• Top leader has rebuffed analysts’ calls for big bang stimulus最高领导人拒绝了分析师对大规模刺激措施的呼吁
• Experts report less frequent, more rigid talks with officials专家报告称，与官员的会谈频率降低，对话更加僵化

Zhou XiaochuanPhotographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg摄影师：Chris J. Ratcliffe/彭博社

By Bloomberg News 2024年7月23日 at GMT+8 06:00

Drinking a glass of wine over lunch, Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s central bank governor at the time, talked freely as he was peppered with questions from economists at Western banks.时任中国央行行长周小川在午餐时喝了一杯酒，在西方银行经济学家的提问中畅所欲言。

The laid-back atmosphere at the April 2015 meeting typified Zhou, a fluent English speaker who served as central bank governor for more than 15 years. He held exchanges every few quarters with analysts that offered China’s leadership the chance to hear different perspectives, according to a person familiar with the situation who — along with others Bloomberg spoke to — asked not to be identified discussing private meetings.2015 年 4 月会议上的轻松气氛是周恩来的典型代表，他能说一口流利的英语，担任央行行长超过 15 年。据一位知情人士透露，他每隔几个季度就会与分析师进行一次交流，为中国领导层提供了听取不同观点的机会。这位知情人士以及其他接受彭博社采访的人士都要求匿名讨论私人会议。

During President Xi Jinping’s first decade in power, policymakers sat down regularly with foreign economists and other analysts, in exchanges that were sometimes lively, according to people familiar with such meetings. Now, foreign experts only get irregular meetings with officials, which lack the meaningful debate of previous years, according to several people who have attended such talks.据知情人士透露，在习近平主席执政的第一个十年里，政策制定者定期与外国经济学家和其他分析人士坐下来，交流有时很活跃。据几位参加过此类会谈的人士透露，现在外国专家只能与官员进行不定期的会面，缺乏往年的有意义的辩论。

Chinese economists say they can’t tell whether their proposals are being heeded, with officials mostly nodding and taking notes in meetings, the people added. Comments from prominent analysts are deemed noise disrupting from Xi’s top-down messaging, said one person familiar with the leadership’s thinking.知情人士补充说，中国经济学家表示，他们无法判断他们的建议是否得到重视，官员们在会议上大多点头并做笔记。一位熟悉领导层想法的人士表示，知名分析师的评论被认为是干扰习近平自上而下的信息传递的噪音。

“Xi Jinping is now the chief economist of China,” said Stephen Roach, former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman, who was invited to attend an annual summit with senior officials and global executives in Beijing this year.“习近平现在是中国的首席经济学家，”摩根士丹利亚洲区前董事长史蒂芬·罗奇(Stephen Roach)表示，他今年受邀参加在北京举行的高级官员和全球高管年度峰会。

China’s most-powerful leader since Mao Zedong has been clear about his plan for advanced manufacturing to propel his nation’s $17 trillion economy, as he steers the slumping property market to firmer ground. Xi reaffirmed that path at a once-a-term meeting on long-term strategy last week, rebuffing economist calls for policymakers to focus more on boosting consumer sentiment to rebalance growth.这位自毛泽东以来中国最有权势的领导人在带领低迷的房地产市场走稳的同时，也明确了自己的先进制造业计划，以推动中国17万亿美元的经济发展。习近平在上周召开的长期战略会议上重申了这一路径，拒绝了经济学家要求政策制定者更多地关注提振消费者信心以重新平衡增长的呼吁。

That reflects a mismatch in how Xi and market economists view China’s situation: Beijing is betting on innovations such as electric cars and solar panels to boost growth and spending. Economists and foreign officials including US Treasury Chief Janet Yellen argue Chinese consumers won’t reach deeper into their wallets without a better social security net.这反映出习近平和市场经济学家对中国形势的看法不一致：北京正押注于电动汽车和太阳能电池板等创新，以促进增长和支出。经济学家和包括美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦在内的外国官员认为，如果没有更好的社会保障网，中国消费者就不会掏更多钱。

