Salaries are falling in finance, technology and the “new economy.” That puts Xi Jinping’s campaign to restore confidence and revive growth at risk.
金融、科技和 "新经济 "领域的薪资正在下降。这使习近平恢复信心、重振增长的运动面临风险。

By Bloomberg News 2023 年 9 月 13 日

For decades, China’s biggest cities have been home to one of the world’s greatest economic success stories: a nearly unbroken rise in living standards that lifted millions into the middle class.
几十年来，中国最大的城市一直是世界上最成功的经济故事之一的发源地：生活水平几乎从未间断地提高，使数百万人步入中产阶级行列。

That trend is now coming to a halt, creating an under-the-radar threat to President Xi Jinping’s campaign to revive growth.
现在，这一趋势正在停止，对习近平主席的恢复增长运动造成了不小的威胁。

Hiring salaries in Shanghai and Beijing dropped by 9% and 6% respectively in the second quarter from a year ago, Zhaopin Ltd. data compiled by Bloomberg show. It’s the biggest slump since at least 2015 and a stark contrast with government figures indicating wages rose nationwide. For many white-collar workers, the blow has been compounded by companies quietly slashing benefits including travel and meal allowances. Prestigious sectors like finance — where senior bankers report compensation cuts of as much as 40% — and technology are suffering. But even the typically stable government jobs that employ vast swathes of China’s middle class are not immune.
彭博社汇编的招品有限公司数据显示，上海和北京第二季度的招聘薪资分别比去年同期下降了9%和6%。这是自至少 2015 年以来的最大跌幅，与政府数据显示的全国工资上涨形成鲜明对比。对于许多白领来说，公司悄然削减包括差旅和膳食津贴在内的各种福利加剧了这一打击。金融业（高级银行家的薪酬降幅高达 40%）和科技业等知名行业也深受其害。但是，即使是雇用了大量中国中产阶级的典型的稳定的政府工作也不能幸免。

The risk is a downward spiral that leaves workers cutting back further on spending even as Beijing tries to restore confidence. To escape the middle-income trap and keep a lid on social unrest, authorities must work out how to create better jobs for city dwellers. Yet China’s limited room for debt-fueled stimulus gives Xi few easy solutions.
其风险在于，即使中国政府努力恢复信心，但经济仍会螺旋式下滑，导致工人进一步削减开支。为了摆脱中等收入陷阱，抑制社会动荡，政府必须想办法为城市居民创造更好的就业机会。然而，中国的债务刺激政策空间有限，习近平没有什么简单的解决方案。

Hiring Wages Slump in China's Wealthiest Cities

中国最富裕城市雇佣工资下滑

Note: Data available since second half of 2015. Figures represent nominal wages.
注：数据自 2015 年下半年开始提供。数字代表名义工资。

“Unless we see a steady growth in disposable income, I don’t think consumption’s going to improve in China anytime soon,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis SA. “Everybody thinks Chinese consumers are not consuming because they feel there’s too much uncertainty, they don’t feel like it. Some people in China cannot consume.”
"Natixis SA首席亚太经济学家艾丽西亚-加西亚-埃雷罗（Alicia Garcia Herrero）说："除非我们看到可支配收入稳步增长，否则我认为中国的消费不会很快好转。"每个人都认为中国消费者不消费是因为他们觉得不确定性太多，他们不喜欢消费。中国有些人无法消费。

Conversations with 18 people employed in the private sector and the government, most of whom declined to give their full names discussing sensitive matters, illustrate a growing unease over job security and personal spending. The pain in China’s labor market goes well beyond its record youth unemployment rate. Despite growing resentment, many urban workers of all ages are willing to accept steep pay cuts, fewer frills and longer working hours just to hang on to a job.
在与 18 名私营企业和政府雇员的交谈中，他们中的大多数人在讨论敏感问题时拒绝透露全名，但他们的谈话表明，人们对工作保障和个人消费的不安与日俱增。中国劳动力市场的痛苦远不止创纪录的青年失业率。尽管不满情绪与日俱增，但许多不同年龄段的城市工人仍愿意接受大幅减薪、更少的装饰和更长的工作时间，只为保住一份工作。

Compensation Cuts 削减补偿金

Salaries are under pressure on multiple fronts. After three years of costly pandemic measures, many employers are struggling to deal with a slowdown that’s straining already tight budgets. For many more affluent businesses, the bigger challenge is Xi’s sweeping “common prosperity” campaign, aimed at reining in “the disorderly expansion of capital” in the private sector.
薪资面临多方面的压力。经过三年代价高昂的大流行病措施后，许多雇主正在努力应对经济放缓，使本已紧张的预算更加捉襟见肘。对许多更富裕的企业来说，更大的挑战是习近平全面推进的 "共同富裕 "运动，其目的是控制私营部门 "资本的无序扩张"。

