The miscalculations of Israel’s and Gaza’s leaders are being laid bare 以色列和加沙领导人的错误判断暴露无遗

image: getty images 图片：盖蒂图片社

2023 年 10 月 12 日 | KFAR AZZA

The first hours were chaos. Residents of southern Israel, near the border with Gaza, woke to the sound of incoming rockets and mortars. They rushed to shelters—a grim routine in this part of the country, but a routine nonetheless. Then, a few minutes later, they heard gunfire drawing steadily closer and shouting in Arabic. That was not routine at all.
最初几个小时一片混乱。以色列南部靠近加沙边境的居民被不断射来的火箭弹和迫击炮弹声惊醒。他们急忙跑向避难所--在这个国家的这个地区，这是一种严峻的例行公事，但仍然是例行公事。几分钟后，他们听到枪声越来越近，还有阿拉伯语的喊叫声。这完全不是例行公事。

Nor were the unimaginable scenes outside their homes, snippets of which began to trickle out on social media: Palestinian militants on the bed of a pickup truck, driving through an Israeli town firing at passers-by; a pile of bodies at a bus stop, another at an army post. The morning dragged on, and no help arrived. Frantic Israelis called television-news shows from their safe rooms and asked, in hushed tones, where their army was.
社交媒体上开始流传的一些片段也无法想象他们家门口的场景：巴勒斯坦武装分子坐在一辆皮卡车的车床上，驾车穿过以色列的一个小镇，向路人开火；公交车站有一堆尸体，军队哨所也有一堆尸体。一上午过去了，没有救援人员到来。疯狂的以色列人在安全的房间里给电视新闻节目打电话，用低沉的声音询问他们的军队在哪里。

Then, no less shocking, came the reports of abductions. A mother said her two sons, one of them just 12 years old, had been kidnapped and dragged across the border. A video showed an elderly woman, her stiff smile belying her shock, paraded through the streets of Gaza on a golf cart, an armed man seated behind her.
同样令人震惊的还有关于绑架的报道。一位母亲说，她的两个儿子（其中一个年仅 12 岁）被绑架并拖过边界。一段视频显示，一名老妇人坐在一辆高尔夫球车上在加沙街头游行，身后坐着一名武装人员，僵硬的笑容掩盖了她的震惊。

The death toll went up and up and up. Almost a week later, authorities were still counting bodies. In Be’eri, a small kibbutz of around 1,000 people, militants went door-to-door and slaughtered some 10% of the population. An even greater number may have been killed in Kfar Azza, eight kilometres to the north.
死亡人数不断上升。近一周后，当局仍在清点尸体。在贝埃里，一个约有 1 000 人的小型基布兹，武装分子挨家挨户屠杀了约 10%的人口。在北面八公里外的 Kfar Azza，可能有更多的人被杀害。

For Israelis October 7th was a day without precedent. More than 1,300 people were killed, in a country of just 10m. The death toll exceeds the number of Israelis killed in all violence between Israelis and Palestinians over the prior 20 years. Another 3,300 people were wounded. Israelis had thought Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group that controls Gaza, was a manageable threat. Now it has carried out the deadliest terror attack in their country’s history. The mightiest army in the Middle East lost control of its own towns, and needed days to regain it. Authorities have recovered the bodies of at least 1,500 Palestinian militants—more than a battalion’s worth of gunmen who managed to flood across the supposedly well-defended boundary.
对以色列人来说，10 月 7 日是一个没有先例的日子。在这个只有 1 000 万人口的国家里，有 1 300 多人丧生。死亡人数超过了过去 20 年以色列人和巴勒斯坦人之间发生的所有暴力事件中以色列人的死亡人数。另有 3 300 人受伤。以色列人曾认为，控制加沙的巴勒斯坦伊斯兰组织哈马斯是一个可控的威胁。现在，它发动了以色列历史上最致命的恐怖袭击。这支中东最强大的军队失去了对自己城镇的控制，需要数天时间才能重新夺回控制权。当局已经找到了至少 1500 名巴勒斯坦武装分子的尸体--这些枪手超过了一个营的兵力，他们设法越过了本应防守严密的边界。

