳其可能持谨慎乐观的态度。埃尔多安和特朗普有着亲切的沟通历史，经常通过电话交谈，埃尔多安甚至称他为“我的朋友”。与拜登时代不同的是，特朗普担任总统可以让埃尔多安更直接地接触华盛顿。

Trump’s anti-war stance and focus on trade may also work in Erdogan’s favor. However, Erdogan’s anti-Israel rhetoric could strain ties, and Turkey’s recent efforts to increase cooperation with China may pose challenges.
特朗普的反战立场和对贸易的关注也可能对埃尔多安有利。然而，埃尔多安的反以色列言论可能会使两国关系紧张，而土耳其最近加强与中国合作的努力可能会带来挑战。

North Korea’s Leader Kim Jong Un
朝鲜领导人****金正恩

Trump meets with Kim at the border village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone in June 2019.Photographer: Susan Walsh/AP Images
2019 年 6 月，特朗普在非军事区板门店边境村庄与金正恩会面。摄影师：Susan Walsh/AP Images

Perhaps the Asian leader most welcoming of Trump’s return is the North Korean dictator. Kim and Trump struck up a warm relationship over letters and two summit meetings during Trump’s first term, although ultimately that fizzled and no deal was reached to end North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear-tipped missiles able to reach the American mainland.
也许最欢迎特朗普回归的亚洲领导人是朝鲜独裁者。在特朗普的第一个任期内，金正恩和特朗普通过信件和两次峰会建立了友好的关系，尽管最终以失败告终，并且没有达成任何协议来结束朝鲜对能够到达美国大陆的核弹头导弹的追求。

Kim has stiff-armed all American approaches for dialogue since then and instead grown close to Putin as North Korea’s arsenal of weapons of mass destruction has expanded. In the return of Trump, Kim may hope for an opportunity to reduce the American military presence in the region, as well as to weaken growing military ties between the US, Japan and South Korea. During Trump’s first term, the US dialed back military exercises with South Korea as a show of good will.
自那时起，金正恩就僵化了美国的所有对话方式，随着朝鲜大规模杀伤性武器库的扩大，金正恩反而与普京走得更近。特朗普回归后，金正恩可能希望有机会减少美国在该地区的军事存在，并削弱美国、日本和韩国之间日益增长的军事关系。特朗普第一任期内，美国取消了与韩国的军事演习，以示善意。

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban
匈牙利总理****维克托·欧尔班

Orban speaks at a rally in Budapest on Oct. 23.Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg
10 月 23 日，欧尔班在布达佩斯的一次集会上发表讲话。摄影师：Akos Stiller/Bloomberg

The five-term nationalist leader, whom Trump has praised for his strongman-style leadership, had made the boldest bet in Europe on Trump’s victory, praising him even when his return to power seemed a long-shot during criminal prosecutions in the US.
这位五届民族主义领导人因其强人式的领导能力而受到特朗普的赞扬，他对特朗普的胜利做出了欧洲最大胆的赌注，即使在美国刑事起诉期间他重新掌权的可能性似乎不大时，他仍然对特朗普进行了赞扬。

Now Orban is positioning himself as Trump’s man in Europe and is hoping that his personal ties with the next US president will shore up his standing in the EU, where he’s been considered a black sheep for his autocratic leanings and pro-Russian positions. Orban expects Trump to quickly end Russia’s war on Ukraine and to dial back US pressure on Hungary for its democratic backsliding.
现在，欧尔班将自己定位为特朗普在欧洲的人，并希望他与下一任美国总统的个人关系能够巩固他在欧盟的地位，因为他的独裁倾向和亲俄罗斯立场而被认为是害群之马。欧尔班预计特朗普将迅速结束俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争，并减少美国对匈牙利民主倒退的压力。

Read more: Trump’s Man in Europe Gambles on Return of His American Ally
阅读更多：特朗普在欧洲的人押注于他的美国盟友的回归

Argentina’s President Javier Milei
阿根廷总统****哈维尔·米莱

Milei speaks at the presentation of La Libertad Avanza political party in Buenos Aires on Sept. 28.Photographer: Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images
9 月 28 日，米雷在布宜诺斯艾利斯举行的 La Libertad Avanza 政党介绍会上发表讲话。摄影师：Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images

