• Industrial output, retail sales likely improved in August
  8 月份工业产出和零售销售可能有所改善
• Policymakers may want to wait before rolling out more easing
  在推出更多宽松政策之前，决策者可能需要再等等

By Bloomberg News 2023年9月14日

China’s economic activity likely improved in August, adding to a steady drip of clues that suggest the worst of this year’s downturn may be starting to pass.
中国的经济活动在 8 月份可能有所改善，这为表明今年最严重的经济衰退可能已经开始过去的一系列线索增添了砝码。

The peak summer holiday season drove a boom in spending on travel and hotels, keeping one of the few bright spots for the economy humming. Manufacturers reported an expansion in new orders for the first time in five months. A rush to sell more special local bonds to fund infrastructure projects aided construction at a time when activity is otherwise being challenged by the ongoing real estate slump.
暑假旺季带动了旅游和酒店消费的增长，使经济保持了为数不多的亮点之一。据制造商报告，新订单五个月来首次出现增长。为资助基础设施项目而急于出售更多特别地方债券的做法，在建筑业因房地产持续低迷而受到挑战之际，为建筑业提供了帮助。

Official data due Friday will provide the most comprehensive view yet of whether the economy is close to a turnaround. Figures for retail sales and industrial production are expected to show year-on-year growth in August outstripping the previous month’s pace, while real estate may have remained a significant overhang.
周五将公布的官方数据将最全面地反映经济是否已接近转机。零售销售和工业生产数据预计将显示，8 月份的同比增长速度将超过上个月，而房地产可能仍然是一个严重的问题。

Searching for a Bottom 寻找底部

Growth in China's industrial output, retail sales likely picked up in August
8 月份中国工业产值和零售额增速可能回升

Source: National Bureau of Statistics
资料来源：国家统计局：国家统计局

Note: No single month data for January. Jan.-Feb. data is combined by the NBS.
注：1 月份没有单月数据。1-2 月数据由国家统计局合并。

The National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release August economic data Friday at 10 a.m. local time. Here’s what to watch:
国家统计局预计将于当地时间周五上午 10 点公布 8 月份经济数据。以下是需要关注的内容：

Improved Production 提高产量

Industrial output is projected to have grown 3.9% last month from a year ago, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, faster than July’s increase.
据彭博社调查的经济学家预计，上月工业产值同比增长 3.9%，快于 7 月份的增幅。

Recent data suggested the nation’s manufacturers are through the worst of their struggles. An official gauge of the sector in August edged closer to the 50 mark that would signal activity has stopped contracting. New orders placed at factories expanded for the first time since March. Meanwhile, the decline in China’s exports narrowed in a sign overseas demand may be stabilizing.
最近的数据表明，美国的制造商已经度过了最艰难的时期。8 月份该行业的官方指数逐渐接近 50 的水平，这表明该行业的活动已停止收缩。工厂的新订单自 3 月份以来首次出现增长。同时，中国出口降幅收窄，表明海外需求可能趋于稳定。

Beijing’s policies have become “visibly more supportive” in the last month following a July meeting of the ruling Communist Party’s top officials, wrote Macquarie Group Ltd. economists including Larry Hu in a Monday note. Those measures have included attempts to bolster specific sectors, including consumer goods manufacturing.
麦格理集团（Macquarie Group Ltd.）的经济学家拉里-胡（Larry Hu）等人在周一的一份报告中写道，在执政的中国共产党高层于7月份召开会议之后，中国政府的政策在上个月变得 "明显更具支持性"。这些措施包括试图扶持消费品制造业等特定行业。

Summer Spending 夏季消费

Economists see retail sales growth accelerating to 3% in August from the prior year, above July’s pickup of 2.5%.
经济学家认为，8 月份的零售额同比增速将加快至 3%，高于 7 月份的 2.5%。

That’s likely the result of a busy summer travel season. Flights in China jumped 13.7% last month as compared to a similar time frame before the pandemic, according to VariFlight, an online platform tracking flight data.
这可能是夏季旅游旺季的结果。根据跟踪航班数据的在线平台 VariFlight 的数据，与疫情发生前的同期相比，中国上个月的航班量猛增了 13.7%。

China's Air Travel Boom 中国航空旅行的蓬勃发展

Domestic flight activity climbed further above pre-Covid levels in August
8 月份国内航班活动进一步攀升，超过科维德事件前的水平

Source: VariFlight 来源：VariFlightVariFlight

Government measures to spur spending on cars also seem to be taking hold. Sales of passenger vehicles grew in August from a year earlier, the first increase in three months.
政府刺激汽车消费的措施似乎也在发挥作用。8 月份乘用车销量同比增长，这是三个月来的首次增长。

Consumers have been spending more on services, like travel and eating out, than household goods, although there are signs that growth is now moderating.
消费者在旅游和外出就餐等服务性消费上的支出一直多于家庭用品，尽管有迹象表明目前的增长正在放缓。

The urban unemployment rate also likely remained relatively high at 5.3% in August, and while consumer prices rose last month — reversing the deflation seen in July — they just barely did so, suggesting demand remains weak.
8 月份的城市失业率也可能保持在 5.3% 的较高水平，虽然上个月的消费价格有所上涨，扭转了 7 月份的通货紧缩局面，但涨幅有限，表明需求依然疲软。

