By Latika Bourke 拉蒂卡-伯克 2023年9月10日 悉尼先驱晨报

One of Europe’s top business figures in China says there is no hope that anyone can influence President Xi Jinping to retreat from his aggressive foreign policy.

在中国的欧洲顶级商界人士之一表示，任何人都没有希望影响习近平主席放弃其咄咄逼人的外交政策。

Joerg Wuttke, the president emeritus of the EU Chamber in China, is in Australia to address the Asia Society on Monday about the economic trajectory of the world’s second-largest economy.
中国欧盟商会名誉会长约尔格-伍特克（Joerg Wuttke）周一将在澳大利亚亚洲协会发表演讲，探讨世界第二大经济体的经济发展轨迹。

Joerg Wuttke is president emeritus of the EU Chamber in China.
Joerg Wuttke 是中国欧盟商会名誉会长。

He said its days of blockbuster economic growth were over because Xi was willing to exchange growth for ideology.
他说，中国经济高速增长的时代已经过去，因为习近平愿意以增长换取意识形态。

He said he did not believe this would lead to conflict over democratically ruled Taiwan, which China claims as its own and Xi has threatened to take control of, with military force if necessary.
他说，他不认为这会导致在民主统治的台湾问题上发生冲突，中国声称台湾是自己的领土，习近平曾威胁说必要时要用军事力量控制台湾。

Wuttke said that although Xi had to service his domestic crowd with patriotic statements, he would assess the risks and costs of starting a war as too great. Xi was “not a man in a hurry when it comes to Taiwan”.
Wuttke 说，尽管习近平必须以爱国主义言论服务国内民众，但他会评估发动战争的风险和代价是否太大。习近平 "在台湾问题上并不着急"。

“I really don’t see any military conflict in Taiwan, everything I hear here is too rational,” Wuttke said in an interview over Zoom from Beijing, where he has been based since 1997.
"我真的不认为台湾会发生任何军事冲突，我在这里听到的一切都太理性了，"武特克在北京接受中伏采访时说，他自 1997 年以来一直在北京工作。

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping speak of their great friendship and deepening political ties.俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔-普京和中国国家主席习近平畅谈伟大友谊和不断深化的政治关系。

“He’s a man who doesn’t gamble. Unlike Putin, he’s a man that wants security and controllable security – and a war in Taiwan is anything but.
"他是一个不赌博的人。与普京不同的是，他想要安全和可控的安全，而台湾战争则完全不是。

“I guess that he will not make the mistake of going down the road that has unintended consequences as he has seen from the US in Iraq and Afghanistan: it is easy to start a war and it’s very difficult to end it and win it.”
"我猜他不会犯错，不会走上美国在伊拉克和阿富汗所看到的那条会带来意想不到后果的道路：发动战争很容易，结束战争并赢得战争却非常困难"。

Wuttke counts Kevin Rudd among his friends and described Australia’s former prime minister and current ambassador to the US as one of the world’s top thinkers on China.
Wuttke 将陆克文视为自己的朋友，并称这位澳大利亚前总理和现任驻美大使是世界上最顶尖的中国问题思想家之一。

Rudd’s 2022 book The Avoidable War argues China and the US can coexist without military conflict in the form of “managed strategic competition”.
陆克文 2022 年出版的《可以避免的战争》一书认为，中美两国可以在没有军事冲突的情况下，以 "有管理的战略竞争 "的形式共存。

US President Joe Biden administration has been trying to calm relations with Beijing.
美国总统乔-拜登政府一直在努力平息与北京的关系。CREDIT:AP

The Biden administration has been trying to calm relations with Beijing, but China has refused to re-establish a hotline for their militaries to use to prevent skirmishes or accidental escalations.
拜登政府一直在努力平息与北京的关系，但中国拒绝重新设立一条供两国军队使用的热线，以防止小规模冲突或意外升级。

Xi boycotted the weekend’s G20 summit in neighbouring India, in a major snub to the host country and rival for leader of the non-Western-aligned countries, sometimes referred to as the Global South.
习近平抵制了周末在邻国印度举行的G20峰会，这是对东道国和非西方结盟国家（有时被称为全球南方国家）领导人竞争对手的重大冷落。

Western diplomats say it was yet another example of China obstructing multilateral attempts to reach consensus on issues of global concern, including the war in Ukraine and climate change.
西方外交官说，这是中国阻挠多边努力就乌克兰战争和气候变化等全球关切问题达成共识的又一例证。