Citic Securities Co., one of the country’s top investment banks, slashed some bankers’ basic salaries by up to 15%. Its rival China International Capital Corp. cut senior banker compensation, including bonuses, by more than 40%, Bloomberg News reported previously. CICC also instructed its bankers to fly coach and to book the cheapest “hard seats” on most trains.
中国顶级投资银行之一的中信证券股份有限公司削减了部分银行家的基本工资，降幅高达 15%。据彭博新闻社此前报道，其竞争对手中国国际金融有限公司（China International Capital Corp.中金公司还指示其银行家乘坐经济舱，并在大多数火车上预订最便宜的 "硬座"。

Eason, a business head at a commercial bank in Shanghai, is frustrated that his pay dropped 10% last year, despite double-digit growth at the institution and strong personal performance.
Eason 是上海一家商业银行的业务主管，尽管该机构实现了两位数的增长，个人业绩也非常出色，但他去年的薪酬却下降了 10%，这让他感到非常沮丧。

“On the one hand, authorities encourage households to increase consumption, but on the other hand they call for pay cuts and limits,” he said.
"他说："当局一方面鼓励家庭增加消费，另一方面又要求减薪和限薪。

Inside a shopping mall in Shanghai, in April.Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
4 月，上海一家购物中心内：Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

“It’s not easy for financial institutions to keep salaries stable,” he added. “Once you raise pay, you’ll most likely be summoned to authorities.”
"他补充说："金融机构要保持工资稳定并不容易。"一旦加薪，很可能会被传唤到有关部门"。

The consequences may reach much further than individual spending. One Hong Kong banker with mainland clients said that with fewer financial incentives and more emphasis on cutting risk, personal apathy is setting in and the financial industry is “lying flat.”
其后果可能远远超出个人消费。一位拥有内地客户的香港银行家说，由于金融激励措施减少，更多强调降低风险，个人变得冷漠，金融业 "躺平了"。

Benefits are also being chipped away, in finance and beyond. Chinese corporates often boost compensation with cash payments nominally aimed at improving one facet of life or another. But even these are now deemed too luxurious. This year, Eason’s bank replaced its usual summertime hot-weather subsidy with cans of Coca-Cola and sun visors.
在金融和其他领域，福利也在减少。中国企业经常通过现金支付来提高薪酬，名义上是为了改善生活的某个方面。但即便是这些，现在也被认为过于奢侈。今年，易迅所在的银行用可口可乐罐和遮阳板取代了通常的夏季高温补贴。

A Shanghai-based consultant at a multinational firm said his daily meal allowance was slashed by nearly 80% to $27. Huang, a manager at a new media company in Hangzhou, said their firm had stopped paying for late-night taxi rides, ended overseas travel for team-building events and closed its second cafeteria.
杭州一家新媒体公司的经理黄说，他们公司已停止支付深夜乘坐出租车的费用，停止了团队建设活动的海外旅行，并关闭了第二食堂。

Evening commuters in Hangzhou, in June.Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
6 月，杭州，傍晚的上班族：Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

“The company was aiming big for a public listing before the pandemic,” said Huang. “Now, the consensus is just trying to seize possible opportunity to survive.” They added that the firm has cut headcount by a third over the past three years and may let go of more people in the future.
"大流行之前，公司的目标是上市，"Huang 说。"现在，大家的共识是抓住可能的生存机会。他们补充说，公司在过去三年里已经裁员三分之一，未来可能还会裁员。

Quiet Firings 安静的解雇

Employees in the so-called new economy are suffering too.
所谓新经济时代的员工也在受苦。

In industries such as electric vehicles, batteries or solar and wind power, the average entry-level salary declined 3.6% to 13,755 yuan in June from a year ago, according to a private survey by Caixin Insight Group and Business Big Data Co. That’s the worst drop since at least 2015, despite double-digit growth in investments and exports. Wages declined again in August by 1.8% compared with a year earlier.
根据财新洞察集团（Caixin Insight Group）和商业大数据公司（Business Big Data Co., Ltd.）的一项非公开调查，在电动汽车、电池或太阳能和风能等行业，6月份的平均入门级工资比一年前下降了3.6%，降至13755元。这是至少自2015年以来最严重的降幅，尽管投资和出口都实现了两位数的增长。8 月份的工资与去年同期相比再次下降了 1.8%。