As shock gives way to anger, the immediate question is how Israel will respond. It has already begun a campaign of retaliatory air strikes, which has killed more than 1,200 Palestinians, many of them civilians, and displaced more than 300,000. Israel will not stop there, although its military options are unappealing. There is bound to be more suffering for both Israelis and Palestinians in the weeks ahead.
震惊过后是愤怒，当务之急是以色列将如何回应。以色列已经开始了报复性空袭行动，空袭已造成 1 200 多名巴勒斯坦人死亡，其中许多是平民，30 多万人流离失所。以色列不会就此罢休，尽管它的军事选择并不诱人。今后几周，以色列人和巴勒斯坦人都必将遭受更多的苦难。

But the consequences of October 7th will be much more sweeping. The massacre could reshape not only Israel’s approach to the Palestinians but also its own domestic politics. It threatens Hamas’s grip on power in Gaza; it also risks a regional war.
但 10 月 7 日的后果将更为深远。大屠杀不仅会重塑以色列对巴勒斯坦人的态度，也会重塑其国内政治。它威胁到哈马斯对加沙权力的控制，还可能引发地区战争。

The assault began with a barrage of rockets: 2,200 of them in a matter of hours. That would have been shocking enough: it took Hamas almost a month to fire that many during its war against Israel in 2014. But Israelis soon discovered that the launches were cover for a bigger operation. Bulldozers breached the border fence and hundreds of militants streamed across. Others flew over it in paragliders or sailed round it in dinghies. They fanned out to Israeli cities and towns and started killing.
袭击以火箭弹的狂轰滥炸开始：几个小时内就发射了 2200 枚火箭弹。这本已足够令人震惊：哈马斯在 2014 年对以色列的战争中花了近一个月的时间才发射了这么多火箭弹。但以色列人很快发现，发射火箭是为了掩盖更大规模的行动。推土机突破了边境围栏，数百名武装分子涌了过去。其他人则乘坐滑翔伞飞越围栏，或乘坐橡皮艇绕着围栏航行。他们涌向以色列的城镇，开始大开杀戒。

It took Israel hours to organise a defence. Some units had to be rushed south from the northern border. Once they arrived, they languished in staging areas while commanders tried to work out a battle plan. Several retired generals took matters into their own hands, donning their old uniforms and driving to besieged villages to lead impromptu counter-attacks.
以色列花了几个小时才组织起防御。一些部队不得不从北部边境匆匆南下。一旦抵达，他们就在集结区苟延残喘，而指挥官们则试图制定作战计划。几位退役将军自作主张，穿上旧军装，驱车前往被围困的村庄，领导临时反击。

Even before it reclaimed its own territory, Israel started air strikes on Gaza. Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, announced that Israel was at war, and his government began to prepare for a possible ground offensive. The army has mobilised 360,000 reservists and has spent days shifting tanks and other kit to the Gaza border. Yoav Gallant, the defence minister, promised a total siege of Gaza. “No electricity, no food, no water, no fuel, everything is closed.” On October 11th its sole power plant ran out of fuel and shut down.
甚至在收复自己的领土之前，以色列就开始了对加沙的空袭。以色列总理本雅明-内塔尼亚胡（Binyamin Netanyahu）宣布以色列处于战争状态，他的政府开始为可能的地面进攻做准备。军队动员了 360,000 名预备役军人，并花了数天时间将坦克和其他装备转移到加沙边境。国防部长约阿夫-加兰特承诺对加沙实施全面围困。"没有电，没有食物，没有水，没有燃料，一切都被关闭"。10月11日，加沙唯一的发电厂因燃料耗尽而关闭。

Erez, the sole border crossing between Israel and Gaza, is closed indefinitely. Israel told civilians in Gaza to flee via the Rafah crossing with Egypt, but has repeatedly bombed it. Egypt anyway severely restricts the numbers permitted to cross. It is hard for Palestinians to leave Gaza even in peacetime. Now it is impossible.
以色列和加沙之间唯一的过境点埃雷兹被无限期关闭。以色列告诉加沙平民从与埃及接壤的拉法过境点逃离，但却一再轰炸该过境点。无论如何，埃及严格限制获准过境的人数。即使在和平时期，巴勒斯坦人也很难离开加沙。现在是不可能了。

As it prepares to fight in Gaza, the Israeli army must keep an eye on its northern border. On October 8th Hizbullah, a Shia militant group and political party in Lebanon, shelled the Shebaa Farms, a disputed sliver of territory. By unspoken rules of engagement, what happens in Shebaa stays in Shebaa: Hizbullah could show support for the Palestinians but also show Israel it did not want a broader conflict.
在准备加沙作战的同时，以色列军队必须密切关注其北部边境。10 月 8 日，黎巴嫩的什叶派激进组织和政党真主党炮击了有争议的一小块领土--沙巴阿农场。根据不言而喻的交战规则，在沙巴阿发生的一切都将留在沙巴阿：真主党可以表示对巴勒斯坦人的支持，但同时也向以色列表明它不希望发生更广泛的冲突。

