- Imports in dollar terms declined 0.6% in November from 2022
11 月份以美元计价的进口比 2022 年下降了 0.6 - Data defies expectations for strong performance at year end
数据不负众望，年底表现强劲
Shipping containers and gantry cranes at Tianjin port in Tianjin.Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
天津港的海运集装箱和龙门吊：Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
By Bloomberg News 作者：布隆伯格新闻 2023年12月7日 at GMT+8 11:10
China’s imports unexpectedly shrank in November from a Covid-hit period a year ago, while exports edged up from a low base, suggesting the nation’s slowing economy still hasn’t bottomed out.
中国 11 月份的进口出乎意料地较去年同期有所萎缩，而出口则在低基数上有所回升，这表明中国经济放缓的势头仍未见底。
Imports in dollar terms declined 0.6% after clocking an improvement the previous month, according to official data released Thursday. That was worse than economists’ consensus forecast of a 3.9% gain.
周四公布的官方数据显示，以美元计价的进口在上个月有所改善后下降了 0.6%。这低于经济学家一致预测的 3.9% 的增幅。
Overseas shipments rose 0.5% from a year ago, slightly better than the consensus estimate of no change, and marked the first year-on-year expansion since April. The resulting trade surplus was $68.39 billion.
海外发货量同比增长 0.5%，略好于一致预期的持平，这也是自 4 月份以来首次同比增长。贸易顺差为 683.9 亿美元。
“Domestic demand is not really improving, even as we compared it to a low base last year,” said Woei Chen Ho, an economist at United Overseas Bank Ltd. “There is also no discernible improvement trend in exports despite a slightly better than expected export growth in November. Taken together, it suggests a weak recovery trend in China.”
"大华银行（United Overseas Bank Ltd.）的经济学家 Woei Chen Ho 说："国内需求并没有真正改善，即使与去年的低基数相比也是如此。"尽管 11 月份出口增长略好于预期，但出口也没有明显的改善趋势。综合来看，这表明中国经济复苏趋势疲软。
The data will fan concerns over China’s economic outlook and could prompt calls for stimulus to bolster domestic spending. Policymakers’ efforts to step up growth this year have focused more on stimulating supply and stabilizing the property market rather generating demand.
这些数据将引发人们对中国经济前景的担忧，并可能促使人们呼吁采取刺激措施来增加国内支出。政策制定者今年为加快经济增长所做的努力更多地侧重于刺激供应和稳定房地产市场，而不是刺激需求。
An expected seasonal surge in trade also failed to deliver because of weak global demand. Exports are usually stronger in the final months of a year, due to a boost in demand ahead of the Christmas and holiday season overseas. Disruptions from the pandemic in November last year resulted in a steep contraction in trade, which makes the headline numbers this year look better by comparison.
由于全球需求疲软，预期中的季节性贸易激增也未能实现。每年的最后几个月，由于圣诞节和海外假日季前的需求增长，出口通常会走强。去年 11 月大流行病的影响导致贸易急剧萎缩，这使得今年的主要数据相比之下显得更好。
China’s exports next year could benefit from a “global upswing” in tech demand, as well as low domestic inflation and a weak yuan, Nomura Holdings Inc. economists wrote in a note Wednesday. But it’s “still too early to call the bottom” for growth, they said. “There might yet be another economic dip in spring 2024 due to a worsening property sector.’
野村控股公司（Nomura Holdings Inc. ）的经济学家周三在一份报告中写道，中国明年的出口将受益于 "全球上扬 "的科技需求、低国内通胀和疲软的人民币。但他们表示，现在为经济增长 "探底还为时过早"。"由于房地产行业的恶化，2024 年春季可能会再次出现经济下滑。
Reaction in the stock market was muted Thursday as much of the softness was already priced in. A gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong largely maintained its earlier losses as sentiment took a hit after Moody’s lowered its outlook on a number of banks and placed some local government financing vehicles on review for a downgrade.
周四股市反应平淡，因为大部分疲软因素已被计入价格。穆迪（Moody's）下调了多家银行的评级展望，并将一些地方政府融资工具的评级下调，从而打击了市场情绪。
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was down about 1.7%, among the worst performing key indexes in Asia Pacific.
恒生中国企业指数下跌约 1.7%，是亚太地区表现最差的主要指数之一。
Just a day after Moody’s Investors Service unveiled a bearish stance on China’s sovereign bonds, the ratings company cut its outlook for eight Chinese banks to negative from stable. On Wednesday, Moody’s also cut its outlook on Hong Kong and Macau and placed 26 Chinese local government financing vehicles on review for downgrade. James Mayger reports on Bloomberg Television.
就在穆迪投资者服务公司（Moody's Investors Service）宣布看跌中国主权债券的立场后一天，该评级公司又将八家中国银行的评级展望从稳定下调至负面。周三，穆迪还下调了香港和澳门的评级展望，并对26家中国地方政府融资工具进行了降级审查。詹姆斯-梅杰（James Mayger）在彭博电视上报道。
Investors are watching for signs of how President Xi Jinping’s government will boost economic activity in 2024, after this year’s post-pandemic recovery struggled. China is expected to convene two key economic policy meetings this month, where top leaders may signal a more pro-growth stance and hint at the kind of stimulus they are planning.
在今年大流行病后的复苏举步维艰之后，投资者正在关注习近平主席领导的政府将如何在2024年促进经济活动的迹象。预计中国将在本月召开两次重要的经济政策会议，届时最高领导人可能会发出更加支持增长的信号，并暗示他们计划采取何种刺激措施。
After soaring demand during the pandemic helped drive China’s economy, net exports has turned into a drag for growth this year, as demand for goods wanes.
在大流行病期间需求飙升推动了中国经济的发展之后，随着商品需求的减弱，净出口已成为今年经济增长的阻力。
Capital Economics analyst Zichun Huang said in a Thursday note that November’s uptick in exports was likely driven by price cuts. “This is not sustainable and is negatively affecting firms’ profit margins, which have dropped near to levels not seen since at least 2010,” she added.
凯投宏观（Capital Economics）分析师黄紫纯（Zichun Huang）在周四的一份报告中指出，11月份出口的回升很可能是受到降价的推动。"她补充说："这种情况是不可持续的，对企业的利润率产生了负面影响，利润率已降至至少2010年以来的最低水平。
Exports to the US and European Union have fallen by over 10% so far this year from the same period last year, while those to Russia surged 50%, according to the official data. Imports of steel plunged 27% so far in 2023 as the property downturn deepened, while chips declined by 16.5%.
官方数据显示，今年迄今为止，对美国和欧盟的出口比去年同期下降了10%以上，而对俄罗斯的出口则激增了50%。随着房地产衰退的加深，2023 年迄今为止的钢材进口量骤降了 27%，而芯片则下降了 16.5%。
“It is unclear if exports can contribute as a growth pillar into next year,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management Ltd. “The European and US economies are cooling. China still needs to depend on the domestic demand as the main driver for growth in 2024.”
"品点资产管理有限公司（Pinpoint Asset Management Ltd）首席经济学家张智威说："出口能否作为增长支柱在明年做出贡献，现在还不清楚。"欧美经济正在降温。中国仍需依靠内需作为2024年经济增长的主要动力。"
