• Some strategists lift 2023 calls, remain bears for next year
  部分策略师调高 2023 年看涨预期，明年仍看跌

• Investors’ quandary is whether the pessimists are still wrong
  投资者的窘境在于悲观主义者是否仍然错了

  

Near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York.纽约的纽约证券交易所（NYSE）附近

2023年9月17日

Stock-market strategists who were largely wrong about this year’s rally are finally starting to come to face their mistake, raising year-end targets for the S&P 500 Index.
对今年涨势判断大错特错的股市策略师们终于开始正视自己的错误，上调了标普 500 指数的年底目标。

Take Societe Generale’s Manish Kabra, who boosted his year-end target last week on the index to 4,750 from 4,300 — 25% above his original call of 3,800 heading into 2023. Or Piper Sandler & Co.’s Michael Kantrowitz and BNP Paribas SA’s Greg Boutle, who at 3,225 and 3,400 had held the lowest targets among sell-side forecasters. They were cornered into lifting their 2023 outlooks in recent months just to keep up with this year’s 15.9% rally.
以法国兴业银行的 Manish Kabra 为例，他上周将该指数的年底目标从 4,300 点提高到了 4,750 点，比他原先预期的 3,800 点高出了 25%。Piper Sandler & Co. 的 Michael Kantrowitz 和 BNP Paribas SA 的 Greg Boutle 也是卖方预测者中目标最低的，分别为 3,225 点和 3,400 点。近几个月来，他们被迫上调了 2023 年的展望，以跟上今年 15.9% 的涨幅。

And then there’s Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, a stalwart bear, who conceded in July that he was pessimistic for too long. Though he still sees US stocks falling more than 10% before the year is out.
摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）则是一位坚定的 "熊市 "投资者，他在 7 月份承认自己悲观了太久。尽管他仍然认为美股在今年年底前会下跌 10%以上。

“Group think and psychology is a primary driver of strategists’ behavior,” Adam Sarhan, founder of 50 Park Investments, said. “So many strategists have been wrong for so long this year, so many have been forced to adjust their targets as they try to catch up with the stock market.”
"群体思维和心理是策略师行为的主要驱动力，"50 Park Investments 的创始人亚当-萨汉（Adam Sarhan）说。"今年有那么多策略师错了那么久，那么多人被迫调整目标，因为他们试图追赶股市的步伐。"

While strategists have largely capitulated on their forecasts for 2023, they aren’t quite ready to turn into bulls. Kabra, for example, expects the S&P 500 to fall to 3,800 by the middle of next year, driven by a consumer-spending crunch. It closed Friday at 4,450.
虽然策略师们在很大程度上放弃了对 2023 年的预测，但他们还没有准备好转为牛市。例如，卡布拉预计，受消费支出紧缩的影响，标普 500 指数将在明年年中跌至 3,800 点。该指数周五收于 4450 点。

He’s not alone. Strategists broadly forecast a market downturn in 2024, even as signs mount that the US economy may avoid a recession — the rate of inflation has cooled overall, retail sales remain strong, and the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady this week.
他并不孤单。尽管有越来越多的迹象表明美国经济可能会避免衰退--通胀率总体降温、零售销售保持强劲、美联储本周有望维持利率稳定，但策略师们普遍预测 2024 年市场将出现下滑。

For investors with money on the line, the gloom on Wall Street creates a dilemma. It’s a reminder that the Fed’s efforts to tame inflation still threaten the economy. At the same time, stocks overcame the same threats in 2023 and now, with Corporate America’s improving profit outlook and the Fed itself seeing no signs of a recession, some market watchers are concluding that the bears are going to be wrong again.
对于资金岌岌可危的投资者来说，华尔街的阴霾让他们进退两难。这提醒我们，美联储抑制通胀的努力仍然威胁着经济。与此同时，股票在 2023 年克服了同样的威胁，而现在，随着美国公司利润前景的改善，以及美联储本身没有看到经济衰退的迹象，一些市场观察家得出结论，熊市将再次错失良机。

Different Pressures 不同的压力

To Sarhan, an equities bull who favors technology and growth stocks, it all drives home how the stakes are different for those who monitor the market — like strategists — and those who manage client money.
对于偏爱科技股和成长股的股票大牛 Sarhan 来说，这一切都让他明白，对于那些监控市场的人--比如策略师--和那些管理客户资金的人来说，利害关系是多么不同。

“The pressure is extremely different as a money manager,” he said. “Not only do you have to be right, but you must beat the market as well — or clients will walk out on you.”
"他说："作为资金经理，压力是极其不同的。"你不仅必须是正确的，还必须战胜市场--否则客户就会抛弃你"。