“With much of the pent-up travel demand released in the summer, we believe the economy might face new headwinds and has yet to stabilize,” Nomura Holdings Inc. economists led by Lu Ting wrote in a note this week. “Beijing may need to introduce more aggressive easing measures to ensure a real recovery.”
"野村控股公司以陆挺为首的经济学家在本周的一份报告中写道："随着大部分被压抑的旅游需求在夏季得到释放，我们认为经济可能面临新的阻力，尚未企稳。"中国政府可能需要推出更积极的宽松措施，以确保经济真正复苏。

Investment Woes 投资困境

Fixed-asset investment likely expanded 3.3% through the first eight months of the year, slowing slightly from the 3.4% growth rate seen in January-to-July.
今年前八个月，固定资产投资可能增长了 3.3%，与 1 月至 7 月的 3.4% 相比略有放缓。

The figures probably got some help from infrastructure, as Chinese provinces ramped up the sale of special local bonds to fund such projects and boost economic activity. Beijing is giving those regional governments until the end of September to issue their remaining bond quota for the year.
由于中国各省加大了地方专项债券的销售力度，以资助此类项目并促进经济活动，这些数字可能得到了基础设施方面的一些帮助。中国政府允许这些地区政府在 9 月底之前发行本年度剩余的债券配额。

Construction Equipment Sales Improve Slightly 建筑设备销售略有增长

Domestic sales rebounded from July while exports were little changed
国内销售较 7 月份有所反弹，出口则变化不大

Source: China Construction Machinery Association
来源：中国工程机械工业协会中国工程机械工业协会

Even so, the real estate sector’s woes still loom. Property investment likely shrank 8.9% in the January-to-August period, deepening from the 8.5% slump in the first seven months of 2023.
即便如此，房地产业的困境依然存在。1 月至 8 月期间，房地产投资可能萎缩了 8.9%，与 2023 年前 7 个月 8.5%的下滑幅度相比有所加深。

China eased property policies at the end of last month by cutting some mortgage rates and lowering down payment ratios for homebuyers, but consumers are still cautious. A spurt of home sales in big cities recorded immediately after those measures has since lost traction.
上月底，中国放宽了房地产政策，降低了部分房贷利率，并降低了购房者的首付比例，但消费者仍持谨慎态度。在这些措施出台后，大城市的房屋销售量随即出现井喷，但随后便失去了动力。

Stagnating Investment Expansion 投资扩张停滞

Property likely dragged while China stepped up infrastructure push
中国加强基础设施建设的同时，房地产可能受到拖累

Source: National Bureau of Statistics
资料来源：国家统计局：国家统计局

Note: NBS only releases year-to-data figures for investment. No single month data for January.
注：国家统计局只发布投资的逐年数据。1 月份无单月数据。

Holding Steady 保持稳定

Several economists see the need for the government to continue supporting the economy in the coming months if they hope to build momentum for the recovery.
一些经济学家认为，如果政府希望为经济复苏造势，就需要在未来几个月继续支持经济。

Big actions probably won’t materialize on Friday, though, as policymakers wait to see how effective recent measures have been. The People’s Bank of China is expected to keep policy rates unchanged following last month’s surprise cut to the rate on the one-year policy loans, called the medium-term lending facility. The central bank has never adjusted that rate two months in a row since it began publishing it regularly in 2016.
不过，周五可能不会有大的行动，因为政策制定者在等待观察近期措施的效果。在上个月意外下调一年期政策性贷款（即中期借贷便利）利率之后，中国人民银行预计将维持政策利率不变。自 2016 年开始定期公布该利率以来，央行从未连续两个月调整过该利率。

To keep liquidity stable, the PBOC will likely roll over the 400 billion yuan ($54.9 billion) worth of maturing one-year policy loans and inject slightly more cash into the banking system.
为保持流动性稳定，中国人民银行可能会将价值 4000 亿元人民币（549 亿美元）的到期一年期政策性贷款展期，并向银行系统注入更多现金。

There’s also room for more support on the fiscal side. Last year, authorities allowed for additional sales of special local bonds, a step they could repeat. Issuing an extra 500 billion yuan worth of bonds alongside what’s already budgeted could boost growth by 1.2 percentage points in the second half of the year, Bloomberg Economics estimates.
财政方面也有更多支持的空间。去年，政府允许增发地方专项债券，这一举措可能会再次出现。据彭博经济公司（Bloomberg Economics）估计，在已编入预算的基础上再增发 5000 亿元人民币的债券，可将下半年的经济增长提高 1.2 个百分点。

“Policymakers aren’t panicking over the state of the economy and are prepared for a drawn-out ‘tortuous’ recovery,” wrote Pantheon Macroeconomics Ltd. economists including Duncan Wrigley in a Monday note. “This means the policy approach will continue to be reactive and calibrated toward attaining a modest ‘about 5%’ GDP growth target.”
"包括邓肯-箭利（Duncan Wrigley）在内的万神殿宏观经济有限公司（Pantheon Macroeconomics Ltd.）经济学家在周一的一份报告中写道："政策制定者并没有对经济现状感到恐慌，他们已经做好了'曲折'复苏的准备。"这意味着政策方法将继续是被动的，并以实现'5%左右'的适度 GDP 增长目标为目标进行调整。