A day later, though, the Israeli army killed a group of gunmen who crossed the border from Lebanon. Three Hizbullah militants were then killed in Israel’s retaliatory bombardment, which led the group to fire rockets at an Israeli army post. Neither side may want a war, but escalation is not always guided by logic. Lebanese citizens have rushed to stockpile food and fuel. Israel has evacuated towns near the northern border. Hamas has called loudly for others to join its attack on Israel.
但一天后，以色列军队打死了一伙从黎巴嫩越境的枪手。随后，三名真主党武装分子在以色列的报复性轰炸中丧生，这导致该组织向以色列军队哨所发射火箭弹。双方可能都不希望发生战争，但战争升级并不总是符合逻辑的。黎巴嫩公民急忙储备粮食和燃料。以色列撤离了北部边境附近的城镇。哈马斯大声呼吁其他人加入对以色列的攻击。

Israeli forces may take time to prepare, but a ground offensive against the Gaza Strip seems all but certain. Israeli troops occupied Gaza from 1967 to 2005, when they withdrew, forcing about 8,000 Jewish settlers to retreat with them. Since then, Israel has largely blockaded the territory by air, land and sea, while allowing some Palestinians to work in Israel and goods of a non-threatening nature to enter. (Egypt is almost as restrictive.)
以色列军队可能需要时间准备，但对加沙地带发动地面进攻似乎已是板上钉钉的事。以色列军队从 1967 年到 2005 年一直占领着加沙，2005 年以色列军队撤出，迫使大约 8000 名犹太定居者随之撤退。从那时起，以色列基本上从海陆空三方面封锁了该领土，同时允许一些巴勒斯坦人在以色列工作，并允许不具威胁性的货物进入。(埃及的限制几乎与以色列相同）。

Israel’s most recent incursion into Gaza, in 2014, was to destroy tunnels Hamas had dug under the border fence to infiltrate Israel. Israeli forces did not penetrate very far into the territory, which is only about 10km wide and 40km long, but home to 2m people. Even so, the operation showed how ground assaults can go wrong. A Hamas unit attacked an Israeli patrol near Rafah and captured an officer, Hadar Goldin. Israel subsequently shelled Rafah for days, killing dozens of Palestinians. Goldin was later declared dead. Israelis dubbed the incident “Black Friday”.
以色列最近一次入侵加沙是在 2014 年，目的是摧毁哈马斯为渗透以色列而在边境围栏下挖掘的地道。以色列军队并未深入该领土太远，该领土仅宽约10公里，长约40公里，但却居住着200万人。即便如此，这次行动还是显示了地面袭击是如何出错的。一支哈马斯部队在拉法附近袭击了一支以色列巡逻队，并抓获了一名军官哈达尔-戈尔丁（Hadar Goldin）。以色列随后连续数天炮击拉法，打死数十名巴勒斯坦人。戈尔丁后来被宣布死亡。以色列人将这一事件称为 "黑色星期五"。

The impending attack will be much bigger. Israel is likely to deploy two armoured divisions and one lighter airborne division, each of which has five brigades. Some of these units are waiting for their tanks and other equipment to reach staging areas around Gaza. Others took losses over the past several days of combat.
即将发动的攻击规模将更大。以色列可能部署两个装甲师和一个轻装空降师，每个师有五个旅。其中一些部队正在等待坦克和其他装备抵达加沙周围的集结地。其他部队在过去几天的战斗中损失惨重。

Assuming Israel’s leaders do order a large-scale invasion, one or two armoured brigades with tanks would probably try to cut the strip in two by pushing west at its narrowest point—6km—near Deir al-Balah. Two or three other brigade-sized units—a few thousand men each—would probably focus on the north, including around Gaza City, and one or two others on Khan Yunis or Rafah in the south.
假设以色列领导人真的下令发动大规模入侵，那么一个或两个配备坦克的装甲旅可能会试图将加沙地带一分为二，从其最狭窄处向西推进，距离代尔拜莱赫（Deir al-Balah）6 公里。另外两三个旅规模的部队--每个旅几千人--可能会把重点放在北部，包括加沙市周围，另外一两个旅会把重点放在南部的汗尤尼斯（Khan Yunis）或拉法（Rafah）。

