• Data show foreign funds shunning China across asset classes
  数据显示外国基金对中国各类资产避而远之
• MSCI China set for third annual decline, while EM gauge rises
  MSCI 中国指数将出现第三次年度下跌，新兴市场指数上涨

By Jeanny Yu and Charlotte Yang 2023年9月16日

A massive retreat of funds from Chinese stocks and bonds is diminishing the market’s clout in global portfolios and accelerating its decoupling from the rest of the world.
大量资金从中国股票和债券中撤出，正在削弱中国市场在全球投资组合中的影响力，并加速其与世界其他地区的脱钩。

Foreign holdings of the nation’s equities and debt have fallen by about 1.37 trillion yuan ($188 billion), or 17%, from a December-2021 peak through the end of June this year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the latest data from the central bank. That’s before onshore shares witnessed a record $12 billion outflow in August alone.
根据彭博社基于央行最新数据的计算，从2021年12月的峰值到今年6月底，外资持有的中国股票和债务已减少约1.37万亿元人民币（1880亿美元），降幅达17%。在此之前，在岸股票仅在8月份就出现了创纪录的120亿美元的资金外流。

The exodus coincides with China’s economic slump due to years of Covid restrictions, a property market crisis, and persistent tensions with the West — concerns that have helped make the “avoid China” theme one of the biggest convictions among investors in Bank of America’s latest survey. Foreign fund participation in the Hong Kong stock market has dropped by more than a third since the end of 2020.
在美国银行的最新调查中，"避开中国 "成为投资者最大的信念之一。自 2020 年底以来，外国基金参与香港股市的比例下降了三分之一以上。

“Foreigners are just throwing in the towel,” said Zhikai Chen, head of Asia and global EM equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. There’s anxiety about the property market and a slowdown in consumer spending, he said. “Disappointment on those fronts has led to a lot of foreign investors rethinking their exposure.”
"法国巴黎银行资产管理公司（BNP Paribas Asset Management）亚洲和全球新兴市场股票主管陈志凯（音译）说："外国人正在放弃。他说，人们对房地产市场和消费支出放缓感到焦虑。"他说："这些方面的失望导致许多外国投资者重新考虑他们的投资。

Foreign Holdings of China Equities, Bonds Peaked in 2021 外资持有的中国股票和债券在 2021 年达到顶峰

Source: PBOC, Bloomberg 资料来源来源：中国人民银行，彭博社

NOTE: Data refers to domestic yuan-denominated assets held by overseas entities
注：数据指海外实体持有的国内人民币资产

While China’s weakness was once seen as dragging down the rest of the world, particularly the emerging-markets group, that has clearly not been the case this year. Down about 7% in 2023, the MSCI China Index is staring at a third straight year of losses that will mark the longest losing streak in over two decades. The broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up 3% as investors chase returns in other places like India and parts of Latin America.
虽然中国的疲软一度被认为拖累了世界其他国家，尤其是新兴市场国家，但今年的情况显然并非如此。2023 年，MSCI 中国指数下跌约 7%，连续第三年下跌，将创下二十多年来最长连跌纪录。由于投资者追逐印度和拉丁美洲部分地区等其他地方的回报，更广泛的MSCI新兴市场指数上涨了3%。

The divergence comes as China’s bid to achieve self-sufficiency across supply chains and souring ties with the US have made other markets less susceptible to its ebbs and flows. In addition to the economic decoupling, another reason has been the artificial intelligence boom, which has boosted markets from the US to Taiwan while giving less of a lift to mainland shares. China’s weighting in the EM gauge has dropped to around 27% from more than 30% at the end of 2021.
出现这种分歧的原因是，中国正在努力实现供应链的自给自足，而且与美国的关系也在恶化，这使得其他市场不太容易受到中国经济起伏的影响。除经济脱钩外，另一个原因是人工智能的蓬勃发展，这推动了从美国到台湾的市场，但对大陆股市的提振作用较小。中国在新兴市场指数中的权重已从 2021 年底的 30% 以上降至 27% 左右。

At the same time, a strategy of stripping China out of emerging-market portfolios is fast gaining traction, with launches of equity funds that exclude China already reaching a record annual high in 2023.
与此同时，将中国从新兴市场投资组合中剔除的策略正迅速受到追捧，2023 年，将中国排除在外的股票基金发行量已创下年度新高。

“China risks are several – LGFV, housing stock overhang, demographics, dependency ratio, regulatory volatility, geopolitical isolation,” said Gaurav Pantankar, chief investment officer at MercedCERA, which oversees approximately $1.1 billion of assets in the US. “Investment opportunities within EM exist in various pockets.”
"MercedCERA 在美国监管着约 11 亿美元的资产，其首席投资官 Gaurav Pantankar 说："中国的风险有几个方面--LGFV、住房存量过剩、人口结构、抚养比、监管波动、地缘政治孤立。"新兴市场的投资机会存在于不同的领域。