Argentina’s president placed a big bet on Trump's victory and came out on top. Meeting the US leader for the first time in February, Milei didn't miss the opportunity to tell him what “a very great president” he had been while wishing him reelected.
阿根廷总统对特朗普的胜利下了很大的赌注，最终获胜。今年二月，米莱首次与美国领导人会面，他没有错过这个机会，向他讲述自己是一位多么“非常伟大的总统”，同时也祝愿他再次当选。

Milei hopes a second Trump government will tip the scales in favor of Argentina at the International Monetary Fund just as the nation seeks a new deal to replace the record $44 billion program currently in place. The Argentine leader has also been cozying up to Musk — the two have met at least three times this year, and the billionaire has said his companies are looking for ways to invest in Argentina.
米雷希望特朗普第二届政府能够在国际货币基金组织(IMF)中让阿根廷的天平向有利于阿根廷的方向倾斜，而阿根廷正在寻求一项新协议来取代目前创纪录的440亿美元计划。这位阿根廷领导人也一直在讨好马斯克——两人今年至少会面了三次，这位亿万富翁表示，他的公司正在寻找在阿根廷投资的方式。

Losers 失败者

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy
乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基

Zelenskiy speaks during the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Sept. 25.Photographer: Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg
9 月 25 日，泽伦斯基在纽约联合国大会上发表讲话。摄影：Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg

He was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump but that doesn’t disguise the deep anxiety in Kyiv at the Republican’s victory. Ukraine is worried that Trump could apply pressure on it to give up land in peace talks with Russia and cut back financial and military support.
他是最早祝贺特朗普的世界领导人之一，但这并不能掩盖基辅对共和党胜利的深深焦虑。乌克兰担心特朗普可能向其施压，要求其在与俄罗斯的和谈中放弃土地并削减财政和军事支持。

The change in the US administration comes as Russia is slowly making headway in its campaign to wrest more Ukrainian territory in the four regions it’s annexed. While Biden remained reluctant to back Ukraine’s NATO aspirations and refused to allow it to strike deep into Russian territory with Western arms, Trump’s vow to end the war in “24 hours” shows his priority is to exit the crisis.
美国政府的更迭正值俄罗斯在其吞并的四个地区夺取更多乌克兰领土的行动中缓慢取得进展之际。尽管拜登仍然不愿支持乌克兰加入北约的愿望，并拒绝允许乌克兰用西方武器深入俄罗斯领土，但特朗普誓言要在“24小时”内结束战争，这表明他的首要任务是摆脱危机。

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian
伊朗总统****马苏德·佩泽什基安

Pezeshkian attends a meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan on Oct. 23.Photographer: Maxim Shemetov/POOL/AFP/Getty Images
10 月 23 日，佩泽什基安出席在喀山举行的金砖国家峰会期间举行的会议。摄影师：Maxim Shemetov/POOL/AFP/Getty Images

Iran publicly has so far shrugged off the impact of another Trump presidency but it cuts off the path to diplomacy over its nuclear program that Tehran had eyed in a bid to ease the pressure on its sanctions-hit economy.
到目前为止，伊朗公开表示对特朗普再次当选总统的影响不屑一顾，但它切断了德黑兰为了缓解其遭受制裁打击的经济压力而考虑的核计划外交途径。

An important Israel backer, Trump applied a “maximum pressure” policy toward Tehran when he was last in the White House. He may want to isolate Iran even further by hardening strict US penalties that he imposed in his first term. But Trump will also face a region that’s changed in recent years, with Iran repairing ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two countries that supported the “maximum pressure” stance.
作为以色列的重要支持者，特朗普在最后一次入主白宫时对德黑兰实施了“最大压力”政策。他可能想通过加强他在第一个任期内实施的美国严厉惩罚来进一步孤立伊朗。但特朗普还将面临一个近年来发生变化的地区，伊朗正在修复与沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋这两个支持“极限施压”立场的国家的关系。

China’s President Xi Jinping
中国国家主席****习近平

Xi Jinping, centre, attends a meeting to celebrate the 70th founding anniversary of the National People's Congress in Beijing on Sept. 14.Photographer: Ju Peng/Xinhua/Getty Images
9月14日，习近平（中）在北京出席庆祝全国人民代表大会成立70周年会议。摄影：鞠鹏/新华社/盖蒂图片社