The once free-wheeling technology sector is still grappling with the fallout of the common prosperity crackdown, which has wiped out billions in market value over the past two years. While policymakers signaled an end to the clampdown in July, the industry’s prospects remain uncertain.
在过去的两年里，共同繁荣的打击行动使数十亿美元的市值化为乌有，曾经自由奔放的科技行业仍在努力应对这一影响。虽然政策制定者在 7 月发出了结束打压的信号，但该行业的前景仍不明朗。

The Alibaba Group headquarters campus in Hangzhou, in June.Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
6 月，位于杭州的阿里巴巴集团总部园区：沈奇来/彭博社

China’s giant tech sector cut tens of thousands of jobs in 2022 in an unprecedented wave of cost controls, and of those, the industry’s twin stars — Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. — let go more than 20,000 employees alone. Many laid-off workers are willing to accept up to a 50% pay cut for a new position, according to Prima Yi, a tech headhunter with Shanghai Jinfang Management Consultancy. Meanwhile, firms have become more cautious about offering pay increases and promotions to woo new candidates, she said.
2022 年，中国的巨型科技行业在史无前例的成本控制浪潮中裁员数万人，其中，该行业的双子星--阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司（Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ）和腾讯控股有限公司（Tencent Holdings Ltd. ）就裁员 2 万多人。- 其中，该行业的双子星--阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司和腾讯控股有限公司--就裁掉了 2 万多名员工。上海锦芳管理咨询公司的科技猎头Prima Yi表示，许多被裁员者愿意接受最多50%的降薪，以换取新职位。她说，与此同时，企业在提供加薪和晋升机会以吸引新求职者方面也变得更加谨慎。

Redundancies appear to be slowing, but quiet firings continue behind the scenes. One Shenzhen-based Tencent employee was asked to find a new job by her boss, who explained the human resources department would tell her next employer that she’d resigned. The strategy worked — when she took a new job with Alibaba in Beijing, she bagged a pay raise, although at 20% it was less than half the amount she’d come to expect as industry standard.
裁员似乎正在放缓，但幕后悄无声息的解雇仍在继续。一位在深圳工作的腾讯员工被她的老板要求另谋高就，她的老板解释说，人力资源部门会告诉她的下一任雇主她已经辞职。这个策略奏效了--当她在北京的阿里巴巴找到新工作时，她获得了加薪，尽管加薪幅度只有 20%，还不到她所期望的行业标准的一半。

Local Government Strain 地方政府的压力

Even China’s “iron rice bowl” — jobs that typically guarantee a modest but stable paycheck for life — is showing cracks. The government is trimming a combination of bonuses, cash subsidies and base pay for many employees, according to interviews with 10 local civil servants.
就连中国的 "铁饭碗"--通常能保证终身获得微薄但稳定薪水的工作--也出现了裂痕。根据对 10 名地方公务员的采访，政府正在削减许多员工的奖金、现金补贴和基本工资。

As a prison officer in a city in northern Guangdong province, Jason Wu has enjoyed annual pay rises for half a decade. But his bonus has been shrinking since 2021 without any official explanation, leaving his overall compensation 15% lower. After spending most of the pandemic barred from travel – even to attend his grandmother’s funeral – and socializing, he’s dismayed.
作为广东省北部某市的一名狱警，吴杰森已经享受了长达半年的年度加薪。但自 2021 年以来，他的奖金在没有任何官方解释的情况下不断缩水，使他的总报酬降低了 15%。在大流行病的大部分时间里，他被禁止旅行--甚至不能参加祖母的葬礼--和社交活动，这让他感到沮丧。

Cuts like Jason’s are a sign of the strain on local governments as China’s property crisis deepens. Already weakened by pandemic-control costs, the massive drop in income from land sales has hit governments hard, and civil servants in poorer provinces are suffering most. In one heavily indebted northern province, an official said his overall pay had been cut by 35% while another reported his bonus had been close to zero for three years.
随着中国房地产危机的加深，像杰森这样的裁员表明了地方政府所承受的压力。土地出让收入的大幅下降已经削弱了政府的抗疫能力，而贫困省份的公务员更是首当其冲。在一个负债累累的北方省份，一位官员说他的总工资减少了 35%，而另一位官员则称他的奖金已经连续三年接近于零。

A pedestrian passes empty shops near rows of apartment buildings in Hegang, in March.Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
3 月，行人经过鹤岗一排排公寓楼附近的空店：Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