Monuments to a massacreimage: getty images
大屠杀纪念碑图片：GETTY IMAGES

Their aim would probably be to target both Hamas and Islamic Jihad, a separate militant group, focusing on leaders and infrastructure beyond the reach of air strikes. Hamas has claimed that it has several hundred kilometres of tunnels in Gaza. Locating their entrances and dropping in explosives will be a priority. The biggest challenge will be urban warfare, a notoriously difficult task. Gaza is more densely populated than London or Tokyo, giving militants lots of places to hide and civilians few places to take refuge.
他们的目标可能是同时针对哈马斯和伊斯兰圣战组织（一个独立的激进组织），重点是空袭无法触及的领导人和基础设施。哈马斯声称，它在加沙有几百公里长的地道。找到隧道入口并投放炸药将是当务之急。最大的挑战将是城市战，这是一项出了名的艰巨任务。加沙的人口密度超过伦敦或东京，武装分子有很多地方可以藏身，而平民却没有多少地方可以避难。

Hamas may be counting on a relatively cautious assault. The group assumes that Israel will not have the stomach for the high casualties a ground invasion would entail. “We know that they are cowards,” says Moussa Abu Marzouk, a senior Hamas official based in Qatar. “We know that they can’t fight on the ground.” It also expects the presence of more than 100 Israeli and foreign hostages in Gaza will restrain the Israeli forces. Hamas hopes to exchange these prisoners for many, if not all, of the 5,200 Palestinians held in Israeli jails. It has also threatened to kill one each time Israel bombs civilian homes in Gaza “without advance warning”.
哈马斯可能寄希望于相对谨慎的进攻。该组织认为，以色列没有能力承受地面入侵带来的巨大伤亡。"驻卡塔尔的哈马斯高级官员穆萨-阿布-马尔祖克（Moussa Abu Marzouk）说："我们知道他们是懦夫。"我们知道他们无法在地面上作战"。哈马斯还希望加沙境内的 100 多名以色列和外国人质能够牵制以色列军队。哈马斯希望用这些俘虏来交换被关押在以色列监狱中的 5200 名巴勒斯坦人中的许多人（如果不是全部的话）。哈马斯还威胁说，每当以色列 "在没有事先警告的情况下 "轰炸加沙的民宅时，就会杀死一人。

The catastrophic death toll of recent days may change the Israeli calculus, however. “The Israeli willingness to bear—and exact—costs is much higher than in the past,” says Natan Sachs of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank in Washington. As for the hostages, many Israelis still burying loved ones say they are in no mood to haggle with the group that killed them.
然而，最近几天的灾难性死亡人数可能会改变以色列的算盘。"华盛顿智库布鲁金斯学会的纳坦-萨克斯（Natan Sachs）说："以色列愿意承担--也愿意付出--的代价比过去高得多。至于人质，许多仍在安葬亲人的以色列人表示，他们没有心情与杀害他们的组织讨价还价。

Ignore at your peril 忽视后果自负

Indeed, Israel is having to re-examine many long-held assumptions, most notably the belief that Gaza could safely be left to fester. After Hamas seized control of Gaza in 2007 from the Palestinian Authority (pa), the Palestinian government-in-waiting, Israel and Egypt drastically tightened border restrictions, asphyxiating Gaza’s economy. Despite the repeated bouts of violence since then, Israeli officials had come to think that Hamas had become more pragmatic. “Above all, they want to keep control of Gaza,” an army officer said last year. “To do that they need to improve the economy.” If Israel allowed Arab governments to bankroll basic social services in Gaza, the thinking ran, and issued more permits for Gazans to work in Israel, the territory would remain quiescent.
事实上，以色列不得不重新审视许多长期以来的假设，其中最明显的就是认为可以安全地任由加沙肆虐的想法。2007 年哈马斯从巴勒斯坦候任政府巴勒斯坦权力机构手中夺取加沙控制权后，以色列和埃及大幅加强了边境限制，使加沙经济窒息。尽管此后暴力事件屡屡发生，以色列官员还是认为哈马斯变得更加务实了。"一名军官去年说："最重要的是，他们想继续控制加沙。"要做到这一点，他们需要改善经济。这种想法认为，如果以色列允许阿拉伯政府为加沙的基本社会服务提供资金，并向加沙人发放更多在以色列工作的许可证，那么加沙就会保持平静。

