It will be harder to stop than the contest of the cold war
这将比冷战的较量更难阻止

Aug 29th 20232023 年 8 月 29 日 经济学人

From offices in America’s State Department and Russia’s Ministry of Defence, officials take turns “pinging” each other every couple of hours to check the line is working. Then, almost always, silence. It is the dying heartbeat of global nuclear arms control.

美国国务院和俄罗斯国防部的官员每隔几个小时轮流互相“ping”一次，以检查线路是否正常工作。然后，几乎总是沉默。这是全球核军控的垂死心跳。

Until March the direct link between the Nuclear Risk Reduction Centres (nrrcs) of the world’s two biggest nuclear powers was alive with messages informing each other about the movement of missiles and bombers. Under New start, which came into force in 2011 and which includes caps on long-range nuclear weapons, there were 2,000-odd such notifications in 2022. No longer. The half-yearly updates on warhead numbers have stopped, too. And there have been no on-site inspections since March 2020.

直到三月份，世界上两个最大核大国的核风险降低中心（NRRC）之间的直接联系仍然活跃，相互通报导弹和轰炸机的动向。根据 2011 年生效的《新起点》，其中包括对远程核武器的限制，到 2022 年，此类通知数量已超过 2,000 份。但现在不再了。弹头数量半年更新一次也已停止。自2020年3月以来，未再进行过现场检查。

For now, Russia and America still abide by the treaty’s confines on warhead numbers. They also exchange notifications of upcoming ballistic-missile launches under a previous accord (they have swapped only a few such messages in recent months). And they still hear from each other through separate multilateral channels used for the dozen-odd agreements requiring notification through nrrcs.

目前，俄罗斯和美国仍然遵守该条约对弹头数量的限制。他们还根据之前的协议交换即将发射弹道导弹的通知（近几个月他们只交换了一些此类信息）。他们仍然通过单独的多边渠道相互听取意见，这些渠道用于需要通过 NRRC 进行通知的十多个协议。

Nevertheless, the world is drifting towards a new nuclear arms race. It will probably be harder to stop than that of the cold war, not least because of the complexity of three-sided deterrence involving a rising China. The danger of “a chain reaction that would destroy the entire world”—the words spoken by Robert Oppenheimer, the father of the atomic bomb, at the end of Christopher Nolan’s eponymous film—looms ever larger.

然而，世界正在走向新的核军备竞赛。它可能比冷战更难阻止，尤其是因为涉及崛起的中国的三边威慑的复杂性。 “毁灭整个世界的连锁反应”——原子弹之父罗伯特·奥本海默在克里斯托弗·诺兰的同名电影结尾处所说的话——的危险越来越大。

That humanity averted annihilation owes much to the many agreements between America and the Soviet Union, now Russia, that limited nuclear weapons and built trust even as each retained the means to destroy the other. They brought down the global nuclear stockpile from 70,400 warheads in 1986 to 12,500 today.

人类避免了毁灭在很大程度上要归功于美国和苏联（现在的俄罗斯）之间的许多协议，这些协议限制核武器并建立信任，尽管双方都保留了摧毁对方的手段。他们将全球核库存从 1986 年的 70,400 枚弹头减少到今天的 12,500 枚。

That era is ending, for four main reasons: America’s abandonment of agreements, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s nuclear build-up and disruptive technology. Begin with America. In 2002 President George W. Bush withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (which limited anti-missile defences), pointing to the dangers from North Korea and Iran. And in 2019 another Republican president, Donald Trump, pulled out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (which eliminated that category of missiles), citing cheating by Russia and China’s rise.

那个时代正在结束，原因有四个：美国放弃协议、俄罗斯入侵乌克兰、中国的核建设和颠覆性技术。从美国开始。 2002 年，乔治·W·布什总统因朝鲜和伊朗的威胁而退出了《反弹道导弹条约》（该条约限制了反导防御）。 2019 年，另一位共和党总统唐纳德·特朗普以俄罗斯的欺骗和中国的崛起为由，退出了《中程核力量条约》（该条约取消了此类导弹）。

Democratic presidents have been keener on arms control. New start was negotiated by Barack Obama and then renewed for five years by Joe Biden in 2021. It limits each side’s “strategic” nuclear weapons (long-distance arms with high destructive power) to 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (icbms), bombers and submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

民主党总统对军备控制更加热衷。新的开始是由巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)谈判达成的，然后由乔·拜登(Joe拜登)于2021年续签五年。它将双方的“战略”核武器（具有高破坏力的远程武器）限制在1,550枚部署的弹头和700枚部署的洲际弹道导弹（icbms） ）、轰炸机和潜射弹道导弹。

Even supporters admit its flaws. New start does not control “non-strategic” or “tactical” weapons, usually smaller ones for battlefield use. Russia is thought to have 1,800 of them and America just 200. Nor does it capture Russia’s work on things such as nuclear-propelled cruise missiles and torpedoes. In turn, Russia complains that the nuclear arsenals of Britain and France, American allies with more than 200 warheads each, are excluded. New start is set to expire in February 2026, and there is little prospect of a follow-on deal. In less than three years, the last major restraint on the world’s nuclear stockpile may well be removed.