Some government employees have been asked to return bonuses or cash subsidies going back as far as five years. For those without savings, repayment means a drastic drop in their monthly wages. Two officials in Chengdu and Shenzhen said they’ve been told to return payments designated for alleviating the impact of extreme climate events like flooding – in addition to coping with an overall drop in salary.
一些政府雇员被要求退还长达五年的奖金或现金补贴。对于那些没有积蓄的人来说，退还意味着他们的月工资将大幅下降。成都和深圳的两名官员说，他们被要求退还指定用于减轻洪水等极端气候事件影响的款项，此外还要应对整体工资的下降。

Plunging Confidence 信心骤降

Beijing has ramped up restrictions on sensitive or unflattering information about the nation’s faltering recovery as growth has slowed, making pay cuts increasingly hard to quantify.
随着经济增长放缓，中国政府加强了对有关国家复苏乏力的敏感或不光彩信息的限制，这使得减薪越来越难以量化。

Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance & Economics and a sometime adviser to the Politburo, is one of the few prominent Chinese economists to speak out on the issue of wages. “If we let the pay cuts become a trend, this will be very bad for the recovery of confidence and consumption,” he wrote in a May article. “We must not let the downward spiral of falling prices and income be formed.”
上海财经大学校长、时任中央政治局顾问的刘元春是为数不多的就工资问题发声的中国著名经济学家之一。"他在 5 月份的一篇文章中写道："如果我们让减薪成为一种趋势，这将对信心和消费的恢复非常不利。"我们决不能让物价和收入的下降形成螺旋式下降"。

But wage pressures are now spilling over into broader sentiment. While nationwide salaries rose after the pandemic, confidence in the job market and incomes plunged to new lows. For the past five quarters, the Income Confidence Index — a gauge measuring near-term income expectations — has indicated an expected contraction in future income, according to the central bank’s quarterly survey published in late June. It’s a record slump in a dataset that dates back to 2001.
但是，工资压力现在正蔓延到更广泛的情绪中。虽然大流行病后全国工资上涨，但人们对就业市场和收入的信心却跌至新低。根据央行 6 月底公布的季度调查，在过去的五个季度里，收入信心指数（衡量近期收入预期的指标）显示未来收入预期缩减。在一个可追溯到 2001 年的数据集中，这是一个创纪录的下滑。

Biggest Drop in Recruitment Salaries Since 2016 自 2016 年以来招聘薪酬的最大降幅

Some workers are considering moving out of big cities as a result.
一些工人因此考虑搬离大城市。

Tech worker Li worries that gender discrimination will make her job more precarious as she approaches age 35 and thinks about starting a family. A layoff would make her Beijing mortgage impossible to manage. So she and her husband may relocate to Xi’an, giving up access to better-quality healthcare and education in return for lower living costs.
科技工作者李（音译）担心，在她接近 35 岁并考虑组建家庭时，性别歧视会使她的工作更加不稳定。如果裁员，她在北京的房贷将无法偿还。因此，她和丈夫可能会搬到西安，放弃享受更优质的医疗和教育服务，以换取更低的生活成本。

Continued urbanization is key to the economy’s transition into high-value services and production. If the promise of a better life in the big city loses its appeal, avoiding the middle-income trap only gets harder.
持续的城市化是经济向高价值服务和生产转型的关键。如果在大城市过上更好生活的承诺失去了吸引力，避免陷入中等收入陷阱只会变得更加困难。

China’s 10 biggest cities only account for about 12% of the country’s population. And a slowdown in inflation this year — prices rose by the least in over a decade during the January-August period — may lift the living standard of those who still experience wage growth. But the spending problem will be compounded if salary stagnation spreads beyond the middle-class jobs that dominate metropolises to further deepen deflationary pressures and the property slump.
中国十大城市的人口仅占全国人口的 12%左右。今年通胀放缓--1-8 月份物价涨幅为十多年来最低--可能会提高那些工资仍在增长的人的生活水平。但是，如果工资停滞不前的现象蔓延到大都市中占主导地位的中产阶级工作岗位之外，进一步加深通货紧缩压力和房地产下滑，那么支出问题就会变得更加复杂。

Wages in "New Economy" Sector Stagnate 新经济 "部门的工资停滞不前

“If wage declines are happening for white-collar workers, that is quite a worrying sign with respect to the broader structural concern about economic rebalancing,” said Eli Friedman, a professor at Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations who specializes in Chinese labor politics and urbanization. To increase domestic consumption, he added, “individuals and households need to have more money and more confidence about the future.”
"康奈尔大学工业与劳工关系学院教授伊莱-弗里德曼（Eli Friedman）专门研究中国的劳工政治和城市化问题，他说："如果白领工人的工资出现下降，那么就经济再平衡这一更广泛的结构性问题而言，这是一个相当令人担忧的迹象。他补充说，要增加国内消费，"个人和家庭需要有更多的钱，对未来更有信心"。