Not only was that view completely wrong, but Israel’s vaunted security services also failed to spot that an elaborate attack was in the works. Every phone call in Gaza is routed through Israeli networks, which simplifies eavesdropping. Drones frequently fly over the strip. Israel also has a vast network of informants in the territory—all to no avail.
这种观点不仅完全错误，而且以色列自诩为安全机构的部门也没有发现一场精心策划的袭击正在酝酿之中。加沙的每一通电话都通过以色列网络转接，从而简化了窃听程序。无人机经常飞越加沙地带。以色列在该领土上还有一个庞大的线人网络--所有这些都无济于事。

Part of the problem, no doubt, was a conceptual failure: the belief that Hamas had lost interest in large-scale conflict. In fact, even some Hamas leaders seem surprised. Mr Abu Marzouk says he and other senior leaders in Qatar were not told about the attack in advance. Since 2017, when Yahya Sinwar became the leader of Hamas in Gaza, a small number of hardliners, mostly based in Gaza, have consolidated power.
毫无疑问，问题的部分原因在于观念上的失败：人们认为哈马斯已经对大规模冲突失去了兴趣。事实上，就连一些哈马斯领导人似乎也感到惊讶。阿布-马尔祖克（Abu Marzouk）先生说，他和卡塔尔的其他高级领导人事先并没有被告知这次袭击。自 2017 年叶海亚-辛瓦尔（Yahya Sinwar）成为加沙哈马斯领导人以来，少数强硬派（主要以加沙为基地）巩固了权力。

A second error was the divide-and-rule policy towards the Palestinians of Binyamin Netanyahu, who has been Israel’s prime minister for 12 of the past 14 years. He has long sought to undermine the pa, which still runs parts of the West Bank. He has refused to resume peace negotiations since half-hearted talks broke down in 2014. He has frozen transfers of the tax revenues Israel collects on the pa’s behalf. At the same time, he has treated Hamas like a legitimate power in Gaza. In 2011, for instance, he approved a deal to swap 1,027 Palestinian prisoners for Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier the militants had captured in 2006. The exchange, naturally, raised Hamas’s standing among Palestinians.
第二个错误是在过去 14 年中有 12 年担任以色列总理的本雅明-内塔尼亚胡对巴勒斯坦人采取的分而治之政策。内塔尼亚胡在过去 14 年中的 12 年里一直担任以色列总理。他长期以来一直寻求削弱巴勒斯坦权力机构，而巴勒斯坦权力机构仍控制着约旦河西岸的部分地区。自2014年半心半意的谈判破裂以来，他一直拒绝恢复和平谈判。他冻结了以色列代表巴勒斯坦权力机构征收的税收的转移。与此同时，他还把哈马斯当作加沙的合法政权对待。例如，2011年，他批准了用1027名巴勒斯坦囚犯交换吉拉德-沙利特（Gilad Shalit）的交易。这次交换自然提高了哈马斯在巴勒斯坦人中的地位。

For Mr Netanyahu, the logic was clear. The pa is committed to negotiating a two-state solution with Israel, which is anathema to the prime minister’s right-wing supporters. Undermining the pa and boosting its militant rival would help him to claim that Israel has no “partner for peace”. But Palestinians drew a different, if predictable lesson: that the only way to extract concessions from Israel is through force.
对内塔尼亚胡先生来说，道理很清楚。巴勒斯坦权力机构致力于与以色列谈判两国解决方案，而这正是总理的右翼支持者所厌恶的。削弱巴勒斯坦民族权力机构并扶持其激进对手将有助于内塔尼亚胡宣称以色列没有 "和平伙伴"。但巴勒斯坦人得出了不同的、甚至是可以预见的教训：从以色列那里获得让步的唯一途径就是武力。

