KEITH BRADSHER

2024年5月15日

中国宁波的极氪纯电动车工厂，摄于上月。 GILLES SABRIÉ FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

For decades, China has moved methodically to dominate ever more industries, from toys and clothing in the 1980s to semiconductors and renewable energy today. China now produces a third of the world’s manufactured goods — more than the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea and Britain combined. Its trade surplus in these goods is equal to a tenth of the entire Chinese economy.

几十年来，中国一直在有条不紊地主导越来越多的行业，从20世纪80年代的玩具和服装行业，到今天的半导体和可再生能源。中国现在生产三分之一的全球制成品，超过美国、德国、日本、韩国和英国生产的总和。来自这些商品的贸易顺差相当于整个中国经济的10%。

And those exports keep increasing, causing alarm about China’s manufacturing “overcapacity” among its biggest trading partners. Top leaders in the United States and Europe have begun calling on China to dial back how much it sells to the world, and to increase its imports. On Tuesday, President Biden raised U.S. tariffs sharply on imports from China of electric cars, solar panels and other high-tech manufactured goods.

这些出口的不断增长已在中国最大的贸易伙伴中引发了关于其制造业“产能过剩”的担忧。美国和欧洲的最高领导人已开始呼吁中国减少向世界出口，并增加进口。拜登总统周二大幅提高了美国对中国进口电动汽车、太阳能电池板和其他高科技制成品的关税。

在宁波极氪电动汽车装配线上的工人。 GILLES SABRIÉ FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

China’s industrial policies had a consistent focus.

中国的产业政策有个始终如一的重点。

Almost a decade ago, China launched an ambitious program called Made in China 2025. The plan was for China to replace key imports in 10 advanced manufacturing industries by making its own products. The state-controlled banking system directed loans to those key sectors.

差不多在十年前，中国启动了一项名为《中国制造2025》的雄心勃勃计划，目标是让中国在10个先进制造领域用本国制造的产品取代关键的进口产品。国家控制的银行系统将贷款引导到这些关键行业。

广告

Fast forward 10 years, and China’s domestic economy is hurting mostly because of a housing market crash. Leaders in Beijing have ordered increased lending for many of the same manufacturing sectors to compensate for slower consumer spending, and are stepping up exports.

十年很快就要过去，中国国内的经济正在受到主要是来自房地产市场崩溃的拖累。政府领导人已下令增加对其中许多制造业部门的贷款，以弥补消费者支出放缓的影响，同时加大出口力度。

For China’s economic policymakers, the strategy is familiar.

对中国的经济政策制定者来说，这个战略并不陌生。

It works like this: Regulators restrict the investment options of Chinese households, which have little choice but to deposit enormous sums of money into banks at low interest rates. The banks then lend the money at low rates to start-ups and other businesses. According to China’s central bank, net lending for industry swelled to $670 billion last year from $83 billion in 2019.

这个战略的运作方式是：监管机构限制中国家庭的投资选择，于是老百姓只好把大量的钱存入银行，尽管存款利率很低。然后，银行把这些资金以低利率贷给初创公司和其他企业。据中国央行的数据，工业净贷款大幅增长，已从2019年的830亿美元增加到去年的6700亿美元。

Beijing instructs local governments to help the chosen industries. The assistance takes the form of cheap land for factories, new highways for freight trucks, bullet train lines and other infrastructure.

中央政府指示地方政府为重点行业提供帮助。帮助的形式包括为工厂提供廉价土地、为货运车辆修建新的高速公路，以及高速铁路和其他基础设施。

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Kiel, Germany, calculated in a study that more than 99 percent of Chinese companies whose stock traded publicly received direct government subsidies in 2022.

位于德国基尔的基尔世界经济研究所在一项研究计算显示，中国政府2022年为超过99%的中国上市公司提供了直接补贴。

China keeps factory wages low, which helps the competitiveness of its manufacturers. Residence permits limit the ability of rural families to move permanently to cities, where they would qualify for better job benefits. Independent labor unions are barred, and would-be organizers are detained by the police.

中国压低工厂工人的工资，这有助于提高本国制造商的竞争力。中国的户口制度限制了农村家庭搬到城市永久居住的能力，如果农民能获得城市户口的话，他们将有资格享受更好的劳动福利。中国禁止独立工会，警察会逮捕有意组织者。

Those programs have helped China grow in many industries, fanning fears in the United States and elsewhere that factory jobs could be lost. American tariffs are now targeting exports in some of China’s largest and fastest-growing industries.