For Xi, Trump's win comes at a bad time. His threats of a 60% blanket tariff would decimate trade with America, taking out the one big bright spot holding up China's economy. It also raises more uncertainty just as Xi’s government rolls out a major stimulus package to boost growth and steady investor confidence. And it brings general uncertainty — something the Communist Party never likes. Still, there are some bright spots. Musk — who has extensive business interests in China — has shown he has Trump's ear. The Republican has also questioned whether the US would come to the aid of Taiwan, the self-ruled democracy Beijing claims as its own.
对于习近平来说，特朗普的胜利来得不是时候。他威胁征收 60% 的一揽子关税将削弱与美国的贸易，从而消除支撑中国经济的一大亮点。就在习近平政府推出重大刺激计划以促进经济增长和稳定投资者信心之际，这也带来了更多不确定性。它还带来了普遍的不确定性——这是共产党不喜欢的。尽管如此，还是有一些亮点。马斯克在中国拥有广泛的商业利益，他已经表明他愿意倾听特朗普的意见。这位共和党人还质疑美国是否会援助台湾，北京声称台湾是一个自治民主国家。

Trump’s taunting of the European Union on trade imbalances, and his ambivalence toward US security commitments to Asian allies, could also give Xi some space to mend diplomatic ties that had soured under Biden.
特朗普在贸易失衡问题上嘲笑欧盟，以及他对美国对亚洲盟友的安全承诺的矛盾态度，也可能给习近平一些空间来修复拜登领导下恶化的外交关系。

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba
日本首相****石破茂

Ishiba during a news conference at his party's headquarters in Tokyo on Oct. 28.Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg
10 月 28 日，石破茂在东京政党总部举行的新闻发布会上。摄影：Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

The election win puts new pressure on the newest leader in the Group of Seven trying to hold it together after the long-ruling coalition lost its majority in a recent national election. Trump has repeatedly cited Japan’s trade surplus with the US as a problem and called for Japan to pay more for the US military presence of around 55,000 troops, the largest permanent foreign deployment of American forces. Japan previously fended off calls to pay more for the US military but the current deal is up for renewal in 2026. Japan may also face additional pressure from Trump over its exports of chip making equipment to China, which the US has sought to curtail.
选举的胜利给七国集团的最新领导人带来了新的压力，该国试图在长期执政的联盟在最近的全国选举中失去多数席位后试图将其团结起来。特朗普多次指出日本对美国的贸易顺差是一个问题，并呼吁日本为约55,000名美军的驻军支付更多费用，这是美军在海外最大规模的部署。日本此前曾拒绝向美军支付更多费用，但目前的协议将于 2026 年续签。日本还可能因向中国出口芯片制造设备而面临特朗普的额外压力，而美国一直试图限制这种设备的出口。

Part of Japan’s ability to deal with demands from Trump previously was the close relationship the US leader struck up with the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, often over games of golf. Ishiba isn’t known to play golf, but can point to Japan lowering some of the burden on the US and helping to deepen their alliance.
日本此前之所以能够应对特朗普的要求，部分原因在于美国领导人与已故首相安倍晋三经常通过打高尔夫球而建立的密切关系。石破茂并不擅长打高尔夫球，但他可以指出日本减轻了美国的一些负担，并帮助加深了两国的联盟。

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum
墨西哥总统****克劳迪娅·希因鲍姆

Sheinbaum addresses supporters during an inauguration event in Mexico City on Oct. 1.Photographer: Fred Ramos/Bloomberg
10 月 1 日，希因鲍姆在墨西哥城举行的就职典礼上向支持者发表讲话。摄影师：Fred Ramos/Bloomberg