Older Workers 老年工人

Tougher working conditions and a slowing economy risk undermining the implicit social contract in China. For decades, millions of people have accepted limited personal freedoms in exchange for a better life. Now the opportunities — for a better job, more money and the chance to buy a home guaranteed to make you richer — appear to be fading.
更严格的工作条件和经济放缓有可能破坏中国隐性的社会契约。几十年来，数百万人接受了有限的个人自由，以换取更好的生活。现在，这些机会--更好的工作、更多的钱和买房致富的机会--似乎正在消失。

Under-25s are bearing the brunt of this shift. Official statistics in June showed more than one in five could not find a job, before China stopped publishing the numbers. But the data also point to tougher conditions for older workers in cities, who are hanging onto jobs for longer at a moment when they’re also expected to put in more hours.
25 岁以下的年轻人在这一转变中首当其冲。六月份的官方统计数据显示，在中国停止公布这些数据之前，每五个人中就有一人找不到工作。但这些数据也表明，城市中年龄较大的工人的工作条件更加艰苦，他们在工作岗位上坚守的时间更长，而同时他们也需要付出更多的时间。

Since 2020, the official jobless rate in 31 major cities has exceeded the national average, but unemployment among staff aged 25 to 59 reached a record low of 4.1% in May and June. Meanwhile, average working hours have hovered close to 50 a week since April – the highest level since data began in 2018.
自 2020 年以来，31 个大城市的官方失业率已超过全国平均水平，但 25 至 59 岁员工的失业率在 5 月和 6 月达到了 4.1%的历史新低。与此同时，平均工时自4月以来一直徘徊在每周50小时附近，这是自2018年有数据以来的最高水平。

University graduates attend a job fair in Wuhan on August 10.Source: AFP/Getty Images
8 月 10 日，大学毕业生在武汉参加招聘会：法新社/盖蒂图片社

“Older workers in big cities have become willing to accept lower wages and longer hours in order to save up and increase their sense of security,” said Gao Shanwen, chief economist at Essence Securities who has advised former premier Li Keqiang and various government agencies in the past. “This has squeezed out younger workers.”
"精华证券首席经济学家高善文曾为前总理李克强和多个政府机构提供咨询，他表示："大城市中的老年工人已经愿意接受更低的工资和更长的工时，以积攒资金和增加安全感。"这已经挤出了年轻的工人"。

China doesn’t permit labor unions that are independent from the Communist Party or the government, leaving workers with few opportunities to bargain with employers.
中国不允许成立独立于共产党或政府的工会，这使得工人几乎没有机会与雇主讨价还价。

Downward Spiral 螺旋式下降

Ensuring the labor market can provide enough jobs is one of the government’s top priorities, with various measures in place to drive growth, such as expanding recruitment by state-owned enterprises.
确保劳动力市场能够提供足够的工作岗位是政府的首要任务之一，政府采取了各种措施来推动增长，如扩大国有企业的招聘规模。

But so far, authorities haven’t launched any significant efforts to boost wages. Household savings rose by 11.9 trillion yuan in the first eight months of this year – up 10% from a year earlier, official statistics show. That’s after savings soared 80% in 2022.
但到目前为止，政府还没有推出任何提高工资的重大举措。官方统计数据显示，今年前八个月家庭储蓄增加了 11.9 万亿元，比去年同期增长了 10%。这是继 2022 年储蓄飙升 80% 之后的又一增长。

In the US, the Biden administration turned to cash handouts to boost post-pandemic consumption and confidence. But China is unlikely to follow suit. While the government has made numerous modest policy announcements to support real estate and other sectors, Xi has previously lashed out at “welfarism” as an approach that encourages “lazy people.”
在美国，拜登政府转而通过派发现金来刺激大流行后的消费和信心。但中国不太可能效仿。虽然中国政府已宣布了许多适度的政策来支持房地产和其他行业，但习近平此前曾抨击 "福利主义"，认为这种做法鼓励了 "懒人"。

For Jason Wu, it’s unclear if his paycheck will ever return to what he once considered the norm.
对于 Jason Wu 来说，他的薪水能否回到他曾经认为的正常水平还不得而知。

“No one explained to us if those bonuses will still be paid, or when they may be paid,” said Wu. “But I don’t really need them to tell me. I just need to look at how bad the economy is.”
"吴说："没有人向我们解释这些奖金是否还会支付，或者何时支付。"但我真的不需要他们告诉我。我只需要看看经济有多糟糕。