甚至支持者也承认其缺陷。新起点不控制“非战略”或“战术”武器，通常是用于战场的较小武器。俄罗斯被认为拥有 1,800 枚，而美国只有 200 枚。它也没有记录俄罗斯在核推进巡航导弹和鱼雷等方面的工作。反过来，俄罗斯抱怨英国和法国这两个美国盟友的核武库被排除在外，两国各自拥有超过 200 枚弹头。新合同将于 2026 年 2 月到期，后续交易的可能性很小。在不到三年的时间里，对世界核储备的最后一个主要限制很可能被取消。

For that blame Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and its repeated threats to use nuclear weapons. Western countries have armed Ukraine, but have not sent their own troops for fear of “World War III”, as Mr Biden put it. In February Russia said it would “suspend” New start, halting notifications. America responded in kind in March and June. Every day since then, each side has become slightly less certain about the other’s posture, magnifying the risk of nuclear brinkmanship—especially at a time of internal turmoil in the Kremlin. On August 22nd Poland said Russia had started moving tactical weapons to Belarus.

这要归咎于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以及一再威胁使用核武器。正如拜登所说，西方国家已经武装了乌克兰，但由于担心“第三次世界大战”而没有派遣自己的军队。俄罗斯二月份表示将“暂停”新的启动，停止通知。美国在三月和六月做出了同样的回应。此后的每一天，双方都对对方的姿态变得更加不确定，从而放大了核边缘政策的风险——尤其是在克里姆林宫内部动荡之际。 8月22日，波兰表示俄罗斯已开始向白俄罗斯运送战术武器。

Then there is China, which is already racing to build up its nuclear force. Unconstrained by treaties, it has long observed a “minimal deterrence” policy with a few hundred warheads. But the Pentagon estimates its stockpile will grow to perhaps 1,500 by 2035. That is close to New start‘s deployed limit.

然后是中国，它已经在竞相建设核力量。它不受条约约束，长期以来一直奉行拥有数百枚弹头的“最低威慑”政策。但五角大楼估计，到 2035 年，其库存可能会增加到 1,500 枚。这接近“新起点”的部署极限。

Nuclear tensions could spread further and unpredictably. India, which has an unresolved border dispute with China, may feel compelled to increase its stockpile, currently estimated at more than 160 warheads. That in turn may prompt Pakistan, with a similar number, to build up. North Korea, with perhaps 30 warheads, is intensively testing icbms. And Iran has become, in effect, a threshold nuclear state.

核紧张局势可能会不可预测地进一步蔓延。印度与中国的边界争端尚未解决，因此可能会觉得有必要增加其弹头库存，目前估计有超过 160 枚弹头。这反过来可能会促使拥有类似数量的巴基斯坦进行建设。朝鲜大约拥有 30 枚弹头，正在密集测试洲际弹道导弹。事实上，伊朗已经成为一个有核国家的门槛。

New technologies could aggravate matters. Hypersonic missiles are harder to detect and shoot down than ballistic ones. Improvements in sensors and accuracy heighten worries about a disabling surprise attack. And the spread of artificial intelligence (ai) raises questions of how far nuclear war might be fought by computers.

新技术可能会使问题变得更加严重。高超音速导弹比弹道导弹更难被发现和击落。传感器和准确性的改进加剧了人们对突然袭击致残的担忧。人工智能 (ai) 的传播引发了这样的问题：核战争可以由计算机打到什么程度。

In response, America has been flashing its nuclear sabre, if not quite rattling it. Its ballistic-missile submarines, which usually lurk unseen for months-long patrols, have been surfacing around the world of late. In July the USS Kentucky moored in the South Korean port of Busan, and the USS Tennessee called at Faslane in Scotland. In May senior naval commanders from Japan and South Korea embarked the USS Maine off Guam. Last October the USS West Virginia popped up in the Arabian Sea, in an apparent signal to Iran, for a visit by the head of America’s Central Command.