In the debt market, global investors have pulled about $26 billion from Chinese government bonds in 2023, while plowing a collective $62 billion into notes from the rest of emerging Asia, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Roughly half of the $250 billion-$300 billion inflow that accompanied China’s inclusion into government bond indexes since 2019 has been erased, according to an analysis by JPMorgan Chase & Co.
彭博汇编的数据显示，在债务市场上，全球投资者已从2023年的中国国债中撤资约260亿美元，同时向亚洲其他新兴国家的债券集体投入了620亿美元。摩根大通银行（JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Selling pressure on the yuan has pushed the currency to a 16-year low versus the dollar. The central bank’s loose policy stance, in contrast to tightening in most major economies, is weakening the yuan and giving foreigners another reason to shun local assets.
人民币面临的抛售压力已将人民币兑美元汇率推至 16 年来的最低点。与大多数主要经济体的紧缩政策形成鲜明对比的是，中国央行的宽松政策立场正在削弱人民币，并给外国人提供了另一个避开本地资产的理由。

In terms of corporate debt performance, China appears to have fully decoupled from the rest of Asia as a crisis in its real estate sector heads into its fourth year. The market has become more locally-held with approximately 85-90% owned by domestic investors.
就企业债务表现而言，随着房地产行业危机进入第四个年头，中国似乎已与亚洲其他国家完全脱钩。中国房地产市场的本地化程度越来越高，约 85-90% 的资产由国内投资者持有。

All of this comes against the backdrop of China’s deteriorating economy, which has caused a rethink of the market’s allure as an investment destination. Wall Street banks including Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan doubt whether Beijing’s 5% growth target for this year can be met.
所有这些都是在中国经济不断恶化的背景下发生的，中国经济的恶化导致人们重新思考中国市场作为投资目的地的吸引力。包括花旗集团和摩根大通在内的华尔街银行怀疑中国政府今年 5%的经济增长目标能否实现。

Yet the gargantuan size of China’s economy and its key role in the manufacturing supply chain mean the market will remain a crucial part of portfolios for many investors, albeit to a lesser extent.
然而，中国经济的巨大规模及其在制造业供应链中的关键作用，意味着中国市场仍将是许多投资者投资组合的重要组成部分，尽管程度有所降低。

One channel through which China can still impact international financial markets is via globally traded commodities. Being the biggest importer of energy, metals and food, its influence extends beyond securities portfolios, creating ties to the global economy that are likely to prove more durable. The nation’s world-leading position in clean energy, from solar panels to electric vehicles, is one example of the expanded potential for trade as the world tries to meet its climate obligations.
中国仍能影响国际金融市场的一个渠道是全球交易的大宗商品。作为能源、金属和食品的最大进口国，中国的影响力超出了证券投资组合，与全球经济的联系可能会更加持久。从太阳能电池板到电动汽车，中国在清洁能源领域处于世界领先地位，这就是在全球努力履行其气候义务的过程中扩大贸易潜力的一个例子。

“An economy which slows down doesn’t do so everywhere,” said Karine Hirn, partner at East Capital Asset Management. “We find good value in sectors with structural growth outlook, such as new energy vehicles, consumer-related and parts of renewables supply chain.”
"东方资本资产管理公司（East Capital Asset Management）合伙人卡琳-希恩（Karine Hirn）说："经济放缓并不是无处不在。"我们在具有结构性增长前景的行业中发现了良好的价值，例如新能源汽车、与消费者相关的行业以及可再生能源供应链的部分环节。

The CSI 300 Index, a benchmark of onshore shares, fell 0.7% on Friday as foreigners sold even after data on retail sales and industrial production for August exceeded estimates. As the weakness persists, global funds’ positioning in China has already reached the lowest level since October, when the nation’s reopening from stringent Covid curbs sparked a sharp rebound over the next three months. In contrast, allocation to US equities — which have outperformed global peers this year — is rising.
作为在岸股票基准的沪深300指数周五下跌0.7%，原因是8月份的零售销售和工业生产数据超出预期，但仍有外资抛售。由于疲软态势持续，全球基金在中国的持仓已达到10月份以来的最低水平，当时中国从严格的Covid限制中重新开放，引发了未来三个月的大幅反弹。与此相反，今年以来表现优于全球同行的美国股票配置却在上升。

For money managers like Xin-Yao Ng, investing in China requires a subtle balance of being wary of the structural challenges while seeking opportunities from individual stocks.
对于像吴昕瑶这样的基金经理来说，投资中国需要一种微妙的平衡，既要警惕结构性挑战，又要从个股中寻找机会。

“I am structurally cautious about China’s long-term economic outlook, and conscious of fatter tail risks relating to geopolitics,” said Ng, an investment manager of Asian equities at abrdn Asia Ltd. “But China is still a very wide and deep universe with a lot of different opportunities. Broad valuation is very low now,” he said, adding that it’s an “interesting stock picking market” for fundamental investors.
"我对中国的长期经济前景持结构性谨慎态度，并意识到与地缘政治有关的更大尾部风险，"abrdn Asia Ltd.的亚洲股票投资经理Ng说。"但中国仍然是一个非常广泛和深入的领域，有很多不同的机会。他补充说，对于基本面投资者来说，中国是一个 "有趣的选股市场"。