补贴项目帮助了中国许多行业的增长，引发了美国和其他国家对本国工厂的工作岗位可能流失的担忧。美国的关税目前针对的是中国一些规模最大、增长最快行业的出口。

在上个月的北京车展上展出的小鹏电动汽车。 GILLES SABRIÉ FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Car exports rose fast.

汽车出口快速增长。

The auto sector is a prime example of how China has been able to move so fast to gain manufacturing dominance.

汽车行业是中国如何能够如此迅速地获得制造业主导地位的一个典型例子。

广告

Just four years ago, China was a weakling in car exports, shipping one million low-priced cars a year mainly to less affluent markets in the Mideast and elsewhere. China has since surpassed Japan and Germany by a wide margin to become the world’s largest car exporter. Shipments are running at an annual pace of nearly six million cars, sport utility vehicles, pickups and vans.

仅四年前，中国还是一个汽车出口弱国，每年只向中东和其他不太富裕地区的市场出口100万辆廉价汽车。现在，中国已大大超过了日本和德国，成为全球最大的汽车出口国。中国现在每年出口的汽车、运动型多用途车、皮卡和货车接近600万辆。

Three-quarters of these exports, particularly to Russia and to developing countries, are cars with gasoline engines, which fewer buyers in China want. Battery electric cars are cheaper to buy in China, and electricity to charge them is cheaper than gasoline.

这些出口车中的四分之三（尤其是出口到俄罗斯和发展中国家的）是汽油发动机汽车，中国国内想买这种汽车的人较少，国内的电动汽车售价较低，而且给车充电要比给车加油便宜。

China’s top leaders have heavily subsidized the research and production of battery electric cars for the past 15 years.

中国的领导人已在过去15年里为纯电动汽车的研究和生产提供了大量补贴。

Companies are ramping up their manufacturing of battery electric cars and building a fleet of ships to export them to distant markets, particularly in Europe. Automakers are introducing 71 models of electric cars in China this year, many of them loaded with advanced features and selling for less than comparably equipped cars in the West.

中国的纯电动汽车制造商正在扩大它们的产能，建造将这些汽车运往遥远市场（尤其是欧洲）的船队。汽车制造商今年将在中国推出71款电动汽车，其中许多配有大量先进功能，但售价却低于西方同类配置的汽车。

宁波极氪电动汽车工厂的充电站。 GILLES SABRIÉ FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

China now leads in producing electric car batteries.

中国目前在电动汽车电池生产上处于世界领先地位。

China started off far behind the West in electric car batteries — and Chinese officials knew it.

中国在电动汽车电池生产上起步时曾远远落后于西方，而中国官员们知道这一点。

广告

By 2011, Beijing had begun requiring Western companies to transfer key technologies to operations in China if they wanted consumers in China to receive the same subsidies for imported electric cars that were being offered for cars made in China. Without the subsidies, automakers like General Motors and Ford Motor could not compete with electric cars made in China.

中国政府早在2011年就开始要求西方公司把关键技术转让给它们的中国合作伙伴，如果它们想让中国消费者在购买进口电动汽车时获得与国产电动车相同的补贴的话。要是没有补贴，通用汽车和福特等制造商将无法与中国制造的电动汽车竞争。

Multinational automakers responded by pressuring their South Korean suppliers, which at the time led the electric car battery industry to build factories in China. Beijing went further in 2016 and declared that even electric cars made in China would qualify for consumer subsidies  only if they used batteries from factories owned by Chinese companies. Even automakers like South Korea’s Hyundai abandoned the Chinese factories of South Korean battery manufacturers and switched their contracts to Chinese battery companies like CATL.

跨国汽车制造商做出的回应是向韩国供应商施压，让它们在中国建厂，韩国当时曾在电动汽车的电池生产上领先。中国政府在2016年进一步宣布，即使是中国制造的电动汽车，它们需要使用中国公司拥有的工厂生产的电池，才有资格获得政府为消费者购车提供的补贴。这个政策导致汽车制造商（甚至包括韩国的现代汽车）放弃了韩国电池制造商在中国的工厂生产的电池，将合同转给宁德时代等中国电池制造商。

Chinese companies now produce the majority of the world’s electric car batteries. Technological breakthroughs over the last several years have meant the cars can achieve greater range.

中国公司目前为全球大部分电动汽车生产电池。电池技术在过去几年的突破意味着电动汽车的续航里程更长。

According to a new report from the Atlantic Council, a research group in Washington, China’s exports of lithium-ion batteries leaped to $65 billion last year from $13 billion in 2019. Nearly two-thirds of these exports went to Europe and North America. Much of the rest went to East Asia, where the batteries are often assembled into products that end up being sold to Europe or North America.