作为回应，美国一直亮出核武刀，尽管还没有完全惊动它。它的弹道导弹潜艇通常在长达数月的巡逻中不被发现，但最近已在世界各地浮出水面。 7月，肯塔基号航空母舰停泊在韩国釜山港，田纳西号航空母舰停靠在苏格兰的法斯兰。 5月，日本和韩国的高级海军指挥官在关岛附近登上了缅因号航空母舰。去年十月，美国海军西弗吉尼亚号突然出现在阿拉伯海，这显然是向伊朗发出信号，欢迎美国中央司令部司令的访问。

The “silent service” is no longer silent. “You can’t have a credible deterrent without communicating your capabilities,” Rear Admiral Jeffrey Jablon, commander of America’s submarine force in the Indo-Pacific, told Breaking Defense. “If the adversary doesn’t know anything about that specific deterrent, it’s not a deterrent.”

“沉默的服务”不再沉默。美国印太潜艇部队司令、海军少将杰弗里·贾布隆对《突破防御》杂志表示：“如果不传达你的能力，你就不可能拥有可信的威慑力。” “如果对手对具体威慑一无所知，那么它就不是威慑。”

America wants to reassure allies that its “extended deterrence”—the promise to defend them from nuclear attack even if they eschew nuclear weapons—remains strong. Some in Poland and South Korea want America to store b61 nuclear gravity bombs in their countries. It has resisted. But showing “boomer” subs serves as warning to foes and reassurance to friends.

美国希望向盟友保证，其“延伸威慑”——即使他们避免使用核武器，也能保护他们免受核攻击的承诺——依然强大。波兰和韩国的一些人希望美国在他们的国家储存b61核重力炸弹。它已经反抗了。但展示“婴儿潮一代”潜艇可以作为对敌人的警告和对朋友的保证。

America is busy modernising all three legs of its nuclear “triad” with new ground, air and sea systems. An unspoken aim is to rev up the nuclear industrial base to produce more weapons in future, should they be needed. Some want to go further. A paper in March by the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, a government-funded institute that among other things designs nuclear warheads, said America’s current nuclear force is “only marginally sufficient”. America should expand it when New start expires by “expeditious uploading”, deploying weapons currently held in reserve, for instance as multiple warheads on icbms; before then, it should demonstrate the ability to do so.

美国正忙于通过新的地面、空中和海上系统对其核“三位一体”的所有三个支柱进行现代化改造。一个不言而喻的目标是加快核工业基础，以便在未来需要时生产更多武器。有些人想走得更远。劳伦斯·利弗莫尔实验室（Lawrence Livermore Laboratory）是一家由政府资助、主要设计核弹头的机构，三月份发表的一篇论文称，美国目前的核力量“仅勉强够用”。美国应该在新起点到期时通过“迅速上传”来扩大这一范围，部署目前储备的武器，例如洲际弹道导弹上的多弹头；在此之前，它应该展示这样做的能力。

America has a greater “upload capacity” than Russia. The Federation of American Scientists, which campaigns to minimise global risks, calculates that from the current total of about 1,670 deployed strategic warheads each (it uses different counting rules from those for New start), America could within a couple of years deploy 3,570 compared with 2,629 for Russia. Some experts worry that big powers might also resume testing nuclear weapons, discussed in the Trump years.

美国的“上传能力”比俄罗斯更大。旨在最大程度降低全球风险的美国科学家联合会计算出，根据目前部署的战略弹头总数约 1,670 枚（其计算规则与新起点的计算规则不同），美国可以在几年内部署 3,570 枚，而俄罗斯为 2,629。一些专家担心，大国也可能恢复核武器试验，这在特朗普时代就曾讨论过。

Talking of an “inflection” point” in the nuclear balance, Jake Sullivan, Mr Biden’s national-security adviser, declared in June that America was ready to discuss arms control with Russia and China “without preconditions”. Neither is rushing to take up his offer. Given its heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia is either too aggrieved or too reliant on nuclear weapons to consider a new accord. China, for its part, seems uninterested in limits, possibly until it achieves parity with America.

拜登的国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文 (Jake Sullivan) 在谈到核平衡的“拐点”时宣称，美国准备“无条件”与俄罗斯和中国讨论军备控制问题。两人都不急于接受他的提议。鉴于在乌克兰遭受的惨重损失，俄罗斯要么过于愤慨，要么过于依赖核武器，以至于无法考虑达成新协议。就中国而言，它似乎对限制不感兴趣，可能直到它达到与美国平起平坐为止。

Indeed, parity has been the basis of arms control between America and Russia. But it is harder to agree on when three powers are involved. America, in particular, worries Russia and China might ally against it, given that they have declared a “friendship without limits” and conduct joint air and sea patrols. Mr Sullivan insists that America does not need “to outnumber the combined total of our competitors” to deter them. Nevertheless, the pressure for America to increase its numbers may prove irresistible, argues James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, an American think-tank. As long as America’s targeting policy rests on “counterforce”—aiming nuclear weapons at the other’s nuclear sites to neutralise them—more weapons in the hands of rivals will mean that America will need more, too.