Hamas may now have overreached, however. Some observers believe it did not expect its assault to be so successful and is not sure how to proceed. It may have hoped to frighten Israel into concessions, but has instead steeled it for war. The Israeli army told foreign defence attachés on October 10th that its aim was to “eliminate” the leadership of Hamas. “The military end-goal is to destroy Hamas’s capability, no matter how long it takes,” the army said, according to someone who attended. That is easier said than done, though, as America learned during its long war in Afghanistan, or Israel during its 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon.
然而，哈马斯现在可能做得太过了。一些观察家认为，哈马斯没有料到自己的进攻会如此成功，因此不知道该如何继续。哈马斯可能曾希望吓唬以色列做出让步，但却为战争做好了准备。以色列军队 10 月 10 日告诉外国国防武官，其目标是 "消灭 "哈马斯的领导层。"以军说："军事最终目标是摧毁哈马斯的能力，无论需要多长时间。不过，说起来容易做起来难，美国在阿富汗的长期战争中，以色列在黎巴嫩南部长达 18 年的占领中都学到了这一点。

The next battle loomsimage: ap
下一场战斗迫在眉睫图片：AP

Even if Israel could uproot Hamas, no one is sure what would replace it. The pa is too weak to assert authority in Gaza; it is not even strong enough to control the West Bank, parts of which have fallen into anarchy. A plurality of Palestinians, and a majority of Gazans, want to dissolve it. Mahmoud Abbas, the 87-year-old president, has not set foot in Gaza in almost 20 years.
即使以色列能将哈马斯连根拔起，也没有人确定取而代之的会是什么。巴勒斯坦权力机构过于弱小，无法在加沙行使权力；它甚至不足以控制西岸，西岸部分地区已经陷入无政府状态。大多数巴勒斯坦人和大多数加沙人希望解散巴勒斯坦权力机构。87 岁的总统马哈茂德-阿巴斯近 20 年来从未踏足加沙。

There has been some idle talk of sending Arab peacekeepers to secure Gaza, but few Arab regimes would want to do so. Egypt occupied Gaza from 1949 to 1967; both sides have bitter memories of that time. Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have no desire to rule over 2m Palestinians. Nor do most Israelis wish to reoccupy the territory.
有人闲聊说要派遣阿拉伯维和人员来确保加沙的安全，但很少有阿拉伯政权愿意这样做。埃及从 1949 年到 1967 年一直占领着加沙；双方都对那段历史有着痛苦的回忆。沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国等海湾国家无意统治 200 万巴勒斯坦人。大多数以色列人也不希望重新占领这片领土。

To invade and then leave, however, would not change the status quo. Hamas’s leaders and a large proportion of its fighters are likely to emerge from their bunkers and restore control over the strip the minute the Israelis depart. That is an unpalatable outcome, but it is the most likely one.
然而，入侵然后撤离并不会改变现状。哈马斯领导人及其大部分战斗人员很可能会在以色列人离开的那一刻从他们的掩体中走出来，恢复对该地带的控制。这是一个令人不快的结果，但却是最有可能出现的结果。

Charting a clear path forward would be difficult for any Israeli government, but especially for the current one. This has been a year of deep political turmoil. Mr Netanyahu won a plurality of seats in a snap election in November, after more than a year in opposition. He presides over a government comprised entirely of right-wing and religious parties. His minister for national security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, was banned from serving in the Israeli army because of his extreme nationalist views.
对任何以色列政府来说，尤其是对现任政府来说，明确前进的道路都是困难的。今年是以色列政局深度动荡的一年。在反对党执政一年多之后，内塔尼亚胡先生在 11 月的临时选举中赢得了多数席位。他领导的政府完全由右翼和宗教政党组成。他的国家安全部长伊塔马-本-格维尔（Itamar Ben-Gvir）因极端民族主义观点而被禁止在以色列军队服役。

Mr Netanyahu has since pursued a divisive agenda, which includes curtailing the Supreme Court’s authority to overturn government policies and giving politicians more say in the appointment of judges. Critics dubbed this a judicial “coup” and have staged mass protests every Saturday this year—until October 7th, when they were suspended. Army reservists threatened to boycott their mandatory service (that tactic, too, has been shelved).
从那时起，内塔尼亚胡先生就开始推行一项制造分裂的议程，其中包括削弱最高法院推翻政府政策的权力，以及在法官任命方面给予政客更多发言权。批评者将此称为司法 "政变"，并在今年的每个星期六举行大规模抗议活动--直到 10 月 7 日才暂停。预备役军人威胁要抵制他们的义务服役（这一策略也被搁置）。