Xi has refused to stimulate consumption with direct handouts, and his government has remained adamant about avoiding the big stimulus that fueled previous boom-and-bust cycles. The top leader has also made national security a priority, devoting $47.5 billion to a chip fund charged with ensuring China’s national champions can build cutting-edge semiconductors after the US moved to cut off supply.习近平拒绝通过直接施舍来刺激消费，他的政府仍然坚决避免采取导致之前繁荣与萧条周期的大规模刺激措施。这位最高领导人还将国家安全作为优先事项，向一个芯片基金投入了 475 亿美元，该基金负责确保在美国采取行动切断供应后，中国的国家龙头企业能够制造尖端半导体。

Xi believes it was policies pushed for by pro-market voices that caused many of the problems he inherited when he came to power in 2012, such as decades of debt-fueled growth, said Neil Thomas, a fellow for Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.亚洲协会中国政治研究员尼尔·托马斯 (Neil Thomas) 表示，习近平认为，亲市场声音推动的政策导致了他 2012 年上台时接手的许多问题，比如几十年来债务拉动的增长。政策研究所中国分析中心。

“The danger for investors is China’s leaders become increasingly out of touch with their concerns and implement policies that do little to improve economic conditions,” Thomas added. “Xi’s supreme leadership makes it risky for his advisors to share their own thoughts with analysts and scholars.”托马斯补充道：“投资者面临的危险是，中国领导人越来越脱离他们的担忧，所实施的政策对改善经济状况无济于事。” “习近平的最高领导使得他的顾问与分析人士和学者分享自己的想法面临风险。”

Consumer Spending Underperforms Despite Fiscal AidConsumer Spending Underperforms Despite Fiscal Aid

Monthly factory output and retail sales (December 2019 = 100)Monthly factory output and retail sales (December 2019 = 100)

Source: Bloomberg Economics based on National Bureau of StatisticsSource: Bloomberg Economics based on National Bureau of Statistics

When Xi consolidated power with a precedent-defying third term in 2022, he installed a coterie of loyalists to top policymaking positions cementing his control over the world’s No. 2 economy.当习近平在 2022 年以打破先例的第三个任期巩固权力时，他任命了一批忠诚者担任最高决策职位，巩固了他对世界第二大经济体的控制。

They replaced a generation of trained economists including former Premier Li Keqiang, who came from a rival center of power to Xi and was associated with a more market-friendly vision. During the pandemic, for example, he advocated for balancing lockdowns with keeping business humming.他们取代了一代训练有素的经济学家，其中包括前总理李克强，李克强来自与习近平竞争的权力中心，并与更加市场友好的愿景联系在一起。例如，在大流行期间，他主张在封锁和保持业务繁荣之间取得平衡。

Xi also retired Harvard-educated Liu He, who has built trust with advisors throughout his career, especially during his years with government advisory bodies, according to a person familiar. As vice premier in charge of economic and financial affairs, Liu’s policies earned him a reputation as the architect of his nation’s engagement with capitalist reforms.据一位知情人士透露，习近平还让毕业于哈佛大学的刘鹤退休，刘鹤在整个职业生涯中，特别是在政府咨询机构任职期间，与顾问建立了信任。作为负责经济和金融事务的副总理，刘鹤的政策为他赢得了国家参与资本主义改革的设计师的声誉。

The influence of Liu’s replacement, He Lifeng, is less clearly defined. Best known for working alongside Xi for decades in coastal provinces, his public speeches and scant writings on economic theory provide little insight into his policy beliefs. Even those in the system don’t know who He is influenced by or what guides his economic thinking, said one economist at a research firm.刘的继任者何立峰的影响力尚不明确。他因在沿海省份与习近平共事数十年而闻名，但他的公开演讲和经济理论方面的著作很少，让人无法深入了解他的政策信念。一家研究公司的一位经济学家表示，即使是体制内的人也不知道他受到了谁的影响，也不知道他的经济思维是由什么引导的。

Janet Yellen, US Treasury secretary, and He Lifeng, China’s vice premier, during a meeting in San Francisco, California, US, on Friday, Nov. 10, 2023.2023 年 11 月 10 日星期五，美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和中国国务院副总理何立峰在美国加利福尼亚州旧金山举行会议。Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg摄影师：大卫·保罗·莫里斯/彭博社