Asked if there was anyone who could persuade Xi to adopt a more collaborative posture, Wuttke said it was impossible.
当被问及是否有人能说服习近平采取更加合作的姿态时，武特克说这是不可能的。

“No, I see no possibility for anyone from abroad to influence him because the man has decided to be chairman of everything, and he makes the decisions,” he said.
"他说："不，我认为国外任何人都不可能对他施加影响，因为他已经决定担任一切事务的主席，并做出了决定。

“And hence, he cannot, for the sake of it – revise decisions.”
"因此，他不能为了修改决定而修改决定"。

‘De-risking is genius’ 去风险化是天才之举

China’s economic coercion and the supply chain gaps exposed by the pandemic have led to Western countries adopting policies of de-risking and diversification, setting up potential friction between businesses that have profited from their Chinese operations and governments that want to lessen their public’s dependence on authoritarian states.
中国的经济胁迫和疫情暴露出的供应链漏洞导致西方国家采取了降低风险和多样化的政策，这在从中国业务中获利的企业和希望减少民众对专制国家依赖的政府之间造成了潜在的摩擦。

Earlier this year, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Europe would be seeking to “de-risk” from China. This language has gone on to be adopted by the White House, the G7, Wuttke’s native Germany, Japan and, most recently, Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers.
今年早些时候，欧盟委员会主席乌苏拉-冯德莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen）表示，欧洲将寻求从中国 "去风险化"。白宫、七国集团、伍特克的祖国德国、日本以及最近的澳大利亚财长吉姆-查莫斯都采用了这一措辞。

Wuttke strongly backed the EU’s policy and said he was proud to have advised von der Leyen’s office and contributed to such a defining speech.
Wuttke 强烈支持欧盟的政策，并表示他很荣幸能为冯德莱恩的办公室提供建议，并为这一具有决定性意义的演讲做出贡献。

“De-risking was genius. It really distinguishes itself from decoupling,” he said.
他说："去风险是天才之举。它确实有别于脱钩，"他说。

He said de-risking was already happening, citing a “notable slowdown in foreign investment” in China. “Frankly speaking, China was the master in de-risking, they were teaching us for 15 years how they were trying to de-risk from Europe and the US,” he said.
他说，去风险化已经在发生，并列举了中国 "外商投资明显放缓 "的例子。"他说："坦率地说，中国是去风险的大师，15 年来，他们一直在教我们如何努力从欧洲和美国去风险。

Xi’s control sacrifices growth 习近平的控制牺牲了增长

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has already warned Australia’s economy would not be immune from China’s economic slowdown.
财政部长吉姆-查莫斯（Jim Chalmers）已经警告说，澳大利亚经济将无法免受中国经济放缓的影响。

Wuttke said Xi’s desire for total control would see the Chinese economy struggle, especially as the low-hanging policy fruits that had generated economic activity had already been plucked.
Wuttke 说，习近平希望实现全面控制，这将使中国经济举步维艰，尤其是在那些能促进经济活动的低垂政策果实已经被摘取的情况下。

“China will definitely have to live with a much lower growth projection ... this leadership is willing to sacrifice economic growth for the sake of ideology,” he said.
"他说："中国肯定将不得不忍受一个低得多的增长预测......这个领导层愿意为了意识形态而牺牲经济增长。

“The old equation was always that China does anything to add economic growth because that was the perception of what keeps us in office.
"以前的等式总是认为，中国会不惜一切代价增加经济增长，因为人们认为这是让我们留任的原因。

Graph showing China’s economic growth and inflation rates.
显示中国经济增长和通货膨胀率的图表。CREDIT:INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
国际货币基金组织

“Now what keeps the party in office is utter, 110 per cent control.”
"现在让党继续执政的是彻底的、110%的控制"

Wuttke said China’s tactics were deliberate and that the economic weakness invited the question of how stable the country could be in the “enhanced Xi Jinping echo chamber” that prevails in Beijing.
Wuttke 说，中国的策略是经过深思熟虑的，经济疲软带来的问题是，在北京盛行的 "强化习近平回声室 "中，中国能有多稳定。

“China presently does everything, so we understand China less, with a purpose, that of course is not conducive to trust and doing more in China,” he said.
"他说："中国现在什么都做，所以我们对中国的了解就少了，目的性就强了，这当然不利于对中国的信任，也不利于在中国做更多的事情。

“I’m not sure if that’s good news for the world.”
"我不确定这对世界来说是不是好消息"