根据华盛顿的研究团体大西洋理事会的一份新报告，中国的锂离子电池出口额已从2019年的130亿美元跃升到去年的650亿美元。这些电池中有近三分之二出口到欧洲和北美。其余的主要销往东亚，通常在那里组装成产品后，最终销往欧洲或北美。

China turned to solar to reduce reliance on oil imports.

中国转向太阳能以减少对石油进口的依赖。

China has long made solar panels a top priority to limit its dependence on imports of oil and other fossil fuels along sea lanes controlled by the United States or India, another geopolitical rival. A tenfold expansion of China’s solar panel manufacturing capacity from 2008 to 2012 caused the world price of solar panels to drop about 75 percent. Many American and European factories closed.

中国长期以来一直将太阳能电池板作为首要任务，以减少对进口石油和其他化石燃料的依赖，这些进口使用由美国、或中国的另一个地缘政治对手印度控制的海上航线。中国太阳能电池板的产能在2008年至2012年间扩大了十倍，导致世界太阳能电池板价格下降了约75%，也导致了美国和欧洲的许多工厂关闭。

广告

Three of China’s largest solar panel producers suffered financial collapses of their own as prices plunged, saddling banks with losses on loans. Smaller rivals in China were able to buy their factories for fractions of the original construction cost. This second generation of companies was then able to make panels more cheaply and invest in cutting-edge research.

随着太阳能电池板的价格暴跌，中国的三大生产商遭受了自身的财务崩溃，让银行背负了贷款损失。中国规模较小的竞争对手们只需用比当初的建设成本少得多钱就购买了它们的工厂。这些第二代的公司后来能以更低的成本制造太阳能电池板，并投资尖端技术研究。

Chinese companies make almost all of the world’s solar panels. The country’s exports of solar cells, which the Biden administration is raising tariffs on, have more than doubled in the past four years, to $44 billion last year. China is ramping up twice as fast its exports of solar wafers, a key component.

中国的公司现在几乎生产世界上所有的太阳能电池板。中国的光伏电池出口在过去四年中增长了一倍多，去年达到了440亿美元，拜登政府正在提高对中国光伏电池征收的关税。中国也在以两倍的速度增加本国光伏硅片的出口，光伏硅片是光伏电池的关键组成部件。

U.S. limits on chips promoted a China shift.

美国对芯片出口的限制促进了中国改变做法。

Export controls by the United States have limited the sale to China of the most advanced semiconductors, which make up about 5 percent of the market, and the technologies to manufacture them. But Chinese companies, benefiting from enormous government subsidies, have become more competitive in the other 95 percent of the market.

美国的出口管制限制了向中国出口最先进的半导体及其制造技术，这类产品约占半导体市场的5%。但在政府巨额补贴的帮助下，中国企业已在占该市场95%的其他产品上变得更具竞争力。

The chips made by China are used in a range of equipment in the West, including many cars. Even gasoline engines in cars are controlled by semiconductor often made in China.

中国制造的芯片被用于西方的各种设备，包括许多汽车。就连汽车的汽油发动机通常也由中国制造的半导体控制。

中国政府声称，本国不断增长的贸易顺差是中国企业提高竞争力的合理结果。 GILLES SABRIÉ FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Why is the West acting now?

西方为什么现在要采取行动？

The November election has put political pressure on President Biden to show that he is taking a tough stand toward China.

美国今年11月的大选已给拜登总统带来了政治压力，让他需要表现出他正在对中国采取强硬立场。

广告

Trade issues have also become enmeshed with security concerns. Russia’s war in Ukraine is showing that wars may be decided in part by which side can make more drones, artillery shells and vehicles.

贸易问题也已与安全担忧紧密联系在一起。俄罗斯对乌克兰发动的战争正在让人们看到，战争的胜败也许部分取决于哪一方能制造更多的无人机、炮弹和车辆。

China contends that its rising trade surpluses are the legitimate result of the competitiveness of Chinese companies.

中国声称，本国不断增长的贸易顺差是中国企业提高竞争力的合理结果。

Jorge Toledo Albiñana, the European Union’s ambassador to China, disagreed. “In Europe,” he said in a speech last week, “there is increasing pressure to react to what is widely seen as a worsening lack of level playing for our companies and investors.”

欧盟欧华代表团团长庹尧诲(Jorge Toledo Albiñana)不同意这个说法。他在上周的一个讲话中说，“在欧洲，作出反应的压力越来越大，因为人们普遍认为，我们的公司和投资者面临的不公平竞争在日益恶化。”