That decrease in dialogue with foreign experts is part of a broader pattern of reduced openness as tensions with the US rise. China is increasingly hiding data deemed unflattering to the economy, last year holding back the youth jobless rate for months after a spike. Authorities have also pressed analysts to avoid writing negative commentary and warned against using certain terms, including deflation.随着与美国的紧张关系加剧，与外国专家对话的减少是开放程度降低的更广泛模式的一部分。中国越来越多地隐瞒被认为对经济不利的数据，去年青年失业率在飙升后数月内一直处于低位。当局还敦促分析师避免发表负面评论，并警告不要使用某些术语，包括通货紧缩。

For US officials, He’s close ties to China’s most-important man means Washington is at least confident it knows where the government in Beijing stands after speaking with the vice premier, according to a person familiar with such matters. Foreign executives see him as quick to action minor requests, said Victor Shih, who heads the 21st Century China Center think tank. But ultimately, “he’s someone who makes the vision of Xi Jinping into reality.”一位知情人士表示，对于美国官员来说，贺建奎与中国最重要人物的密切关系意味着华盛顿至少有信心在与副总理交谈后了解北京政府的立场。 21世纪中国中心智库负责人施维德(Victor Shih)表示，外国高管认为他对一些小要求都能迅速采取行动。但最终，“他是将习近平的愿景变成现实的人。”

China’s No. 2 official, who traditionally oversees the economy, is also shifting gear. While Premier Li Qiang has maintained regular seminars with economists, those meetings have omitted the presence of experts affiliated with a foreign institution since he took office last year.传统上负责经济事务的中国二号官员也在转变态度。尽管李强总理一直定期与经济学家举行研讨会，但自去年上任以来，这些会议都没有外国机构的专家出席。

Li QiangPhotographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg摄影师：沉其来/彭博社

In March, Li ended a 30-year tradition for the premier to hold an annual press conference. The removal of a rare opportunity to ask a top official policy questions sent a clear message: All eyes should be on Xi.今年3月，李克强结束了总理30年召开年度新闻发布会的传统。取消向高级官员提出政策问题的难得机会发出了明确的信息：所有人的目光都应该集中在习近平身上。

Days later, state media published a sweeping 6,000-word profile trumpeting the Chinese leader as a pro-market reformer on par with Deng Xiaoping, who opened China’s economy to the world more than four decades ago. What role the top leader had in the destruction of the $100 billion tutoring sector or abrupt suspension of a would-be record initial public offering in 2021 were not mentioned.几天后，官方媒体发表了一篇长达 6000 字的简介，将这位中国领导人宣传为与四十多年前向世界开放中国经济的邓小平齐名的亲市场改革者。没有提及这位最高领导人在摧毁 1000 亿美元的辅导行业或突然暂停 2021 年创纪录的首次公开募股方面发挥了什么作用。

If any official was tempted to question Xi, the consequences are even greater in his third term. At the last leadership reshuffle, the party enshrined a new slogan — the “Two Upholds” — into its constitution, making any deviation from the big boss cause for discipline. For reform-minded officials, there’s little incentive to leave a paper trail of their thinking.如果有任何官员试图质疑习近平，那么在他的第三个任期内，后果会更加严重。在上次领导班子改组中，共产党将一个新的口号——“两个坚持”写入了党章，任何偏离大老板的行为都会受到纪律处分。对于有改革意识的官员来说，没有什么动力留下他们的想法的书面记录。

“Investors and analysts now have nothing to go on beyond Xi Jinping speeches,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist with the Australian National University’s Taiwan Studies Program. “But as the top leader rather than first-line manager, Xi will be speaking from a 30,000 feet perspective, rather than espousing policy specifics.”“除了习近平的讲话，投资者和分析师现在没有什么可看的，”澳大利亚国立大学台湾研究项目的政治学家宋文迪说。 “但作为最高领导人而不是一线管理者，习近平将从三万英尺的角度发表讲话，而不是支持政策细节。”

— With assistance from John Liu, Jenni Marsh, Rebecca Choong Wilkins, Christopher Condon, Tania Chen, and Katia Dmitrieva— 在 John Liu、Jenni Marsh、Rebecca Choong Wilkins、Christopher Condon、Tania Chen 和 Katia Dmitrieva 的协助下