事实上，对等一直是美俄之间军控的基础。但当涉及三种权力时，就很难达成一致。美国尤其担心俄罗斯和中国可能结盟反对它，因为两国已宣布建立“无限的友谊”并进行联合空中和海上巡逻。沙利文先生坚称，美国不需要“数量超过我们竞争对手的总和”来阻止他们。然而，美国智库卡内基国际和平基金会的詹姆斯·阿克顿认为，美国增加其人数的压力可能是不可抗拒的。只要美国的瞄准政策仍停留在“反制力量”上——将核武器瞄准对方的核设施以压制它们——对手手中拥有更多武器就意味着美国也需要更多武器。

Destroyer of worlds世界毁灭者

Eric Edelman, the Pentagon’s former under-secretary for policy under Mr Bush, puts it differently, recalling cold-war reckonings about the ability to absorb a first strike and still be able to inflict unacceptable damage on a foe: “If you’ve got two adversaries with 1,500 weapons each and one launched a strike and you ride it out, then retaliate: what reserve do you have left to deal with the other adversary?” He adds: “We don’t really know yet what the right number is, but it’s probably north of 1,550.”

布什领导下的前五角大楼负责政策的副部长埃里克·埃德尔曼(Eric Edelman)提出了不同的说法，他回顾了冷战时期关于承受第一次打击的能力并仍然能够对敌人造成不可接受的伤害的计算：“如果你有两个对手各拥有 1,500 件武器，其中一人发起攻击，你安然度过，然后进行报复：你还剩下什么储备来对付另一个对手？”他补充道：“我们还不知道正确的数字是多少，但可能在 1,550 以上。”

Given the poor prospects for new treaties to limit nuclear weapons, America is exploring less formal arrangements with China to prevent crises turning into conflict. Mr Sullivan proposed, for instance, extending the system of hotlines and notifications with Russia to all five permanent members of the un Security Council. But the Chinese response has been dispiriting. He summarised it thus: “If you wear a seat belt in a car, you’re going to be incentivised to drive faster and more crazy, and then you’ll have a crash. So, in a way, better not to have the seat belt.”

鉴于限制核武器的新条约前景黯淡，美国正在探索与中国达成不太正式的安排，以防止危机演变成冲突。例如，沙利文先生提议将与俄罗斯的热线和通知系统扩展到联合国安理会所有五个常任理事国。但中国的反应却令人沮丧。他这样总结道：“如果你在车里系上安全带，你就会被激励开得更快、更疯狂，然后你就会发生车祸。所以，从某种程度上来说，最好不要系安全带。”

Controlling the use of artificial intelligence is even harder, given that it cannot be seen and counted as icbms can. Even if ai can help decision-making, America, Britain and France have pushed for a norm requiring that there should always be “a man in the loop” when it comes to the use of nuclear weapons.

控制人工智能的使用更加困难，因为它无法像洲际弹道导弹那样被看到和计算。即使人工智能可以帮助决策，美国、英国和法国也已推动制定一项规范，要求在使用核武器时始终应有“一个人参与其中”。

Back in the State Department, America’s nrrc remains fully staffed, with 40-odd people tending the lines, hoping for better times between Washington and Moscow. “Maintaining that line in times of good relations is important; it’s much more important when tensions rise, because the potential impact of miscalculations grows as other channels are strained,” says its director, Jody Daniel. A Russian speaker is always on hand. In a wiser world, there would be a Chinese speaker, too. On screen Oppenheimer is told that he has given people “the power to destroy themselves”. The question now is whether humanity still has the power to save itself in the face of new nuclear nightmares. ■

回到国务院，美国国家铁路监管中心仍然配备齐全，有 40 多人在排队等候，希望华盛顿和莫斯科之间能有更好的时光。 “在关系良好的时期保持这条路线很重要；当紧张局势加剧时，这一点就更加重要，因为随着其他渠道的紧张，误判的潜在影响也会增加，”该公司主管乔迪·丹尼尔(Jody Daniel)表示。讲俄语的人随时待命。在一个更明智的世界里，也会有一个讲中文的人。屏幕上奥本海默被告知，他赋予了人们“毁灭自己的力量”。现在的问题是，面对新的核噩梦，人类是否仍有能力拯救自己。 ■