Mexico is bracing to find out how Trump will carry out his tariffs plan, which could be an obstacle to its goal to increase exports to its northern neighbor through nearshoring, Another source of anxiety is an expected 2026 review of the free trade agreement between North American nations. Immigration is also a hot-button issue, with Trump threatening to put financial pressure on Mexico despite its crackdown that helped the US reduce border migration ahead of the election.
墨西哥正准备了解特朗普将如何执行他的关税计划，这可能会成为其通过近岸外包增加对其北方邻国出口的目标的障碍。另一个令人焦虑的来源是预计 2026 年对北美之间的自由贸易协定进行审查国家。移民也是一个热点问题，特朗普威胁要对墨西哥施加财政压力，尽管墨西哥的镇压行动帮助美国在大选前减少了边境移民。

Former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador had a cordial relationship with Trump, even calling him “a strong and visionary man” a few months before leaving office. This successor has said Mexico’s relations with its northern neighbor but has rebuked Trump for the way he's described trade negotiations that were led by Marcelo Ebrard, now her economy minister.
前总统安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩兹·奥夫拉多尔与特朗普关系融洽，甚至在离任前几个月称他为“一个坚强而有远见的人”。这位继任者谈到了墨西哥与其北方邻国的关系，但谴责了特朗普描述由现任经济部长马塞洛·埃布拉德(Marcelo Ebrard)领导的贸易谈判的方式。

Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer
英国首相****凯尔·斯塔默

Starmer departs 10 Downing Street to attend a weekly questions and answers session at parliament in London on Oct. 9.Photographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
10 月 9 日，斯塔默离开唐宁街 10 号，前往伦敦参加议会每周一次的问答会。摄影师：Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

Few of America’s traditional Western allies are starting from a more difficult place with Trump than the Labour leader. Barely four months on the job, Starmer has already had ugly dust-up with Trump, after the Republican campaign accused his left-leaning party of sending volunteers to campaign for Democrat candidate Kamala Harris.
在美国的传统西方盟友中，很少有哪个国家与工党领袖的关系比特朗普的处境更艰难。在共和党竞选团队指责特朗普的左倾政党派遣志愿者为民主党候选人卡马拉·哈里斯竞选后，斯塔默上任还不到四个月，就已经与特朗普发生了丑陋的争吵。

Starmer called the storming of the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, a “direct attack on democracy” and his foreign secretary, David Lammy, in 2017 called then US president a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathizing sociopath.” More recently, he got into a public feud with Musk, after the billionaire industrial mused on Twitter that far right riots in the UK would lead to civil war.
斯塔默称 2021 年 1 月 6 日袭击美国国会大厦是“对民主的直接攻击”，他的外交大臣戴维·拉米 (David Lammy) 在 2017 年称当时的美国总统是“憎恨女性、同情新纳粹的反社会分子”。最近，这位工业界亿万富翁在推特上沉思英国极右骚乱将导致内战后，他与马斯克发生了公开争执。

While Starmer can tout the UK’s relatively balanced trade with the US and its historically strong levels of defense spending, such political differences may make it hard for him to convince Trump that the Anglo-American relationship is still “special.”
尽管斯塔默可以吹捧英国与美国相对平衡的贸易及其历史上强劲的国防支出水平，但这种政治分歧可能使他很难让特朗普相信英美关系仍然“特殊”。

France’s President Emmanuel Macron
法国总统****埃马纽埃尔·马克龙

Macron at a European Council leaders summit in Brussels on Oct. 17.Photographer: Simon Wohlfahrt/Bloomberg
10 月 17 日，马克龙出席在布鲁塞尔举行的欧洲理事会领导人峰会。摄影师：Simon Wohlfahrt/Bloomberg

Macron already has experience working with Trump, giving him valuable experience compared to his European peers. Indeed, during Trump's first term the two leaders projected a showy alliance, including with a dinner atop the Eiffel tower. “Ready to work together as we did for four years,” Macron posted on X.
马克龙已经有与特朗普合作的经验，与欧洲同行相比，这给了他宝贵的经验。事实上，在特朗普的第一个任期内，两位领导人就展现了一种炫耀的联盟，包括在埃菲尔铁塔顶上共进晚餐。马克龙在 X 上发帖称：“准备好像我们四年来一样一起工作。”

Trump’s return could also give added impetus for Macron’s trademark push to bolster the EU through deeper integration between its economies.
特朗普的回归也可能进一步推动马克龙通过深化经济一体化来支持欧盟的标志性举措。