A slew of Wall Street strategists have been forced to ratchet up their forecasts as stocks extended their climb this year. Bank of America Corp.’s Savita Subramanian, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin and Citigroup Inc.’s Scott Chronert also boosted their 2023 outlooks in recent months to keep up with the rally.
随着今年股市继续攀升，华尔街众多策略师被迫调高了他们的预测。美国银行（Bank of America Corp）的萨维塔-苏布拉马尼安（Savita Subramanian）、高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc）的大卫-科斯汀（David Kostin）和花旗集团（Citigroup Inc.

“You could argue that everyone who’s upping their estimates and adjusting their market calls isn’t necessarily wrong, they were just early,” said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and adviser at Wealthspire Advisors. “Listening to someone you disagree with is much more valuable than simply seeking confirmation bias from someone else who views the market the same way you do.”
"Wealthspire Advisors高级副总裁兼顾问奥利弗-普尔舍（Oliver Pursche）表示："你可以说，每个上调预期和调整市场判断的人都不一定是错的，他们只是来早了。"倾听与你意见相左的人的看法，比简单地从与你对市场看法相同的人那里寻求确认性偏见更有价值"。

With the Fed nearing the end of its tightening cycle, Pursche is optimistic about the stock market and the economy as the earnings outlook brightens and spending remains robust.
随着美联储紧缩周期接近尾声，Pursche 对股市和经济持乐观态度，因为盈利前景光明，消费依然强劲。

Risks Remain 风险依然存在

But that’s not to say there aren’t risks.
但这并不是说没有风险。

Fed officials have signaled they are prepared to lift borrowing costs again if the economy and inflation don’t cool further. There’s also a tried-and-true signal emanating from the bond market, which has never sounded recession alarms for this long.
美联储官员已经表示，如果经济和通胀没有进一步降温，他们准备再次提高借贷成本。此外，债券市场也发出了一个屡试不爽的信号，因为债券市场从未在如此长的时间内敲响过经济衰退的警钟。

The main question vexing much of Wall Street at this point may be how long the Fed will keep rates this high, if it actually is done hiking. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect officials to keep rates in the 5.25% to 5.5% range at their Sept. 19-20 meeting, and the first cut to come in May – two months later than the economists’ view in July.
目前困扰华尔街许多人的主要问题可能是，如果美联储真的完成加息，它还会将如此高的利率维持多久。接受彭博社调查的经济学家预计，美联储官员将在9月19-20日的会议上把利率维持在5.25%-5.5%的区间，首次降息将在5月份--比经济学家7月份的观点晚两个月。

Read more: Fed Seen Signaling One More Hike and Pushing Out 2024 Rate Cuts
更多信息美联储被视为再加息一次的信号，并推后至2024年降息

Historically, nailing the timing of when the Fed is done hiking has delivered double-digit returns for equities investors, but the trajectory gets murky when the central bank skips before resuming hikes.
从历史上看，把握住美联储完成加息的时间点能为股票投资者带来两位数的回报，但当央行在恢复加息前跳过加息时间点时，投资轨迹就会变得模糊不清。

There are signs that investors have money to put to work in stocks. While investors’ exposure in July looked stretched after the big first-half advance in equities, it is now considerably closer to neutral, data compiled by Deutsche Bank AG show.
有迹象表明，投资者有钱投资股票。德意志银行（Deutsche Bank AG）汇编的数据显示，在上半年股市大幅上涨后，投资者在 7 月份的持股量显得捉襟见肘，但现在已大大接近中性。

Source: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
资料来源德意志银行资产配置

It appears that some of that money may be coming off the sidelines. Equity funds just saw the biggest weekly inflow in 18 months on growing confidence the economy is headed for a soft landing, according to Bank of America.
看来，部分资金可能会从场外撤出。据美国银行（Bank of America）称，由于对经济软着陆的信心不断增强，股票基金刚刚创下了 18 个月以来最大的单周资金流入量。

“No one thought the rally would go this far this fast,” said Stephanie Lang, chief investment officer at Homrich Berg, who’s been underweight equities all year. “What will be telling is if most of the strategists turn, but then comes more of the economic weakness some are already worried about.”
"Homrich Berg 公司的首席投资官斯蒂芬妮-兰（Stephanie Lang）说："没有人想到反弹会走得这么快。"最能说明问题的是，如果大多数策略师转向，但随之而来的是一些人已经担心的经济疲软。