Optimists hope this month’s carnage will help shift Israeli politics back to the centre. “If there can be one conciliation after this darkest of days, it will be Israel returning to its senses, ending the political crisis and forming a unity government,” wrote Shimrit Meir, an adviser to Naftali Bennett, who replaced Mr Netanyahu in 2021 for a brief stint as prime minister. In a prime-time address on October 9th Mr Netanyahu urged centrist parties to join his government “without preconditions”.
乐观主义者希望本月的大屠杀将有助于以色列政治回归中心。"2021年接替内塔尼亚胡先生短暂担任总理的纳夫塔利-本内特的顾问希姆里特-梅厄写道："如果在这最黑暗的日子之后能有一个和解，那就是以色列恢复理智，结束政治危机，组建一个团结政府。在 10 月 9 日的黄金时段讲话中，内塔尼亚胡敦促中间派政党 "无条件 "加入他的政府。

On October 11th, after a couple of days of negotiation, Benny Gantz, a former army chief who leads the second-biggest centrist party, National Unity, agreed to join an “emergency government”. But Yair Lapid, leader of the biggest opposition party, Yesh Atid, has so far declined to participate.
10 月 11 日，经过几天的谈判，领导第二大中间党派民族团结党的前陆军总司令本尼-甘兹同意加入 "紧急政府"。但最大反对党 "民族统一党"（Yesh Atid）领导人亚伊尔-拉皮德（Yair Lapid）至今仍拒绝参加。

United in suspicion 疑神疑鬼

The dilemma, for both parties, lies in joining a government that their supporters have spent the past year protesting against. Mr Netanyahu has promised not to pursue any legislation unrelated to the war, but has refused to jettison his most extreme coalition partners. That makes sense for a prime minister concerned, as ever, with his political survival. The unity government will only last as long as the fighting does. Mr Netanyahu does not want to alienate the parties he will then need to form another right-wing coalition. Mr Gantz has held his nose and joined anyway, lending military expertise to a government that lacks it.
对于两党来说，困境在于加入一个他们的支持者在过去一年中一直在抗议的政府。内塔尼亚胡已承诺不推行任何与战争无关的立法，但拒绝抛弃他最极端的联盟伙伴。这对于一位一如既往关心自己政治生存的总理来说是合情合理的。战争打多久，团结政府就能维持多久。内塔尼亚胡不想疏远他需要组建另一个右翼联盟的党派。甘孜先生忍气吞声地加入了联合政府，为这个缺乏军事专长的政府提供了军事知识。

Although that will steady the government for the time being, the events of recent days may yet put an end to Mr Netanyahu’s long and comeback-filled career. He has spent a year fighting a needless political battle instead of focusing on real threats—and many years before that labouring to make Palestine a problem with no solution. Security is his watchword and he has overseen the Israeli armed forces and intelligence services for more than a decade, with only a brief interruption.
尽管这将暂时稳住政府，但近日发生的事件可能会终结内塔尼亚胡先生漫长而又充满复出希望的职业生涯。他花了一年时间打一场无谓的政治斗争，而不是专注于真正的威胁--在此之前的许多年里，他一直在努力使巴勒斯坦成为一个没有解决方案的问题。安全是他的座右铭，十多年来，他一直负责监管以色列武装部队和情报部门，仅有过短暂的中断。

Hamas, for its part, has opted for murderous nihilism. To talk to its leaders is to slip into a fantasy world where Gaza is “liberated”, even though its inhabitants are trapped in penury in a 365 square-kilometre cell. Victory over Israel is imminent and until then Gazans will gladly endure their lot. Since the massacre the group has made clear that, apart from the hope of sparking a broader attack on Israel, it has no plan beyond continued violence.
哈马斯则选择了嗜杀的虚无主义。与哈马斯领导人交谈，就像进入了一个幻想的世界，在那里，加沙已经 "解放"，尽管加沙居民被困在 365 平方公里的牢房里，生活窘迫。战胜以色列指日可待，在此之前，加沙人将乐于忍受他们的命运。自屠杀发生以来，该组织已明确表示，除了希望引发对以色列更广泛的攻击外，它除了继续使用暴力外没有其他计划。

The unfolding cataclysm, in short, seems likely to lay bare the poverty of thinking on both sides. Alas, the appalling bloodshed of recent days, and the likelihood of further horrors to come, will also make adopting a more constructive approach to the conflict that much harder. ■
简而言之，这场正在发生的灾难似乎有可能暴露出双方思想的贫乏。遗憾的是，最近几天发生的骇人听闻的流血事件，以及未来可能发生的更多恐怖事件，也将使采取更具建设性的方式解决冲突变得更加困难。■