Despite the optics and the possibility for greater European leverage, there’s little economically to be gained for France and potentially a lot to lose if trade tensions reignite. That could happen quickly if Trump reprises a battle with France over taxing large tech firms like Google. Four years ago, tariffs on sparkling wine, cheese and makeup were only narrowly avoided and the core of that dispute remains unresolved.
尽管存在这样的情况，而且欧洲有可能发挥更大的影响力，但法国在经济上几乎得不到什么好处，如果贸易紧张局势重新爆发，法国可能会损失惨重。如果特朗普再次与法国就对谷歌等大型科技公司征税展开斗争，这种情况可能很快就会发生。四年前，起泡酒、奶酪和化妆品的关税勉强避免，而这场争端的核心仍未解决。

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
巴西总统****路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦

Lula arrives at the National Congress in Santiago on Aug. 5.Photographer: Cristobal Olivares/Bloomberg
卢拉于 8 月 5 日抵达圣地亚哥国民大会。摄影师：Cristobal Olivares/Bloomberg

Trump’s ally in Brazil is former President Jair Bolsonaro, Lula's main political rival. Lula worries that Trump’s return may embolden the conservative political movement led by Bolsonaro, whose supporters attempted an insurrection against his government just one week after his inauguration last year.
特朗普在巴西的盟友是前总统贾尔·博尔索纳罗，他是卢拉的主要政治对手。卢拉担心特朗普的回归可能会助长博尔索纳罗领导的保守派政治运动的气焰，去年博尔索纳罗就职一周后，博尔索纳罗的支持者就试图发动叛乱反对他的政府。

On the eve of the US election, Lula said he was praying for Harris’s victory, adding that Trump had encouraged antidemocratic riots on the Capitol after losing reelection in 2021. Brazil’s finance ministry and central bank are also worried about the impact of Trump's tariffs and public spending plans, given the risks they fuel inflation and increase funding costs globally. Yet Brazil considers that, should Trump impose tariffs on China, the US will need to turn to the Brazilian market for its imports.
美国大选前夕，卢拉表示正在祈祷哈里斯获胜，并补充称特朗普在2021年连任失败后曾怂恿国会大厦发生反民主骚乱。巴西财政部和央行也担心特朗普关税和公共政策带来的影响。考虑到支出计划可能加剧通货膨胀并增加全球融资成本。但巴西认为，如果特朗普对中国征收关税，美国将需要转向巴西市场进口。

Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz
德国总理****奥拉夫·肖尔茨

Scholz during a news conference at the Chancellery in Berlin on Nov. 4.Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg
11 月 4 日，肖尔茨在柏林总理府举行的新闻发布会上。摄影：Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

Trump’s loathing of Angela Merkel put a huge strain on US-German ties and Scholz was her finance minister and successor so it will be hard for him to shake off that connection. Germany has been on the receiving end of Trump’s decades-long fixation with its cars and trade surplus and will find itself in the firing line yet again. Germany’s automotive sector is the biggest industry in Europe’s largest economy and is highly exposed to the steep US import tariffs Trump plans to impose.
特朗普对安格拉·默克尔的厌恶给美德关系带来了巨大压力，而肖尔茨是她的财政部长和继任者，因此他很难摆脱这种联系。德国一直是特朗普几十年来对其汽车和贸易顺差的痴迷的受害者，并将再次发现自己处于火线之中。德国汽车行业是欧洲最大经济体中最大的行业，并且受到特朗普计划征收的高额进口关税的高度影响。

Scholz and his ruling coalition openly favored Harris over Trump as next US president. Trump is unlikely to have missed or forgotten those comments. So Scholz’s humbling message congratulating Trump in an X post is unlikely to wash. Also on the day Trump won, Scholz’s government is falling apart with the exit of his own finance minister, Christian Lindner, and he’s now calling for a snap election.
肖尔茨和他的执政联盟公开支持哈里斯而不是特朗普作为下一任美国总统。特朗普不太可能错过或忘记这些评论。因此，肖尔茨在 X 帖子中祝贺特朗普的谦逊信息不太可能被洗白。同样在特朗普获胜的那天，肖尔茨政府随着他自己的财政部长克里斯蒂安·林德纳的退出而分崩离析，他现在呼吁提前举行选举。